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Forums - Sales Discussion - Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

 

How long util Switch exceeds "X1 family" in sales.

2 years!!! Switch for the... 177 27.79%
 
3 years, strong sales. be... 202 31.71%
 
4 years. It's hard, but ... 134 21.04%
 
5 years, or more. X1 sale... 49 7.69%
 
Never. Ya can't beat &q... 75 11.77%
 
Total:637
eva01beserk on 19 September 2017
CGI-Quality said:
eva01beserk said:

It was a logical argument, but got debunked very quickly. 

DC sold over 2m  with an install base of around 20m

forza sold under 2m with an installbase close to 30m

games really stop selling after its first year, so it dosent matter how big the installbase is now on the ps4 if the game stoped selling a while ago.

Debunked? Nah.

Fooks said:

I'd like to point out the current situation of Xbox Biggest Franchises.

I think this is very relevant to the thread, seeing how the Xbox One in order to stop the Switch gap to grow it need System Sellers to increase the sales. As soon as possible.

Having discussed this previously with other users, i would like to extend my original point.

Xbox Big 3 is on a sales decline, as i will show right now:


HALO

Halo 1 (5.5m) < Halo 2 (8m) < Halo 3 (12m) > Halo 4 (9m) > Halo 5 (5m)

GEARS OF WAR

Gears of War (6.09) < Gears of War 2 (6.75) > Gears of War 3 (6.21) > Gears of War 4 (3.05)

FORZA MOTORSPORT

Forza (1.05) < Forza 2 (4.05) < Forza 3 (5.49) > Forza 4 (4.57) > Forza 5 (2.31) > Forza 6 (1.99)

 

For starters, DRIVECLUB had nothing to do with that. Then, as a means to rail in some of the "excitement", I told him what DRIVECLUB did was hardly an achievement, given the full userbases of both platforms (something the PS4 has had over the X1 in droves - and particularly at both launches - which is where he shifted the discussion). Plus, you don't know if/when either game has stopped selling, and it's bogus to claim that games stop selling after their first year. Many titles disprove this.

What we can deduce from our data - DRIVECLUB has always had a good deal more people to sell to, but it currently sits a mere .23m more than Forza 6. I fail to see what's so spectacular.

So are you now planning on bringing the 1 in 1000th game that is the exception to the rule?

Again, nobody has said its spectacular, just that DC is consider a faliure and forza is not while it sold a litle less. they should both be failures or succeses.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

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WebMasterFlex on 19 September 2017

Xbox fans it's time to accept another defeat.



eva01beserk on 19 September 2017
CGI-Quality said:
eva01beserk said:

So are you now planning on bringing the 1 in 1000th game that is the exception to the rule?

Again, nobody has said its spectacular, just that DC is consider a faliure and forza is not while it sold a litle less. they should both be failures or succeses.
  • You really think most games stop selling, totally, after their first year? I don't think it's that simple.
  • Who called DRIVECLUB a commercial failure?
  • The two games shouldn't have ever been compared, in that context, to begin with.

1) they dont completly stop selling, but over 90% of its sales occur during that first year. Only games tat get bundled permanetly show a diference.

2) in this thread, no one has, but you know very well it has been on this site. they put it togheter with the order, even though that also sold decently. Not just this site but many others. even you called unimpresive.

3) neither are switch and x1, but here we are.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

CosmicSex on 19 September 2017

I will put it like this: Yearly the Switch should sell more than Xbox going forward. Passing the Xbox will happen but this will happen because the Xbox only sells like 7 million a year.



WebMasterFlex on 19 September 2017
CosmicSex said:
I will put it like this: Yearly the Switch should sell more than Xbox going forward. Passing the Xbox will happen but this will happen because the Xbox only sells like 7 million a year.

Legit I would say...



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DonFerrari on 19 September 2017
CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:

Of course there is nothing numerically impressive... both were close to 2M sold. All the rest of your argument was the non-sense part.

Nonsense?

"So FM6 is under Driveclub holy moses"

It began with that. From the start, your aim was to put Forza down. Everything I said was logical and made mathematical sense, and in turn, put things into perspective. You're incapable of undoing that, and that's okay.

Nope, unless your mind reading skills can outdo even my thoughts and see things I didn't even thought, much less written.

My aim was to show I was impressed that Forza had sold so low, because I remembered it being close to 3-4M range, and I remembered DC to be close to 1M. But when checking both they were close.

You can check weekly sales of any SW here in VGC. I put to you that on the first 10 weeks DC sold 1M (half the total) and I doubt that after the first year it didn't sold close to 90% of its total, so almost all sales were done on a userbase that was smaller than what Forza 6 had at launch (in case forza 6 had bigger userbase and less sales than Forza 5).

Being "logical" doesn't make it right and you know it, because it's phallacy to try and relate current userbase of PS4 to sales of DC that launched 3 years ago. Also userbase itself have small impact

CGI-Quality said:
eva01beserk said:

1) they dont completly stop selling, but over 90% of its sales occur during that first year. Only games tat get bundled permanetly show a diference.

2) in this thread, no one has, but you know very well it has been on this site. they put it togheter with the order, even though that also sold decently. Not just this site but many others. even you called unimpresive.

3) neither are switch and x1, but here we are.


1) Yes, bundled games can (and usually do) show a substantial difference after their first year and over time, but most major titles continue to sell long after that time even without one. That may/may not have been the case for either game in question. 

2) Next, if the people who matter didn't call DRIVECLUB a commercial failure, then I don't see how that can be given any real weight. Forum goers can say what they want about absolute totals, that shouldn't be used in a practical discussion about numbers.

3) Asking when the Switch will outsell the Xbox "family" isn't a bad line for a topic. It shows an interest in its growth. It is also within much closer reach than, let's say, the PS4. But it isn't in the same ballpark as putting one game down for another (remember, I said context). 

1) check the numbers on VGC and see if that is the case... DC isn't even close to be an evergreen.

2) If the people who matter aren't publically discussing X1 vs Switch them I should we? It makes no sense. The discussion is people considered DC a failure and still consider Forza a success (also consider GT to be dying), yet DC sold more than Forza 6 (and that was a surprise no matter what you try to put)

3) No putting one game down for another, stop with your assuming people thoughts.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Pemalite on 19 September 2017
ThisGuyFooks said:

HALO

Halo 1 (5.5m) < Halo 2 (8m) < Halo 3 (12m) > Halo 4 (9m) > Halo 5 (5m)

Halo 3 managed like 14.5 million.
https://www.halowaypoint.com/en-us/games/halo-3


Probably should include titles like Halo: Reach in there as well.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

flashfire926 on 19 September 2017
eva01beserk said:
CGI-Quality said:

Nonsense?

"So FM6 is under Driveclub holy moses"

It began with that. From the start, your aim was to put Forza down. Everything I said was logical and made mathematical sense, and in turn, put things into perspective. You're incapable of undoing that, and that's okay.

It was a logical argument, but got debunked very quickly. 

DC sold over 2m  with an install base of around 20m

forza sold under 2m with an installbase close to 30m

games really stop selling after its first year, so it dosent matter how big the installbase is now on the ps4 if the game stoped selling a while ago.

Forza 6 came out in 2015........when the userbase  of about 17-18 million for xbox one......it's 30 million as of now.............do some fact checking before making statements like these. Something I would suggest to DonFerrari too.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

flashfire926 on 19 September 2017
DonFerrari said:
CGI-Quality said:

Nonsense?

"So FM6 is under Driveclub holy moses"

It began with that. From the start, your aim was to put Forza down. Everything I said was logical and made mathematical sense, and in turn, put things into perspective. You're incapable of undoing that, and that's okay.

Nope, unless your mind reading skills can outdo even my thoughts and see things I didn't even thought, much less written.

My aim was to show I was impressed that Forza had sold so low, because I remembered it being close to 3-4M range, and I remembered DC to be close to 1M. But when checking both they were close.

You can check weekly sales of any SW here in VGC. I put to you that on the first 10 weeks DC sold 1M (half the total) and I doubt that after the first year it didn't sold close to 90% of its total, so almost all sales were done on a userbase that was smaller than what Forza 6 had at launch (in case forza 6 had bigger userbase and less sales than Forza 5).

Being "logical" doesn't make it right and you know it, because it's phallacy to try and relate current userbase of PS4 to sales of DC that launched 3 years ago. Also userbase itself have small impact

CGI-Quality said:


1) Yes, bundled games can (and usually do) show a substantial difference after their first year and over time, but most major titles continue to sell long after that time even without one. That may/may not have been the case for either game in question. 

2) Next, if the people who matter didn't call DRIVECLUB a commercial failure, then I don't see how that can be given any real weight. Forum goers can say what they want about absolute totals, that shouldn't be used in a practical discussion about numbers.

3) Asking when the Switch will outsell the Xbox "family" isn't a bad line for a topic. It shows an interest in its growth. It is also within much closer reach than, let's say, the PS4. But it isn't in the same ballpark as putting one game down for another (remember, I said context). 

1) check the numbers on VGC and see if that is the case... DC isn't even close to be an evergreen.

2) If the people who matter aren't publically discussing X1 vs Switch them I should we? It makes no sense. The discussion is people considered DC a failure and still consider Forza a success (also consider GT to be dying), yet DC sold more than Forza 6 (and that was a surprise no matter what you try to put)

3) No putting one game down for another, stop with your assuming people thoughts.

Again, people deemed the game a "flop" because of the huge mess it was launch, not because of its sales, which were just fine. 

 

By your userbase logic, Forza 5 had phenomenal sales because the day it ended up doing 2m plus when the console had less than a 5m userbase.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

DonFerrari on 20 September 2017
flashfire926 said:
DonFerrari said:

Nope, unless your mind reading skills can outdo even my thoughts and see things I didn't even thought, much less written.

My aim was to show I was impressed that Forza had sold so low, because I remembered it being close to 3-4M range, and I remembered DC to be close to 1M. But when checking both they were close.

You can check weekly sales of any SW here in VGC. I put to you that on the first 10 weeks DC sold 1M (half the total) and I doubt that after the first year it didn't sold close to 90% of its total, so almost all sales were done on a userbase that was smaller than what Forza 6 had at launch (in case forza 6 had bigger userbase and less sales than Forza 5).

Being "logical" doesn't make it right and you know it, because it's phallacy to try and relate current userbase of PS4 to sales of DC that launched 3 years ago. Also userbase itself have small impact

1) check the numbers on VGC and see if that is the case... DC isn't even close to be an evergreen.

2) If the people who matter aren't publically discussing X1 vs Switch them I should we? It makes no sense. The discussion is people considered DC a failure and still consider Forza a success (also consider GT to be dying), yet DC sold more than Forza 6 (and that was a surprise no matter what you try to put)

3) No putting one game down for another, stop with your assuming people thoughts.

Again, people deemed the game a "flop" because of the huge mess it was launch, not because of its sales, which were just fine. 

 

By your userbase logic, Forza 5 had phenomenal sales because the day it ended up doing 2m plus when the console had less than a 5m userbase.

2M for a franchise that sold 5+M before isn't phenomenal, but being a release title it done good.

And all the time I'm putting that the size of the userbase was the least relevant portion so the userbase being under 5M wasn't the biggest obstacle, but sure considering 5M userbase for FM5 versus what FM6 had would make some impact (but in this case because 5M is really small userbase while 30 to 60M would make very irrelevant difference).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."