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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Anyone still seriously saying the Switch is going to fail?

StarDoor said:
friendlyfamine said:

With how much months of data? The 3DS had steadily maintained high sales 4 years (52 mil). There's no proof that the Switch will achieve that same feat. You can't be certain that the Switch will outsell the 3DS, otherwise, that is a delusion. Right now, the Switch is obviously doing well in its early months. But there is no evidence that will be maintained. Right now, the only killer future app is Pokemon, and we don't even know if that's 2018. 

There's a difference between being certain that the Switch will outsell the 3DS, and merely recognizing that the factors that influence the success of a console are stronger for the Switch than the were for the 3DS. But since you brought it up, which games were "killer apps" for the 3DS?

Read again. I said a lot of the 3DS' eventual success derived off affordability, which meant games weren't as big a factor. The Switch doesn't have that advantage. Therefore, games are more important for the Switch. But the only system seller I'm foreseeing is Pokemon. Fire Emblem, Kirby, Yoshi...they don't really sell systems. 



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Well... the Switch itself looks to be sucessful so far. But, what is it? For a home console it's doing well. For a portable it's doing expectadly. But what does it mean to the Nintendo overall market?

If Nintendo comes out with another portable then it's safe to say that the switch is a sucess over the Wii U. But if this is all that Nintendo is releasing, it may represent a continued drop in size of the Nintendo market (home console + portable).
If the switch is the only system, it will have to be compared to WiiU+3DS to measure how sucessful it really is for Nintendo.



friendlyfamine said:
StarDoor said:

There's a difference between being certain that the Switch will outsell the 3DS, and merely recognizing that the factors that influence the success of a console are stronger for the Switch than the were for the 3DS. But since you brought it up, which games were "killer apps" for the 3DS?

Read again. I said a lot of the 3DS' eventual success derived off affordability, which meant games weren't as big a factor. The Switch doesn't have that advantage. Therefore, games are more important for the Switch. But the only system seller I'm foreseeing is Pokemon. Fire Emblem, Kirby, Yoshi...they don't really sell systems. 

This is what I don't understand about this argument ... people make it all the time. Yet if you look at the 3DS, the only system seller for it was Pokemon, Zelda  remasters, Mario games ... and Monster Hunter in a very limited market? People say that the fault of the Switch is it's limited system sellers going into 2018 ... but the big system sellers of the 3ds were not enough to make up the huge 65 million install base it has, and beyond that the 3ds has had multiple years where it's biggest title was just one big nintendo game and not much else that was considered a "traditional" system seller, so obviously smaller more niche titles still sell Nintendo systems. In fact, most of the traditional system sellers the 3ds had were released between 2011 and 2013 (First Pokemon, two mario titles, a zelda remaster, a new zelda game, a mario kart game, an animal crossing etc) yet the 3ds has done exceptionally well every year after 2013. I honestly think Fire Emblem is becoming a big system seller at this point. If the 3ds proves anything, it's that a lot of unexpected hits can sell units as well. The Switch already has a lot of it's game library covered in the first year : A Zelda game, a Mario Kart game, a Splatoon game, a new IP, a Mario game, a Xenoblade game, a Musuo Crossover game. At this point if Nintendo just released two big titles in 2018, it still would sell well and they could still make a return in 2019. Obviously as a gamer I hope that they have more than 1 big system seller, but I don't see a limited amount of super popular games killing the system in 2018.



friendlyfamine said:
StarDoor said:

There's a difference between being certain that the Switch will outsell the 3DS, and merely recognizing that the factors that influence the success of a console are stronger for the Switch than the were for the 3DS. But since you brought it up, which games were "killer apps" for the 3DS?

Read again. I said a lot of the 3DS' eventual success derived off affordability, which meant games weren't as big a factor. The Switch doesn't have that advantage. Therefore, games are more important for the Switch. But the only system seller I'm foreseeing is Pokemon. Fire Emblem, Kirby, Yoshi...they don't really sell systems. 

Okay... so you live in a world where people buy consoles because they're cheap, and not because they have games.

If anything, your logic predicts that the Switch will be massively more successful than the 3DS, because it's already selling better while being much more expensive. So once they cut the price in a few years, this "affordability" bonus will kick in and then the Switch can ride out another 70 million sales on top of whatever they sold in 2017/2018, which looks to be around 25+ million.



GhaudePhaede010 said:
I honestly believe if Switch does not manage to sell over 80 million that it did not reach its true potential. This console, on its own merits, should be worthy of a very healthy market share. It will get revisions and price drops and a lot more software. There is no reason it should not outsell 3DS.

Agreed, Switch is a much better product than the 3DS (as demonstrated by it selling better at $300 than 3DS did at $170) and Nintendo would have to royally fuck up for Switch to sell less than 3DS lifetime. Switch either has or can have pretty much every advantage 3DS had (Pokemon, hardware revisions, price cuts, etc) while adding additional ones like a central "gimmick" that's actually appealing.



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Nem said:
Well... the Switch itself looks to be sucessful so far. But, what is it? For a home console it's doing well. For a portable it's doing expectadly. But what does it mean to the Nintendo overall market?

If Nintendo comes out with another portable then it's safe to say that the switch is a sucess over the Wii U. But if this is all that Nintendo is releasing, it may represent a continued drop in size of the Nintendo market (home console + portable).
If the switch is the only system, it will have to be compared to WiiU+3DS to measure how sucessful it really is for Nintendo.

I think Nintendo's play here will be to effectively throw out the generational model and basically sell different generations of Switch side by side, but keeping the ecosystem more or less unifed between devices.

This effectively can give them something close to the old "two hardware line" setup of the past, but without forcing a huge split in developer resources because they could still likely just scale (at least their 1st/2nd party games) up and down to work on both Switch lines. 

So I think 3DS/2DS will be phased out entirely in a couple of years, and then the current Switch, the one that is now $300, will in some redesigned form become a budget model, and Nintendo will introduce a newer, higher end Switch to re-occupy the $300 price point (w/XB1 tier graphics) and these two will co-exist and share games. As times goes on there may be more specific games for the higher end model. 

I think Nintendo purposely chose a non-modified Tegra X1 for this exact reason, so they can easily adopt new Tegra chips when Nvidia releases them. If Nintendo had done what they usually do which is insist on a custom design, there would be problems in having an "upgraded" Switch later, because Nvidia would have to make a custom design from scratch for them to keep compatbility with the old Switch. 

Just my hunch, we'll see how it plays out though. 



StarDoor said:
friendlyfamine said:

Read again. I said a lot of the 3DS' eventual success derived off affordability, which meant games weren't as big a factor. The Switch doesn't have that advantage. Therefore, games are more important for the Switch. But the only system seller I'm foreseeing is Pokemon. Fire Emblem, Kirby, Yoshi...they don't really sell systems. 

Okay... so you live in a world where people buy consoles because they're cheap, and not because they have games.

If anything, your logic predicts that the Switch will be massively more successful than the 3DS, because it's already selling better while being much more expensive. So once they cut the price in a few years, this "affordability" bonus will kick in and then the Switch can ride out another 70 million sales on top of whatever they sold in 2017/2018, which looks to be around 25+ million

I never said games were not important for the 3DS. I said they were a less important factor in purchasing the system compared to the Switch. With the 3DS being a much lower price, you're more likely to purchase it based on one or two games alone, compared to the Switch, the general consumer is less likely to pay $300 just to play one or two games. This is particularly relatable with the fact that a major part of the install-base for Nintendo handhelds are children. The 3DS' library, for its price, sufficed. There was Mario Kart, 3D Land, Star Fox 3D, OoT, and a hell lot of third party games and ports. At least for $170, that was enough for people to buy the system, hence it selling around 15 million after its price drop in its first year of it. With the Switch, it's going to need to a wider variety of games in order to sell as much as the 3DS after its price drop to incentivize the reasoning as to purchasing the $300 system, which ideally should offer more worth.

Right now, that seems to be happening (and foreseeable with the prospect of a 3DS successor not happening), as there was BOTW, MK8D, Splatoon, ARMS, and upcoming Odyssey, Xenoblade, Rabbids, Warriors, and some ports. The point is, the game library matters more for the Switch than the 3DS. This is reinforced by the fact that Switch has tougher competition with the similarly priced PS4 with a defined game library. That's all I was saying in my original comment, I don't know why it took so many replies to justify this.

Also, you're skipping ahead and making assumptions; generalizing and rationalizing the data we have currently. Right now with this limited data, these abstract comparisons are just arduous fallacies (i.e 10m+ Switch sales in 2018). 5 months of sales data don't ultimately mean the next 2 years will be the same (especially since BOTW and MK8D were good boost for the first few months). Anything can happen, and I can have doubts in Nintendo not messing something up in the process. The Switch is doing really well for now, and I want that to continue. But I'm keeping an open eye.



Ali_16x said:
meOwMiXmUnCHiEZz said:
the switch is going to outsell the ps4, so unless the ps4 fails the switch definitely will not fail.

lmao, now that's just delusion, even more so than what the OP is talking about (Not calling the OP delusional, just people that think the Switch will fail, though it depends on what you think is a failure, it will 100% sell more than the Wii U but I'm not sure it'll outsell the 3DS)

There is no way in hell that the Swtich will outsell the PS4, I doubt it'll outsell the PS3.

To be fair we still dont know true potential of Switch because it's still heavily supply constrained and continue to selling great despite that. I dont say it outsell PS4, it will be very hard because PS4 will be second best selling gaming hardware ever after PS2 and DS, but chance always exist. I dont think anybody would be surprised if Switch at end outsold PS3.

 

friendlyfamine said:

Switch outselling PS4 is a delusion. 3DS sales have demonstrated that Pokemon clearly isn't enough when the competition has the likes of GTA, FIFA and COD which counter it. Also, I digress that conceptually, the Switch being a handheld ultimately grants success as it is in the bloodline of those. A lot of the success of the Game Boy, DS and eventually the 3DS came from their affordability. The Switch isn't benefiting from that factor, so we'll have to see how it holds on its own.

-Switch is currently selling better than 3DS in same time period despite fact that costs $300 and that games are $60.

-Switch in same time is aiming home console owners not just handheld owners like GB, DS and 3DS.

-Switch has Splatoon, new 3D Zelda and it will have other home console games, games that  GB, DS and 3DS didnt had, while in same time Switch will have handheld IPs (Pokemon, Animal Crossing...).

-Wii didn't had GTA, but it did had Fifa and CoD, Fifa is coming on Switch, and eventually CoD will also come same like some other 3rd party games buy time.

-Switch will have multiple revisions, buy time it will have much more affordable price point, especially when most likely Nintendo release Switch Mini/Pocket just for handheld play.

 

I dont say that Switch will outsell PS4 but with Switch people need to stay open mined, we still dont know true potential of Switch because it's still heavily supply constrained and continue to selling great despite that, so there is some chance that maybe could outsell even PS4 at end even that would be very hard beacuse PS4 is on path to be second 3. best selling gaming hardware ever after PS2 and DS.



Miyamotoo said:
Ali_16x said:

lmao, now that's just delusion, even more so than what the OP is talking about (Not calling the OP delusional, just people that think the Switch will fail, though it depends on what you think is a failure, it will 100% sell more than the Wii U but I'm not sure it'll outsell the 3DS)

There is no way in hell that the Swtich will outsell the PS4, I doubt it'll outsell the PS3.

To be fair we still dont know true potential of Switch because it's still heavily supply constrained and continue to selling great despite that. I dont say it outsell PS4, it will be very hard because PS4 will be second best selling gaming hardware ever after PS2 and DS, but chance always exist. I dont think anybody would be surprised if Switch at end outsold PS3.

 

friendlyfamine said:

Switch outselling PS4 is a delusion. 3DS sales have demonstrated that Pokemon clearly isn't enough when the competition has the likes of GTA, FIFA and COD which counter it. Also, I digress that conceptually, the Switch being a handheld ultimately grants success as it is in the bloodline of those. A lot of the success of the Game Boy, DS and eventually the 3DS came from their affordability. The Switch isn't benefiting from that factor, so we'll have to see how it holds on its own.

-Switch is currently selling better than 3DS in same time period despite fact that costs $300 and that games are $60.

-Switch in same time is aiming home console owners not just handheld owners like GB, DS and 3DS.

-Switch has Splatoon, new 3D Zelda and it will have other home console games, games that  GB, DS and 3DS didnt had, while in same time Switch will have handheld IPs (Pokemon, Animal Crossing...).

-Wii didn't had GTA, but it did had Fifa and CoD, Fifa is coming on Switch, and eventually CoD will also come same like some other 3rd party games buy time.

-Switch will have multiple revisions, buy time it will have much more affordable price point, especially when most likely Nintendo release Switch Mini/Pocket just for handheld play.

 

I dont say that Switch will outsell PS4 but with Switch people need to stay open mined, we still dont know true potential of Switch because it's still heavily supply constrained and continue to selling great despite that, so there is some chance that maybe could outsell even PS4 at end even that would be very hard beacuse PS4 is on path to be second 3. best selling gaming hardware ever after PS2 and DS.

I'd honestly rather have a Switch that sells 80 million units but has a wider variety of software sold more akin to the days of the SNES than 100 million but a very narrow type of software being the only sellers (mostly Nintendo mascot IPs + some third party crap like LEGO and Just Dance). 

To me that's the bigger challenge for Switch ... can it break out of the stigma of being just a "Nintendo system" and actually have a vibrant overall ecosystem of a wide variety of genres and game types that sell. Nintendo hasn't had that in a long time. 



Miyamotoo said:
Ali_16x said:

lmao, now that's just delusion, even more so than what the OP is talking about (Not calling the OP delusional, just people that think the Switch will fail, though it depends on what you think is a failure, it will 100% sell more than the Wii U but I'm not sure it'll outsell the 3DS)

There is no way in hell that the Swtich will outsell the PS4, I doubt it'll outsell the PS3.

To be fair we still dont know true potential of Switch because it's still heavily supply constrained and continue to selling great despite that. I dont say it outsell PS4, it will be very hard because PS4 will be second best selling gaming hardware ever after PS2 and DS, but chance always exist. I dont think anybody would be surprised if Switch at end outsold PS3.

 

friendlyfamine said:

Switch outselling PS4 is a delusion. 3DS sales have demonstrated that Pokemon clearly isn't enough when the competition has the likes of GTA, FIFA and COD which counter it. Also, I digress that conceptually, the Switch being a handheld ultimately grants success as it is in the bloodline of those. A lot of the success of the Game Boy, DS and eventually the 3DS came from their affordability. The Switch isn't benefiting from that factor, so we'll have to see how it holds on its own.

-Switch is currently selling better than 3DS in same time period despite fact that costs $300 and that games are $60.

-Switch in same time is aiming home console owners not just handheld owners like GB, DS and 3DS.

-Switch has Splatoon, new 3D Zelda and it will have other home console games, games that  GB, DS and 3DS didnt had, while in same time Switch will have handheld IPs (Pokemon, Animal Crossing...).

-Wii didn't had GTA, but it did had Fifa and CoD, Fifa is coming on Switch, and eventually CoD will also come same like some other 3rd party games buy time.

-Switch will have multiple revisions, buy time it will have much more affordable price point, especially when most likely Nintendo release Switch Mini/Pocket just for handheld play.

 

I dont say that Switch will outsell PS4 but with Switch people need to stay open mined, we still dont know true potential of Switch because it's still heavily supply constrained and continue to selling great despite that, so there is some chance that maybe could outsell even PS4 at end even that would be very hard beacuse PS4 is on path to be second 3. best selling gaming hardware ever after PS2 and DS.

WiiU had plenty more 3rd party support than switch is having at the moment concerned to "BiG" games:

 

2 Batman arkham games, 2 Assassins Creed Games, FIFA 13, splinter cell blacklist, tekken tag tournaments 2, black ops II, darksiders 1 and 2, Mass effect 3, need for speed most wanted, amazing Spider-Man 1 and 2, call of duty ghost, deus ex human revolution, Injustice: Gods among us, Madden NFL 13, sniper elite V2, watch dogs and a few more.

any big 3rd party games announced at the moment for switch??