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Xbox One demand will surpass supply (Poll included)

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How much of an impact will these factors have on demand?

None at all 214 50.23%
 
A minimal impact 156 36.62%
 
A significant impact 33 7.75%
 
A major impact 23 5.40%
 
Total:426

Just like the Xbone S, X will be very competitive against PS4 for some time in the US, winning many NPDs, but then ultimately lose momentum. I predict by summer 2018 things will return to normal in the US: a God of War here, a price cut there, PS4 back on top. Worldwide, nothing will change.

Also people expecting PUBG to be a system seller are gonna be disappointed.



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I see the X1X helping overall very little, but selling to the most hardcore Xbox fans who already own an X1 (who probably already bought X1 w/Kinect at $500 on launch, and then X1S lol).

PUBG is .. probably not a big factor to be honest. The sooner they release it, the better chance of any impact. If it was already out on Xbox it would get some traction. But it's about to be the usual fall rush of mega IPs, already starting with Destiny 2, and the PUBG community is already really well entrenched on PC, where a game like PUBG can thrive decently. It should be a $20-$30 game. There is very little content, it's super janky, it looks like a 2008-era game in almost every aspect other than player count, and that's being VERY generous. I mean, it's a pretty hideous game to look at. There's also the matter of the thing even running on consoles in a respectable way. It's telling we still don't really have console footage to go on, it's notable for being pretty CPU heavy, and runs like trash even on pretty pricey PCs with good CPUs. With low level CPUs it's just an abomination.

https://www.tweaktown.com/articles/8189/playerunknowns-battlegrounds-benchmarked-cpu-gpu-war/index.html

If it comes out rushed at 30fps with drops on X1X, and is virtually unplayable on stock X1/X1S, that will pretty much seal the game on console. It certainly won't run any better on PS4/PS4P.



Thing with PUBG is that by the time it's out many companies will have realized that their games can effectively work as "PUBG clone" already, meaning that when it comes out it just look like a generic version of a multiplayer mode you can already play elsewhere.
I don't think it will do badly, but the reasons for its success seem uniquely tied to the PC gaming landscape.

As per XBox... it'll probably continue to have mediocre sales everywhere, maybe rising to "not awful" in the US.
As I've said, the aggressive marketing push for the X has sunk sales for the S.



Pubg is still in beta.
It's 20$
It's on a platform with an install base to rival the best console.
It is a very complicated game in terms of control. There are 14 or 15 different inputs.
It isn't nearly casual enough for console.
You're talking about looting for 15+ minutes with no action just to die from a split second shot.
There is virtually no chat.
Lag is an extremely significant factor

Compare this to what shooters are actually popular on consoles.



Just wanted to add that I have like 200 hours in pubg. I love that game. But it would need to be very different to survive the console environment.

Setup needs to be way shorter.
Death less penalized.
Less mechanics, streamlined, simplified.

The problem is mainly that there is so much setup that goes into the game...waiting for match, spot to land, getting items, fighting early etc...and so much camping (since death basically voids your investment), that given the amount of time invested to play, it comes down very precise control and reaction speed.
This is something a console cannot provide without a mouse and keyboard.



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Azzanation said:

With 4k booming i wont be suprised it does better than i am expecting. Gamers forget PS2 and PS3 came out the gates very expensive. Price isnt the issue with the X. In fact its priced quite well. Considering last gen we would pay similar for a slim model version with no benefits to the hardware at all. The industry will look at the X as the lastest Slim machine and over time as the price reduces it will sell even better due to its value.

Nah the original Xbox and ps2 both launched at $299 in North America. Ps2 dropped to $199 in May 2002. Xbox followed close behind with a price cut too I believe. Nothing close to the $499-$599 "second job" ps3 lol 

 



Azzanation said:

With 4k booming i wont be suprised it does better than i am expecting. Gamers forget PS2 and PS3 came out the gates very expensive. Price isnt the issue with the X. In fact its priced quite well. Considering last gen we would pay similar for a slim model version with no benefits to the hardware at all. The industry will look at the X as the lastest Slim machine and over time as the price reduces it will sell even better due to its value.

Who forgets that PS3 launched at a very high price? It's mentioned all the time. And it's always noted that the price was a big mistake, and the major reason for why Xbox 360 managed to get such big portion of the market.
PS2 launched at $299.



VGPolyglot said:
derpysquirtle64 said:
I don't see Xbox One taking the lead in US by the end of the year. By the end of the next year if everything goes great maybe.

I don't think they'll ever really regain the lead, the longer they are behind the harder it gets.

Maybe. But it seems that the marketing in US will be huge this holiday season, so everything is real in this region. Worldwide? That's not even the question. Even 360 lost to PS3 everywhere except the US.



 

derpysquirtle64 said:
VGPolyglot said:

I don't think they'll ever really regain the lead, the longer they are behind the harder it gets.

Maybe. But it seems that the marketing in US will be huge this holiday season, so everything is real in this region. Worldwide? That's not even the question. Even 360 lost to PS3 everywhere except the US.

How will they be able to market in a way that gets them the upper hand?



derpysquirtle64 said:
VGPolyglot said:

I don't think they'll ever really regain the lead, the longer they are behind the harder it gets.

Maybe. But it seems that the marketing in US will be huge this holiday season, so everything is real in this region. Worldwide? That's not even the question. Even 360 lost to PS3 everywhere except the US.

Do you realize that for BF a Xbox one S will probably be at $199 and with the difference between the S and the X ($300) you can probably buy like 10 decent games?