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Forums - Sales Discussion - August 2017 NPD Thread ! Switch Won

hanspampel on 01 October 2017
Shadow1980 said:
hanspampel said:

I'm talking about the peak year so far and that was 2015 and not 2016
The poster said 2016 was supposed to be the peak year.
Yes, we don't know if 2017 will surpass 2015 or not.
It's a hard task as Ps4 needs to sell more than 3.5 million over the next 4 months.
And the competition is stronger with Xbox One X as a new console release and Switch  


So far, the PS4 is trending ahead of 2015 in cumulative YTD sales:

Granted, that lead is only about 195k, and while that may grow a bit more by the end of October, it can easily be wiped out during the holidays. For the Sept.-Dec. period, the PS4 needs to sell over 3540k to beat 2015. For comparison, 2738k were sold in the same period in 2014, 3736k were sold in 2015, and 3200k were sold in 2016. Assuming the PS4 can stay at least 10% ahead of 2016, we could see 2017 at least match 2015 or come close to it. Slim bundles for $199 and Pro bundles for $349 during the holidays ought to do the trick. The PS4 ought to be up a good bit YoY for the year as a whole, and I don't think 2015's position as peak year in the U.S. is unassailable, that is unless we have a disappointing November again.

Yeah i know and thanks for the great charts
I just don't think September - December will match 2015
I have the total for that period at 3750k by the way

I think Ps4 has to much competion this year, to sell over 3.5m the last 4 months of 2017
Some will pick up a Xbox One X over the Ps4 Pro and some will pick up a Switch over a Ps4 Slim



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Noobie on 03 October 2017

Thank you for some great charts



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VideoGameAccountant on 15 October 2017
Shadow1980 said:
hanspampel said:

I'm talking about the peak year so far and that was 2015 and not 2016
The poster said 2016 was supposed to be the peak year.
Yes, we don't know if 2017 will surpass 2015 or not.
It's a hard task as Ps4 needs to sell more than 3.5 million over the next 4 months.
And the competition is stronger with Xbox One X as a new console release and Switch  


So far, the PS4 is trending ahead of 2015 in cumulative YTD sales:

Granted, that lead is only about 195k, and while that may grow a bit more by the end of October, it can easily be wiped out during the holidays. For the Sept.-Dec. period, the PS4 needs to sell over 3540k to beat 2015. For comparison, 2738k were sold in the same period in 2014, 3736k were sold in 2015, and 3200k were sold in 2016. Assuming the PS4 can stay at least 10% ahead of 2016, we could see 2017 at least match 2015 or come close to it. Slim bundles for $199 and Pro bundles for $349 during the holidays ought to do the trick. The PS4 ought to be up a good bit YoY for the year as a whole, and I don't think 2015's position as peak year in the U.S. is unassailable, that is unless we have a disappointing November again.

Looking over your data, I think it might be ahead because of titles released in the beginning of this year (Horizon, Crash, Tekken, Injustice, Ghost Recon). Looking at the latter half of this year, there doesn't seem to be as much as a lot of games were pushed into 2018. Outside of the usual suspects (sports games, CoD, Assassins Creed), doesn't look like much will be there to really drive sales. There is also the Loot Box fiasco which could hurt sales of all of these titles. 

I mentioned in another thread the issue between the data and Sony's shipments. Q1 shipments were down and they are expecting YoY decline. This could result in a weaker Q4 since the decline in selling to customers would lag sold to retailers. So Q4 sales could be down Year-over-year 



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LipeJJ on 15 October 2017

I did not expect that.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

AngryLittleAlchemist on 15 October 2017

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PLAYSTATION DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMEDDD

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... i'm .. i'm sorry



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TheBlackNaruto on 16 October 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:
Shadow1980 said:


So far, the PS4 is trending ahead of 2015 in cumulative YTD sales:

Granted, that lead is only about 195k, and while that may grow a bit more by the end of October, it can easily be wiped out during the holidays. For the Sept.-Dec. period, the PS4 needs to sell over 3540k to beat 2015. For comparison, 2738k were sold in the same period in 2014, 3736k were sold in 2015, and 3200k were sold in 2016. Assuming the PS4 can stay at least 10% ahead of 2016, we could see 2017 at least match 2015 or come close to it. Slim bundles for $199 and Pro bundles for $349 during the holidays ought to do the trick. The PS4 ought to be up a good bit YoY for the year as a whole, and I don't think 2015's position as peak year in the U.S. is unassailable, that is unless we have a disappointing November again.

Looking over your data, I think it might be ahead because of titles released in the beginning of this year (Horizon, Crash, Tekken, Injustice, Ghost Recon). Looking at the latter half of this year, there doesn't seem to be as much as a lot of games were pushed into 2018. Outside of the usual suspects (sports games, CoD, Assassins Creed), doesn't look like much will be there to really drive sales. There is also the Loot Box fiasco which could hurt sales of all of these titles. 

I mentioned in another thread the issue between the data and Sony's shipments. Q1 shipments were down and they are expecting YoY decline. This could result in a weaker Q4 since the decline in selling to customers would lag sold to retailers. So Q4 sales could be down Year-over-year 

But hasn't this been the case every year? The usual suspects to push the end of the year? And the 2nd half of the year i s usually always stronger than the first....plus GT Sport....can't count that one out. So I am not so sure they will be down YoY I still feel this will be the peak year. Some good holiday bundles can be made and that should give them the sales they need.



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VideoGameAccountant on 16 October 2017
TheBlackNaruto said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Looking over your data, I think it might be ahead because of titles released in the beginning of this year (Horizon, Crash, Tekken, Injustice, Ghost Recon). Looking at the latter half of this year, there doesn't seem to be as much as a lot of games were pushed into 2018. Outside of the usual suspects (sports games, CoD, Assassins Creed), doesn't look like much will be there to really drive sales. There is also the Loot Box fiasco which could hurt sales of all of these titles. 

I mentioned in another thread the issue between the data and Sony's shipments. Q1 shipments were down and they are expecting YoY decline. This could result in a weaker Q4 since the decline in selling to customers would lag sold to retailers. So Q4 sales could be down Year-over-year 

But hasn't this been the case every year? The usual suspects to push the end of the year? And the 2nd half of the year i s usually always stronger than the first....plus GT Sport....can't count that one out. So I am not so sure they will be down YoY I still feel this will be the peak year. Some good holiday bundles can be made and that should give them the sales they need.

Looking at Sony's line-up, there doesn't seem to be a major software seller at the end of 2017. I guess I should clarify the "usual suspects." What I mean is that these titles are all sequels, so if you weren't interested in Battlefield, CoD or Assassins Creed before, why would you buy a PS4 now. It would be like saying that Halo 6 is going to be a massive system seller. If you weren't interested in Halo before, it's unlikely you would be now (though Assassin's Creed may be different as these games are usually in different settings giving them a unique feel). 

System sell by their games. Sony has a pretty good first half. Horizon, Crash, and Persona and Tekken were all games you couldn't get on the PS4 already (could maybe add Wildlands in there, but I'm not fimiliar with the series). At the end of the year, its all games that exist on the platform in some form. I don't think it will bring in new customers. 

One thing we should also consider is the PS4 Pro. Unlike the Slim models before it, the Pro does give PS4 owners a reason to upgrade. Although there aren't a massive amount of these being sold (I think its 1:5 or 1:4), it does inflate sales. It's money in Sony's pocket, sure, but it may mean that the sales would be higher when compared to prior generations or even prior years. Basically, PS4 sold would not be the same as the number of new customers. It could mean sales for Holiday 2017 would improve YoY.



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Lawlight on 16 October 2017
SpokenTruth said:
Lawlight said:

No, I don't think so. We would have noticed if it was heavily bundled. There were limited time ones though.

You haven't noticed it was heavily bundled?  Are you for real?  You can still buy them brand new in Europe.  It was only recently removed the playstation.com store.

While each bundle may have been limited, it had several of them across several consoles.

Can you tell me where in Europe they're still available? Because I cannot find it on Amazon UK, Game UK or Amazon FR.

As for the bundle only recently having been removed from playstation.com store, you're incorrect - the wayback machine shows that that site hasn't had the GTAV bundle for the past 2 years (I checked only for the past 2 years).



TheBlackNaruto on 17 October 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

But hasn't this been the case every year? The usual suspects to push the end of the year? And the 2nd half of the year i s usually always stronger than the first....plus GT Sport....can't count that one out. So I am not so sure they will be down YoY I still feel this will be the peak year. Some good holiday bundles can be made and that should give them the sales they need.

Looking at Sony's line-up, there doesn't seem to be a major software seller at the end of 2017. I guess I should clarify the "usual suspects." What I mean is that these titles are all sequels, so if you weren't interested in Battlefield, CoD or Assassins Creed before, why would you buy a PS4 now. It would be like saying that Halo 6 is going to be a massive system seller. If you weren't interested in Halo before, it's unlikely you would be now (though Assassin's Creed may be different as these games are usually in different settings giving them a unique feel). 

System sell by their games. Sony has a pretty good first half. Horizon, Crash, and Persona and Tekken were all games you couldn't get on the PS4 already (could maybe add Wildlands in there, but I'm not fimiliar with the series). At the end of the year, its all games that exist on the platform in some form. I don't think it will bring in new customers. 

One thing we should also consider is the PS4 Pro. Unlike the Slim models before it, the Pro does give PS4 owners a reason to upgrade. Although there aren't a massive amount of these being sold (I think its 1:5 or 1:4), it does inflate sales. It's money in Sony's pocket, sure, but it may mean that the sales would be higher when compared to prior generations or even prior years. Basically, PS4 sold would not be the same as the number of new customers. It could mean sales for Holiday 2017 would improve YoY.

No I know what you meant about the software line-up. And I was just stating that isn't that the same as last year? Or even the year before? They didn't have a "major" exclusive game coming out at the end of the year. Just the usual suspects as you stated. And the 2nd half was still stronger even then. So me looking at it I think it will be the same for this year. The Major 3rd party bundles and this year they also have GT Sport which should push some consoles. Couple that with some good Holiday bundles and they should have at least a flat 2nd half of the year at worse. 



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VideoGameAccountant on 22 October 2017
Shadow1980 said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Looking over your data, I think it might be ahead because of titles released in the beginning of this year (Horizon, Crash, Tekken, Injustice, Ghost Recon). Looking at the latter half of this year, there doesn't seem to be as much as a lot of games were pushed into 2018. Outside of the usual suspects (sports games, CoD, Assassins Creed), doesn't look like much will be there to really drive sales. There is also the Loot Box fiasco which could hurt sales of all of these titles. 

I mentioned in another thread the issue between the data and Sony's shipments. Q1 shipments were down and they are expecting YoY decline. This could result in a weaker Q4 since the decline in selling to customers would lag sold to retailers. So Q4 sales could be down Year-over-year 

Last year had Uncharted 4, The Division, Overwatch, Ratchet & Clank, Doom, and Dark Souls 3 in the first half of the year, so in terms of software, I wouldn't put this year too far ahead of last year. But what last year didn't have was the PS4 Slim and Pro. One can never underestimate the effects of price cuts and major hardware revisions, which typically have far greater stimulative effects than any individual game.

Except PS4 Pro and Slim came out in 2016, so if anything sales will be down because the increase in sales of those systems was last year, esspecially the Uncharted bundle (at least for November and December). Here are some comments from NPD for 2016

September NPD - PS4 Slim releases with Uncharted 4. The system was the 3rd best selling SKU but was still outsold by the XBox One. 

November NPD - PS4 Pro launched. PS4 was the top selling system for the month though it should be noted the analyst pin the increase on the Slim model.

The effect of hardware releases was accounted for in the prior year and this year doesn't have a lot of strong titles. The loot box craze doesn't help. I said this somewhere (think this thread), but the improvement for Sony in the early half of the year was software. Horizon, Tekken and Crash being new titles that did well for the year. Sony is also projecting fewer hardware shipments and Q1 (annual Q2) saw a decline in shipments (meaning less stock in the store). This doesn't spell huge year-over-year increase to me.

One thing I will close on is this. Looking at the NPD data, one thing you can tell is this generation has been abysmal for bringing in customers. For the last 4 months of the year, Software (sans October) and hardware revenue was down, usually around 20-30 percent. Both Sony and Microsoft have heavily relied on new hardware, price cuts and bundles to sell units. This doesn't increase demand like, say, releasing a new game does (as it creates interest that wasn't there before). Sony and Microsoft seem more dependent on moving down the demand curve rather than shifting it. It's an easy fix, but not a great one.



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