Except PS4 Pro and Slim came out in 2016, so if anything sales will be down because the increase in sales of those systems was last year, esspecially the Uncharted bundle (at least for November and December). Here are some comments from NPD for 2016

September NPD - PS4 Slim releases with Uncharted 4. The system was the 3rd best selling SKU but was still outsold by the XBox One. 

November NPD - PS4 Pro launched. PS4 was the top selling system for the month though it should be noted the analyst pin the increase on the Slim model.

The effect of hardware releases was accounted for in the prior year and this year doesn't have a lot of strong titles. The loot box craze doesn't help. I said this somewhere (think this thread), but the improvement for Sony in the early half of the year was software. Horizon, Tekken and Crash being new titles that did well for the year. Sony is also projecting fewer hardware shipments and Q1 (annual Q2) saw a decline in shipments (meaning less stock in the store). This doesn't spell huge year-over-year increase to me.

One thing I will close on is this. Looking at the NPD data, one thing you can tell is this generation has been abysmal for bringing in customers. For the last 4 months of the year, Software (sans October) and hardware revenue was down, usually around 20-30 percent. Both Sony and Microsoft have heavily relied on new hardware, price cuts and bundles to sell units. This doesn't increase demand like, say, releasing a new game does (as it creates interest that wasn't there before). Sony and Microsoft seem more dependent on moving down the demand curve rather than shifting it. It's an easy fix, but not a great one.

Looking over your data, I think it might be ahead because of titles released in the beginning of this year (Horizon, Crash, Tekken, Injustice, Ghost Recon). Looking at the latter half of this year, there doesn't seem to be as much as a lot of games were pushed into 2018. Outside of the usual suspects (sports games, CoD, Assassins Creed), doesn't look like much will be there to really drive sales. There is also the Loot Box fiasco which could hurt sales of all of these titles. 

I mentioned in another thread the issue between the data and Sony's shipments. Q1 shipments were down and they are expecting YoY decline. This could result in a weaker Q4 since the decline in selling to customers would lag sold to retailers. So Q4 sales could be down Year-over-year 

I think you are looking at your data and trying to get it to fit your pre-determined conclusion. 

Y'know, just because someone reaches a different conclusion than you doesn't mean that they're trying to fit the data to their conclusion rather than basing their conclusion on an objective examination of the data. Just throwing that out there.

First, let's look at November and December of 2016. Both saw a decline in sales over 2015 despite the Pro being released and the Slim model. This comtinued with Jan and Feb also being down or flat. Sales didn't increase until March. Your claim is the PS4 Slim had a delayed effect and that people started buying it around March. But here is what was said about the November NPD

The PlayStation 4 was the top-selling hardware system in the month, driven by the PS4 Slim System 500GB Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End Bundle,” said Naji. “This SKU accounted for 30 percent of all hardware units sold.

So the PS4 Slim did have an effect on sales and PS4 Slim accounted for 30 percent of all hardware (this was also a strong month for the 3DS as Pokemon released). 

Saying "accounted for x% of sales" does not mean "caused a boost in sales." Looking at weekly average sales in each month, PS4 sales did experience a very modest uptick in September and October compared to where they were in the April-August period, so my prior assessment of it having no effect is a bit of an exaggeration. But the Slim certainly was not enough to keep sales from being down YoY for both months. Either PS4 sales were being depressed by some likely external factor, meaning they likely would have been even worse without the Slim and Pro (or just a simple $50 price cut), or they just didn't get the kind of immediate boost we'd expect from new hardware revisions/price cuts.

But March through August is up yes? What happened? Numerous big games released during this time period. Horizon, Crash, Tekken and Injustice all released in this time frame and these were all games that 1)Were not already available on the PS4 and 2)Were with in the top 10 during their release (and ayt least 3 stuck around for more than a month). So what is more likely to cause an increase in PS4 sale? Would it betwo SKU 4 months after they were released? Or would it be numerous big hit titles releasing around this time frame? Proximity would say its the latter, not the former.

Those games may have done well, at least relatively speaking, in their launch months (we don't have any exact numbers from NPD for most of them), but is there any evidence that they moved any appreciable amount of hardware? I don't really see much if any. Now, NPD does track sales on a monthly basis, not weekly, so the effects of shorter-term sales boosts are washed out in the data, requiring a game to push a lot of hardware to have a measurable effect for a whole month. That being said, Japanese sales are tracked weekly, and they reveal that most software, even many titles that do decently, don't move any appreciable amount of hardware, and even big titles do have a measurable impact on hardware sales do so short-term, usually only in the week they are released. While VGC data is less reliable, they suggest that even U.S. sales exhibit the same behavior in response to software, and FWIW they don't show any spikes associated with any of those 2017 games, though they do show spikes from games like Destiny, Batman: Arkham Knight, and Uncharted 4, games that can be claimed to have a visible effect on monthly sales. It seems like it takes a particular big, popular game selling a lot to boost hardware, and most weeks are simply baseline levels where any minor system-sellers have their effects lost in the statistical week-to-week noise.

So, with that being said, we could possibly argue that the combo of Horizon (probably the best-selling PS4 game of the year so far) and Ghost Recon was responsible for the 20.2% YoY increase seen in March. But April had no big releases and still saw the PS4 up 18% YoY from the previous April. May was down YoY because of Uncharted 4 being a definite system-seller last year, but May was also down from April despite the release of notable games Injustice 2 and Prey. June was up a whopping 62.2% YoY, and I somehow doubt that was due to Tekken 7 (a sequel to an fighting game series long past its prime) and the Crash Insane Trilogy (a remaster/compilation, which have never had any measurable system-selling power). But we did have that limited edition gold PS4, which did do well on the charts on Amazon. July was also bereft of any major releases, yet sales were still up a considerable 34.8%. And August was up 18.8% YoY despite the only notable release besides Madden (which never moves any appreciable amount hardware) being an Uncharted spinoff that failed to outsell the PS4 port of Madden 18.

So, I think that rules out for the most part your argument that software was the culprit for the observed YoY increases we've seen with the PS4. Maybe Horizon and (to a lesser extent) Ghost Recon moved some units, but Injustice 2, Tekken, Crash, and everything else released from April to August almost certainly did little to nothing to boost hardware.

Software sells hardware, not the other way around (were that true, PS3 wouldn't have been such a disaster with all tis features). People don't just buy a box and let it sit there. They need games for it, and new games means a new reason to buy a console. Tekken wasn't on the PS4 until 7 released. Now there is a new reason to buy. Horizon and Injustice weren't on the PS4. Now they were. There was a new model of PS4 for June, but if you look at the charts, you'll see a lot of big games throughout this period which can't be explained by hardware alone.

Nobody's saying software doesn't matter. However, sales data consistently shows that individual titles do not generate any significant long-term sales growth. Long-term sales growth is almost always due to price cuts and, in many cases, major hardware revisions.

What you are doing is saying "Hardware releases are the number one reason for increase in hardware sales." You then look at the data and make it fit that conclusion. The PS4 Slim and Pro released in Holiday 16, but you are saying sales didn't increase until 4 months later. DId people not know the systems existed? There is no reason to expect that a new hardware would not sell its best closet to its release, everything else kept equal. A better explination is that something else happened to increase sales. That something else would be hardware. Note the biggest spikes for 17 were closest to software. Horizon launched at the end of March and Crash and Tekken launched around June/July. This would explain the increases.

We know hardware revisions and price cuts tend to generate long-term sales boosts because that's what the data clearly shows. Last generation we saw this with the 360 & PS3:

Yeah, there were a few games that had a clear impact on sales, but not many. It was price cuts and slim models that had the biggest effect on sales (this was the case in Japan and Europe as well). And we see that in this and every other generation as well.

But this conclusion also means that hardware revisions alone do not increase sales (at least at a level high enough).

The PS3 Slim and 360 S show they did last gen, the XBO S definitely showed they still can, and the PS4 Slim and Pro seem to have done so as well, even if they took a while to get into gear.

The PS4 Pro and SLim didn't increase sales YoY from November to February. If those systems didn't result in a YoY increase in the season they were released, why should we expect there to be an increase in the season with (as far as I know) no new hardware. If anything, we would see sales decline YoY for 2017 (for the end of the year).

Last holiday, especially November, was rough all around, as I mentioned.

Sales can increase due to software.

Yes, and as I said it takes a pretty big game to have any measurable impact on hardware sales.

Pokemon gave the 3DS a better 2017 than 2016.

Pokemon was one such big game. Pokemon is a really big deal for owners of Nintendo handhelds, and they're consistent system-sellers. I wouldn't really put games like Injustice 2, Crash Insane Trilogy, and Tekken 7 on the same level of importance.

The increase in the PS4 in Mar-Aug is due to software boosting sales, but it may not continue into the Holiday season. Sony's shipments being down supports that conclusion.

I've been over this before with you. Shipments are not sales. They are usually not congruent with sales. Therefore, we shouldn't assume sales will be down later this year just because Sony projects reduced shipments.

I think you are looking at your data and trying to get it to fit your pre-determined conclusion. 

Y'know, just because someone reaches a different conclusion than you doesn't mean that they're trying to fit the data to their conclusion rather than basing their conclusion on an objective examination of the data. Just throwing that out there.

First, let's look at November and December of 2016. Both saw a decline in sales over 2015 despite the Pro being released and the Slim model. This comtinued with Jan and Feb also being down or flat. Sales didn't increase until March. Your claim is the PS4 Slim had a delayed effect and that people started buying it around March. But here is what was said about the November NPD

The PlayStation 4 was the top-selling hardware system in the month, driven by the PS4 Slim System 500GB Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End Bundle,” said Naji. “This SKU accounted for 30 percent of all hardware units sold.

So the PS4 Slim did have an effect on sales and PS4 Slim accounted for 30 percent of all hardware (this was also a strong month for the 3DS as Pokemon released). 

Saying "accounted for x% of sales" does not mean "caused a boost in sales." Looking at weekly average sales in each month, PS4 sales did experience a very modest uptick in September and October compared to where they were in the April-August period, so my prior assessment of it having no effect is a bit of an exaggeration. But the Slim certainly was not enough to keep sales from being down YoY for both months. Either PS4 sales were being depressed by some likely external factor, meaning they likely would have been even worse without the Slim and Pro (or just a simple $50 price cut), or they just didn't get the kind of immediate boost we'd expect from new hardware revisions/price cuts.

But March through August is up yes? What happened? Numerous big games released during this time period. Horizon, Crash, Tekken and Injustice all released in this time frame and these were all games that 1)Were not already available on the PS4 and 2)Were with in the top 10 during their release (and ayt least 3 stuck around for more than a month). So what is more likely to cause an increase in PS4 sale? Would it betwo SKU 4 months after they were released? Or would it be numerous big hit titles releasing around this time frame? Proximity would say its the latter, not the former.

Those games may have done well, at least relatively speaking, in their launch months (we don't have any exact numbers from NPD for most of them), but is there any evidence that they moved any appreciable amount of hardware? I don't really see much if any. Now, NPD does track sales on a monthly basis, not weekly, so the effects of shorter-term sales boosts are washed out in the data, requiring a game to push a lot of hardware to have a measurable effect for a whole month. That being said, Japanese sales are tracked weekly, and they reveal that most software, even many titles that do decently, don't move any appreciable amount of hardware, and even big titles do have a measurable impact on hardware sales do so short-term, usually only in the week they are released. While VGC data is less reliable, they suggest that even U.S. sales exhibit the same behavior in response to software, and FWIW they don't show any spikes associated with any of those 2017 games, though they do show spikes from games like Destiny, Batman: Arkham Knight, and Uncharted 4, games that can be claimed to have a visible effect on monthly sales. It seems like it takes a particular big, popular game selling a lot to boost hardware, and most weeks are simply baseline levels where any minor system-sellers have their effects lost in the statistical week-to-week noise.

So, with that being said, we could possibly argue that the combo of Horizon (probably the best-selling PS4 game of the year so far) and Ghost Recon was responsible for the 20.2% YoY increase seen in March. But April had no big releases and still saw the PS4 up 18% YoY from the previous April. May was down YoY because of Uncharted 4 being a definite system-seller last year, but May was also down from April despite the release of notable games Injustice 2 and Prey. June was up a whopping 62.2% YoY, and I somehow doubt that was due to Tekken 7 (a sequel to an fighting game series long past its prime) and the Crash Insane Trilogy (a remaster/compilation, which have never had any measurable system-selling power). But we did have that limited edition gold PS4, which did do well on the charts on Amazon. July was also bereft of any major releases, yet sales were still up a considerable 34.8%. And August was up 18.8% YoY despite the only notable release besides Madden (which never moves any appreciable amount hardware) being an Uncharted spinoff that failed to outsell the PS4 port of Madden 18.

So, I think that rules out for the most part your argument that software was the culprit for the observed YoY increases we've seen with the PS4. Maybe Horizon and (to a lesser extent) Ghost Recon moved some units, but Injustice 2, Tekken, Crash, and everything else released from April to August almost certainly did little to nothing to boost hardware.

Software sells hardware, not the other way around (were that true, PS3 wouldn't have been such a disaster with all tis features). People don't just buy a box and let it sit there. They need games for it, and new games means a new reason to buy a console. Tekken wasn't on the PS4 until 7 released. Now there is a new reason to buy. Horizon and Injustice weren't on the PS4. Now they were. There was a new model of PS4 for June, but if you look at the charts, you'll see a lot of big games throughout this period which can't be explained by hardware alone.

Nobody's saying software doesn't matter. However, sales data consistently shows that individual titles do not generate any significant long-term sales growth. Long-term sales growth is almost always due to price cuts and, in many cases, major hardware revisions.

What you are doing is saying "Hardware releases are the number one reason for increase in 

We know hardware revisions and price cuts tend to generate long-term sales boosts because that's what the data clearly shows. Last generation we saw this with the 360 & PS3:

Yeah, there were a few games that had a clear impact on sales, but not many. It was price cuts and slim models that had the biggest effect on sales (this was the case in Japan and Europe as well). And we see that in this and every other generation as well.

But this conclusion also means that hardware revisions alone do not increase sales (at least at a level high enough).

The PS3 Slim and 360 S show they did last gen, the XBO S definitely showed they still can, and the PS4 Slim and Pro seem to have done so as well, even if they took a while to get into gear.

The PS4 Pro and SLim didn't increase sales YoY from November to February. If those systems didn't result in a YoY increase in the season they were released, why should we expect there to be an increase in the season with (as far as I know) no new hardware. If anything, we would see sales decline YoY for 2017 (for the end of the year).

Last holiday, especially November, was rough all around, as I mentioned.

Sales can increase due to software.

Yes, and as I said it takes a pretty big game to have any measurable impact on hardware sales.

Pokemon gave the 3DS a better 2017 than 2016.

Pokemon was one such big game. Pokemon is a really big deal for owners of Nintendo handhelds, and they're consistent system-sellers. I wouldn't really put games like Injustice 2, Crash Insane Trilogy, and Tekken 7 on the same level of importance.

The increase in the PS4 in Mar-Aug is due to software boosting sales, but it may not continue into the Holiday season. Sony's shipments being down supports that conclusion.

I've been over this before with you. Shipments are not sales. They are usually not congruent with sales. Therefore, we shouldn't assume sales will be down later this year just because Sony projects reduced shipments.