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Forums - Sales Discussion - Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

 

How long util Switch exceeds "X1 family" in sales.

2 years!!! Switch for the... 177 27.79%
 
3 years, strong sales. be... 202 31.71%
 
4 years. It's hard, but ... 134 21.04%
 
5 years, or more. X1 sale... 49 7.69%
 
Never. Ya can't beat &q... 75 11.77%
 
Total:637
CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:

So FM6 is under Driveclub holy moses.

Also considering the sum

Forza Motorsport 19,46M isn't much over GT5 (12M)+Prologe(5.4M) and with GT6(5.2M) we have GT outselling all Forza with only one generation of games, but is GT that is on danger and needs to change teams.

Also funny that DC have sold better than most Forza Horizon as well.

And even putting all FM and FH the battle against GT5P+GT5+GT6 is basically a tie.

Eh, it's a little less of an achievement, in my eyes, for DRIVECLUB to be ahead of Forza. PS4's userbase is a big help and the system lacks an abundance of its own racers.

At the time DC released the userbase wasn't that much different and considering the low attach ratio the difference in userbase is neglible. And sure few titles help. But a lot of people consider DC a flop, but the 2M+ sales isn't that bad and was able to outsell the best seller of the competitor.

ThisGuyFooks said:
DonFerrari said:

So FM6 is under Driveclub holy moses.

Also considering the sum

Forza Motorsport 19,46M isn't much over GT5 (12M)+Prologe(5.4M) and with GT6(5.2M) we have GT outselling all Forza with only one generation of games, but is GT that is on danger and needs to change teams.

Also funny that DC have sold better than most Forza Horizon as well.

And even putting all FM and FH the battle against GT5P+GT5+GT6 is basically a tie.

Considering there has been Four Forza games released on the Xbox One: (2) Forza Motorsport's and (2) Forza Horizon's, can we really consider Forza 7 a System Seller?

Basically, anyone who wanted to buy an Xbox One to play a Forza game had 4 chances to do it, and most likely they already bought one.

A Forza 7 Bundle is coming, but i wonder how effective will be as a System Seller.

I dont think the Xbox One will be taking an NPD this year, not with that Line Up.

With Nintendo releasing Mario Odyssey this holidays, the gap will be closing by the millions.

I wouldn't ever consider FM7 a system seller myself. And yes you are absolutelly right that it won't push much system (perhaps for the enhancements for X1X it will help it).

flashfire926 said:
DonFerrari said:

So FM6 is under Driveclub holy moses.

Also considering the sum

Forza Motorsport 19,46M isn't much over GT5 (12M)+Prologe(5.4M) and with GT6(5.2M) we have GT outselling all Forza with only one generation of games, but is GT that is on danger and needs to change teams.

Also funny that DC have sold better than most Forza Horizon as well.

And even putting all FM and FH the battle against GT5P+GT5+GT6 is basically a tie.

Forza horizon 2 (inclining the Xbox 360 version) and Forza Horizon 3 have both outsold driveclub.

Are we going to compare 2 versions of FH2 to DC on sales? DC is considered a flop and FH and FM runaway sucess and yet when looking at numbers on current state the difference isn't so expressive.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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ThisGuyFooks said:
flashfire926 said:

You aren't getting the full context of forza without including the horizon series. Forza horizon 3 has outsold the last four forza games before it (horizon 1,2 forza 5,6) and sits at 2.49 million, with about ~500k more sales for PC. Yes, it wasn't as big as it used to be, but the decline has stopped and the series is stable now. Even gears has a pc version, so those sales aren't as bad as they look either 

Why would i mix the Motorsport and Horizon franchises?

They are both independent, made by different people and aimed possibly at a different audience.

The only thing they share is the name, basically because they wanted to push the Horizon series at first. Ironically, it is the one that is more popular now than the other game.

Will MS change name and launch Forza Horizon: Motorsport 1 instead of Forza Motorsport 7?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
ThisGuyFooks said:

Why would i mix the Motorsport and Horizon franchises?

They are both independent, made by different people and aimed possibly at a different audience.

The only thing they share is the name, basically because they wanted to push the Horizon series at first. Ironically, it is the one that is more popular now than the other game.

Will MS change name and launch Forza Horizon: Motorsport 1 instead of Forza Motorsport 7?

LMAO!!!!



ThisGuyFooks said:
DonFerrari said:

Will MS change name and launch Forza Horizon: Motorsport 1 instead of Forza Motorsport 7?

LMAO!!!!

that would be a way for them to claim releasing a new IP this gen as well =p 



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
CGI-Quality said:

Eh, it's a little less of an achievement, in my eyes, for DRIVECLUB to be ahead of Forza. PS4's userbase is a big help and the system lacks an abundance of its own racers.

At the time DC released the userbase wasn't that much different and considering the low attach ratio the difference in userbase is neglible. And sure few titles help. But a lot of people consider DC a flop, but the 2M+ sales isn't that bad and was able to outsell the best seller of the competitor.

ThisGuyFooks said:

Considering there has been Four Forza games released on the Xbox One: (2) Forza Motorsport's and (2) Forza Horizon's, can we really consider Forza 7 a System Seller?

Basically, anyone who wanted to buy an Xbox One to play a Forza game had 4 chances to do it, and most likely they already bought one.

A Forza 7 Bundle is coming, but i wonder how effective will be as a System Seller.

I dont think the Xbox One will be taking an NPD this year, not with that Line Up.

With Nintendo releasing Mario Odyssey this holidays, the gap will be closing by the millions.

I wouldn't ever consider FM7 a system seller myself. And yes you are absolutelly right that it won't push much system (perhaps for the enhancements for X1X it will help it).

flashfire926 said:

Forza horizon 2 (inclining the Xbox 360 version) and Forza Horizon 3 have both outsold driveclub.

Are we going to compare 2 versions of FH2 to DC on sales? DC is considered a flop and FH and FM runaway sucess and yet when looking at numbers on current state the difference isn't so expressive.

DC isn't considered a flop because of its sales, it's because of the huge mess it was at launch.  Which is a big shame since since then Driveclub has become one of the best racers this gen. I'm 90% sure Sony said it sold well. In my eyes it's not a flop. Also selling 2m is a bigger feat on a 30 million console rather than a 60 million console.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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flashfire926 said:
DonFerrari said:

At the time DC released the userbase wasn't that much different and considering the low attach ratio the difference in userbase is neglible. And sure few titles help. But a lot of people consider DC a flop, but the 2M+ sales isn't that bad and was able to outsell the best seller of the competitor.

I wouldn't ever consider FM7 a system seller myself. And yes you are absolutelly right that it won't push much system (perhaps for the enhancements for X1X it will help it).

Are we going to compare 2 versions of FH2 to DC on sales? DC is considered a flop and FH and FM runaway sucess and yet when looking at numbers on current state the difference isn't so expressive.

DC isn't considered a flop because of its sales, it's because of the huge mess it was at launch.  Which is a big shame since since then Driveclub has become one of the best racers this gen. I'm 90% sure Sony said it sold well. In my eyes it's not a flop. Also selling 2m is a bigger feat on a 30 million console rather than a 60 million console.

In VGC DC was considered a flop in basically all aspects.

Sorry selling 2M on a stablished franchise (that sold over 5M) isn't a big feat, even more compared to a new IP that were bashed back and forth.

CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:

At the time DC released the userbase wasn't that much different and considering the low attach ratio the difference in userbase is neglible. And sure few titles help. But a lot of people consider DC a flop, but the 2M+ sales isn't that bad and was able to outsell the best seller of the competitor.

You said:

"So FM6 is under Driveclub holy moses."

"Also considering the sum"

"Also funny that DC have sold better than most Forza Horizon as well."

So what the userbase was at the time of the launches is irrelevant, but even if we consider that, according to our numbers, the PS4 had a 6m unit lead on the X1 when DRIVECLUB launched. When Forza 6 released, the difference had jumped to 12m units. So either way, DRIVECLUB had a userbase advantage by at least 6m. Nothing negligible about that.

I didn't said at the time because I wasn't talking about userbase, considering 2M sales on 30 or 60M userbase is irrelevant the size of the userbase, even more when FM5 sold more than FM6 having less userbase for it to sell.

Yes I was surprised that FM 6 sold less than DC at what numbers we have today.

Sum, consider the sales of ALL FM, versus only sales of GT on 7th gen. So if we are going to compare the way you want on userbase we would have 85M for PS3 versus almost 150M for X+X360+X1. So what is the point?

And yes, DC sold better than FH1 and 2, I didn't expect that. People here have considered FH a very good game and seller and DC a bad one.

CGI yes the userbase is irrelevant, that is my argument, I don't know what you are trying to deny.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:

I didn't said at the time because I wasn't talking about userbase, considering 2M sales on 30 or 60M userbase is irrelevant the size of the userbase, even more when FM5 sold more than FM6 having less userbase for it to sell.

Yes I was surprised that FM 6 sold less than DC at what numbers we have today.

Sum, consider the sales of ALL FM, versus only sales of GT on 7th gen. So if we are going to compare the way you want on userbase we would have 85M for PS3 versus almost 150M for X+X360+X1. So what is the point?

And yes, DC sold better than FH1 and 2, I didn't expect that. People here have considered FH a very good game and seller and DC a bad one.

CGI yes the userbase is irrelevant, that is my argument, I don't know what you are trying to deny.

Irrelevant at the time of the launches. That's key when talking about current lifetime sales. In time, DC has had a much larger group of people to sell to. Thus, there's no surprise that it is ahead of Forza 6. You tried to make it seem like there was a negligible difference. No matter when we're talking, the difference has been substantial, but the relevant numbers to look at would be today's, where the PS4 has a massive lead.

Edit: And when one really looks at it, Forza 6 deserves more credit, given it isn't that far behind DRIVECLUB (2.22m vs 1.99m) and the difference in users is so big. I just didn't get the cheering for DRIVECLUB when it should have sold better.

After release most would even expect it crossing 1M, let alone 2M. While Forza have previously sold 5+M

CGI you know that after the first month of sales there isn't much more for most IPs

DC sold 500k on 1st month, 1M by the 10th week at a time PS4 was at 15M or so. By your logic Forza 6 releasing on a 30M userbase should have sold much much more.

Halo 3 sold much more than Halo 4 even releasing at much smaller userbase at the time.

It isn't anywhere common for a game to have a resurgence of sales 3 years after it release. Also it's basically pointless to say that a game that sold 2M on a 30M userbase would have done much better on 60M, the correlation is very small.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:

After release most would even expect it crossing 1M, let alone 2M. While Forza have previously sold 5+M

CGI you know that after the first month of sales there isn't much more for most IPs

DC sold 500k on 1st month, 1M by the 10th week at a time PS4 was at 15M or so. By your logic Forza 6 releasing on a 30M userbase should have sold much much more.

Halo 3 sold much more than Halo 4 even releasing at much smaller userbase at the time.

It isn't anywhere common for a game to have a resurgence of sales 3 years after it release. Also it's basically pointless to say that a game that sold 2M on a 30M userbase would have done much better on 60M, the correlation is very small.

"By your logic" - Love that saying. If there is logic, then it is valid. Remember that. : )

Now to the rest of it -

 

  • Halo 3 vs Halo 4 is an apples-to-oranges comparison to DRIVECLUB vs Forza 6. 
  • You made a bottom line statement that it is somehow more impressive for DRIVECLUB to have sold more on the PS4 than Forza 6 on the Xbox One. Once all of the variables I mentioned come into play, I don't see too much that's noteworthy about it. A successful new IP? Perhaps. Hardly anything wrong on Forza 6's end, though.

Nope, there is something called "inside logic", on that "following this line of though, or in this universe ethos". But nope on broad terms the argument was illogical.

And nope DC wasn't a sucess. And that is what makes it impressive that it sold over 2M being not sucessfull, but several here still put Forza as sucessfull while losing to even DC.

Nope. You tried to put the size of the userbase as being very relevant. Yet Halo 3 on a much much smaller userbase than Halo 4 sold much more than it. Same with DC, when released the userbase of PS4 was smaller than the userbase of X1 on Forza 6 release and still outsold it. If the size of the userbase were the problem for Forza 6 sales then Forza 5 would have to sold much less than Forza 6 since it had a much smaller userbase when it released.

Once all the variables you mentioned but are not even supporting your argument if not by reaching and spin. Because for the nth time the size of the userbase didn't impacted the sales of DC or Forza 6 to any significant size.

DC, not sucessfull new IP. Forza 6, lukewarm sales and possible decline on series.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:

Nope, there is something called "inside logic", on that "following this line of though, or in this universe ethos". But nope on broad terms the argument was illogical.

And nope DC wasn't a sucess. And that is what makes it impressive that it sold over 2M being not sucessfull, but several here still put Forza as sucessfull while losing to even DC.

Nope. You tried to put the size of the userbase as being very relevant. Yet Halo 3 on a much much smaller userbase than Halo 4 sold much more than it. Same with DC, when released the userbase of PS4 was smaller than the userbase of X1 on Forza 6 release and still outsold it. If the size of the userbase were the problem for Forza 6 sales then Forza 5 would have to sold much less than Forza 6 since it had a much smaller userbase when it released.

Once all the variables you mentioned but are not even supporting your argument if not by reaching and spin. Because for the nth time the size of the userbase didn't impacted the sales of DC or Forza 6 to any significant size.

DC, not sucessfull new IP. Forza 6, lukewarm sales and possible decline on series.

Nothing illogical about my argument, you just don't have a crushing answer for it. Call it reaching. Call it spin (both things you specialize in). My bottom line is there isn't anything numerically impressive about DRIVECLUB outselling Forza 6.

Of course there is nothing numerically impressive... both were close to 2M sold. All the rest of your argument was the non-sense part.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

CGI-Quality said:
DonFerrari said:

Of course there is nothing numerically impressive... both were close to 2M sold. All the rest of your argument was the non-sense part.

Nonsense?

"So FM6 is under Driveclub holy moses"

It began with that. From the start, your aim was to put Forza down. Everything I said was logical and made mathematical sense, and in turn, put things into perspective. You're incapable of undoing that, and that's okay.

It was a logical argument, but got debunked very quickly. 

DC sold over 2m  with an install base of around 20m

forza sold under 2m with an installbase close to 30m

games really stop selling after its first year, so it dosent matter how big the installbase is now on the ps4 if the game stoped selling a while ago.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.