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Forums - Sales Discussion - Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

 

How long util Switch exceeds "X1 family" in sales.

2 years!!! Switch for the... 177 27.79%
 
3 years, strong sales. be... 202 31.71%
 
4 years. It's hard, but ... 134 21.04%
 
5 years, or more. X1 sale... 49 7.69%
 
Never. Ya can't beat &q... 75 11.77%
 
Total:637
DonFerrari said:
flashfire926 said:

Again, people deemed the game a "flop" because of the huge mess it was launch, not because of its sales, which were just fine. 

 

By your userbase logic, Forza 5 had phenomenal sales because the day it ended up doing 2m plus when the console had less than a 5m userbase.

2M for a franchise that sold 5+M before isn't phenomenal, but being a release title it done good.

And all the time I'm putting that the size of the userbase was the least relevant portion so the userbase being under 5M wasn't the biggest obstacle, but sure considering 5M userbase for FM5 versus what FM6 had would make some impact (but in this case because 5M is really small userbase while 30 to 60M would make very irrelevant difference).

What are you basing your facts off Don? Bundles can also make a big differecne weather a game sells 2m or not. DC (Where i was from) was bundled with most PS4s while FM6 was only bundled in the expensive deals. 

How do you know that DC didnt just reach 2m based off the average coustomer purchasing the cheapest PS4 bundles?

(Example) If you have a console selling 300k a week and doubling the sales of there competitor (Xbox) and 50% of PS4s came with DC and 50% came with FM6. Than DC has a handicap of selling more based off just PS4's selling. Thats not exactly doing wonders if one game is being basically given away to more customers. Yes that works for Xbox aswell. There is never an accurate figure anymore. Digital and Bundles now make it extremly hard for these figures to be accurate.

UC4 had a massive sales boost at Xmas time because you couldnt buy PS4s without it being including. So its a free sale and a free carry up the charts. I mean how did UC4 hit 4m sales than in a short period at Xmas time double its sales while PS4 hardware sales also doubled? I see what they did there. If Halo 5 was bundled with the cheapest XB1 bundles than it would probably be sitting on 7m by now. For some reason MS dont bundle there games as much as Sony do with theres. Horizon is another game i see bundled all the time. *IMPORTANT* When i say bundled there games i mean offering many types of bundles with the same game.

And dont tell me people buy bundles based off the games they like nonsense. I see customers buy the systems with the best value first and what is new to the market. I have plenty of friends who dont even care for the games that come with the consoles, aslong as its a good deal. Ironically i know a friend who brought a PS4 with DC included and told me he traded it for cash minutes after buying the PS4 just to give him an even better deal for his PS4. That DC game still counted as a Sale to Sony.

This is why comparing sales dont make sense in the modern era of gaming.

It all comes down to who bundles there game the most and who discounts there games better. In other words MS could simply bundle FM6 with every XB1 console and the game will sell  extremly well on the charts. Is it making MS money, no however who cares for buiness decisions and profits right? Aslong as it sells X amount it doesnt matter *Says the modern gamer*



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Azzanation said:
DonFerrari said:

2M for a franchise that sold 5+M before isn't phenomenal, but being a release title it done good.

And all the time I'm putting that the size of the userbase was the least relevant portion so the userbase being under 5M wasn't the biggest obstacle, but sure considering 5M userbase for FM5 versus what FM6 had would make some impact (but in this case because 5M is really small userbase while 30 to 60M would make very irrelevant difference).

What are you basing your facts off Don? Bundles can also make a big differecne weather a game sells 2m or not. DC (Where i was from) was bundled with most PS4s while FM6 was only bundled in the expensive deals. 

How do you know that DC didnt just reach 2m based off the average coustomer purchasing the cheapest PS4 bundles?

(Example) If you have a console selling 300k a week and doubling the sales of there competitor (Xbox) and 50% of PS4s came with DC and 50% came with FM6. Than DC has a handicap of selling more based off just PS4's selling. Thats not exactly doing wonders if one game is being basically given away to more customers. Yes that works for Xbox aswell. There is never an accurate figure anymore. Digital and Bundles now make it extremly hard for these figures to be accurate.

UC4 had a massive sales boost at Xmas time because you couldnt buy PS4s without it being including. So its a free sale and a free carry up the charts. I mean how did UC4 hit 4m sales than in a short period at Xmas time double its sales while PS4 hardware sales also doubled? I see what they did there. If Halo 5 was bundled with the cheapest XB1 bundles than it would probably be sitting on 7m by now. For some reason MS dont bundle there games as much as Sony do with theres. Horizon is another game i see bundled all the time. *IMPORTANT* When i say bundled there games i mean offering many types of bundles with the same game.

And dont tell me people buy bundles based off the games they like nonsense. I see customers buy the systems with the best value first and what is new to the market. I have plenty of friends who dont even care for the games that come with the consoles, aslong as its a good deal. Ironically i know a friend who brought a PS4 with DC included and told me he traded it for cash minutes after buying the PS4 just to give him an even better deal for his PS4. That DC game still counted as a Sale to Sony.

This is why comparing sales dont make sense in the modern era of gaming.

It all comes down to who bundles there game the most and who discounts there games better. In other words MS could simply bundle FM6 with every XB1 console and the game will sell  extremly well on the charts. Is it making MS money, no however who cares for buiness decisions and profits right? Aslong as it sells X amount it doesnt matter *Says the modern gamer*

Sure bundles can help the sales.

Yet on DC case at the time of launch PS4 had no official bundle with discounted price, so if 50% of the HW sold were DC bundles with DC at full price why discount its merit?

I never claimed DC was doing wonderful, I expressed surprise that it sold more than 2M and was considered a flop.

UC4 I believe had discounted bundles Horizon probably the same. But on UC case as far as I remember it were on the realms of the previous UC sales so nothing unexpected. Horizon done very well for a new IP.

And for both cases there were competing bundles of games that sell even more.

So your way to preventively close a possible comment I would do that people don't buy what they want but they would buy a bundle (even when others are available) to get a game they don't want just to sell it later, and base that of from anedoctes? You do know that the plural of anedocte isn't data right?

Forza is one of the most know bundled games of MS, most of them got plenty of bundles and that isn't an issue at all.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CosmicSex said:
I will put it like this: Yearly the Switch should sell more than Xbox going forward. Passing the Xbox will happen but this will happen because the Xbox only sells like 7 million a year.

The XB1 has sold somewhere between 1.6-1.7m for the first half of this year. The XB1X will boost sales, but the XB1 doesn't have the luxury of the XB1S launch that it had last year.



I'll say between the Switch will pass the XBones in 2 to 3 years.
#HotTake: the Switch deserves to be a bigger seller than xbox



Switch could potentially make it in 2 years, but that's gonna be a very tough mark to reach, especially if the parts problem persists. So I'll say 2 years for an optimistic outlook and 3 years for a more "normal" outlook, and 4 years if the parts problem keeps Nintendo from producing enough units to beat XBO in 3 years.