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Forums - Sales Discussion - Make your call: how long until Switch exceeds "X1family".

 

How long util Switch exceeds "X1 family" in sales.

2 years!!! Switch for the... 177 27.79%
 
3 years, strong sales. be... 202 31.71%
 
4 years. It's hard, but ... 134 21.04%
 
5 years, or more. X1 sale... 49 7.69%
 
Never. Ya can't beat &q... 75 11.77%
 
Total:637
Wyrdness on 18 September 2017

My guess is about 3 years when Pokemon arrives.



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Mr Puggsly on 18 September 2017
superchunk said:
XboxOne will likely remain for sell in some form until Switch is about 4 yrs old.

I would guess that at the current rate, Xbox One family will top out around 65MM.

I would guess that if Switch can remain popular, take over portable titles, become 100% solution for 1st party, and get continuous 3rd party support (this does not mean AAA parity), then it will top out around 80MM. Why only 80MM when revisions of the other consoles allowed them to sustain high yearly sales? Switch will be impacted more from the new gen hardware in MSony at the same time and I'm betting some of the AAA launch titles won't be on the latest version of Switch at that time. Thus Nintendo will need to put out its 3rd Switch revision (Switch 2) which would then count as a separate console family.

Where these cross would likely be in Switch's 5th year.

I think the big questions are how strong will X1 sales will be and will Switch lose momentum.

If X1 can maintain about 7-8 million sales a year, that should get them to 60+ million. That would take about 4 years.

If X1 could do that, that means Switch would need to do 15 million units a year for 4 years to surpass the X1.

So... its possible Switch won't do it until the 8th gen is actually over.



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River City: Rival Showdown for 3DS (3/5) - River City: Tokyo Rumble for 3DS (4/5) - Zelda: BotW for Wii U (5/5) - Zelda: BotW for Switch (5/5) - Zelda: Link's Awakening for Switch (4/5) - Rage 2 for X1X (4/5) - Rage for 360 (3/5) - Streets of Rage 4 for X1/PC (4/5) - Gears 5 for X1X (5/5) - Mortal Kombat 11 for X1X (5/5) - Doom 64 for N64 (emulator) (3/5) - Crackdown 3 for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

DonFerrari on 18 September 2017
superchunk said:
XboxOne will likely remain for sell in some form until Switch is about 4 yrs old.

I would guess that at the current rate, Xbox One family will top out around 65MM.

I would guess that if Switch can remain popular, take over portable titles, become 100% solution for 1st party, and get continuous 3rd party support (this does not mean AAA parity), then it will top out around 80MM. Why only 80MM when revisions of the other consoles allowed them to sustain high yearly sales? Switch will be impacted more from the new gen hardware in MSony at the same time and I'm betting some of the AAA launch titles won't be on the latest version of Switch at that time. Thus Nintendo will need to put out its 3rd Switch revision (Switch 2) which would then count as a separate console family.

Where these cross would likely be in Switch's 5th year.

Considering X1 is already on decline and haven't crossed 31M I find it very difficult that it will more than double in the next 4 years.



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superchunk on 18 September 2017
DonFerrari said:

Considering X1 is already on decline and haven't crossed 31M I find it very difficult that it will more than double in the next 4 years.

X1 has been at a steady ~8.5MM a year. How do you figure its on decline?



Wyrdness on 18 September 2017
superchunk said:
DonFerrari said:

Considering X1 is already on decline and haven't crossed 31M I find it very difficult that it will more than double in the next 4 years.

X1 has been at a steady ~8.5MM a year. How do you figure its on decline?

Pretty sure before this year it was selling at a rate that was more than the 60k a week average it's been doing right now.



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eva01beserk on 18 September 2017
DonFerrari said:
superchunk said:
XboxOne will likely remain for sell in some form until Switch is about 4 yrs old.

I would guess that at the current rate, Xbox One family will top out around 65MM.

I would guess that if Switch can remain popular, take over portable titles, become 100% solution for 1st party, and get continuous 3rd party support (this does not mean AAA parity), then it will top out around 80MM. Why only 80MM when revisions of the other consoles allowed them to sustain high yearly sales? Switch will be impacted more from the new gen hardware in MSony at the same time and I'm betting some of the AAA launch titles won't be on the latest version of Switch at that time. Thus Nintendo will need to put out its 3rd Switch revision (Switch 2) which would then count as a separate console family.

Where these cross would likely be in Switch's 5th year.

Considering X1 is already on decline and haven't crossed 31M I find it very difficult that it will more than double in the next 4 years.

Thats the real question here, how far the x1 family will go, then see how fast the switch will pass that.

Like you I belive its crazzy that some think it will keep selling the same or more than it did the last 4 years. I belive 50M is the highest it can go. COnsidering the lack of exclusivess coming to it. This will be its peak year and crosing 8m for it seems far fetch even with the X coming.

So next year with switch suply cranked up and x1 declining, I belive a good 3:1 ratio to start and with in 2020 the switch will surpass the x1 family. Probaby early 2020.



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Paul on 18 September 2017

2 years, the financial experts are predicting 130 million lifetime sales. Will follow a handheld sales curve.you can't argue with financial experts. 31 million in the peak year. Credit suisse report.



ThisGuyFooks on 18 September 2017
Paul said:
2 years, the financial experts are predicting 130 million lifetime sales. Will follow a handheld sales curve.you can't argue with financial experts. 31 million in the peak year. Credit suisse report.

Bold Prediction.



StarDoor on 18 September 2017
ThisGuyFooks said:
Paul said:
2 years, the financial experts are predicting 130 million lifetime sales. Will follow a handheld sales curve.you can't argue with financial experts. 31 million in the peak year. Credit suisse report.

Bold Prediction.

I thought it was a joke at first, but he's right:

http://www.investopedia.com/news/nintendo-raised-outperform-credit-suisse/?optly_redirect=integrated&lgl=vtas-noas



Paul on 18 September 2017

I can see every person in japan under 30 owning one by 2024.