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Japan sales- Switch vs 3DS/Wii/DS 1st year edition

Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales- Switch vs 3DS/Wii/DS 1st year edition

What will the Switch outsell in its 1st year?

DS 7 14.00%
 
DS and Wii 13 26.00%
 
3DS,DS and Wii 11 22.00%
 
None 5 10.00%
 
I have no idea 14 28.00%
 
Total:50

Let's hope you won't get lazy this time.



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fatslob-:O said:

Switch has almost no chance of outselling any of the either the DS or 3DS in their respective first year's in Japan until Nintendo can sort out it's supply issues ...

Nintendo only forecasts 10M units for this year and assuming that 2.5M units will be sold to Europe by the end of this year that leaves 7.5M units between the US, Japan and the rest of the world ...

The Switch would have to sell over 4.3M units in Japan to be able to beat those systems but it doesn't look like it'll happen since america has a bigger share of the Switch sales already and the killer app such as Super Mario Odyssey highly favours the american market ...

I agree on 3DS, but it def can beat DS's first year, which was 3.7m. With 1.4m sold and 7 months to go, including a holiday season and better supply (they are delivering on their promise), it can definitely reach that number.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

RolStoppable said:

You make a bunch of bad assumptions. Firstly, the DS only got to ~3.8m in its first year, so that's the bar to beat. Secondly, Nintendo's forecast of 10m is the minimum, not the ceiling. Thirdly, since Japan received shipments of about 0.75m by the end of March 2017, that makes roughly 3m to go; your 2.5m for Europe and the required 3m for Japan still leave 4.5m of the minimum shipment for America and such a breakdown is quite realistic. Fourthly, demand still far outstrips supply in Japan at the current point in time, so the system can get by with SMO being a game that is going to sell between 1-1.5m copies in Japan.

Beating the DS's first year (or the Wii's which is only marginally better) isn't as much of a stretch as you think.

It seems like bad data is culprit on my end ... (And Nintendo's forecast is just that, I don't see it to be anything more or less in it but if anything I'm giving Nintendo the benefit of the doubt that they'll be able to produce enough units and reach their target by the end of the holiday rather than their inital fiscal year ended 2018 expectation.) 

And as of June 3rd according to this sites data the Switch has sold 0.93M units already. With roughly 30 weeks remaining the Switch would have to start averaging a little above 95K per week to be able reach 3.8M units ... (The Switch would have to sell at least an average rate of 40% higher than it already did in the past 14 weeks which included the launch itself so that averaged out to little over 66K per week and not only that but the Switch would have to maintain these rates for twice as long as since the system has been on the shelf!) 

All of this depends on that I only assume Europe's share will double for the rest of the year but there's another elephant in the room which is also the rest of the world which currently makes up a significant portion of the Switch sales already (440K according to this site) but let's just also assume that the region won't be able to grow much further for this year and peg it at 500K ... 

That leaves 7M Switch units to play around with between the US and Japan in a year where Mario is releasing with a relatively strong dollar (Switch costs ~270 USDs in Japan) so Nintendo would have to willingly allocate more stock in Japan to the detriment of their profit margins ... 

In short there's way too many moving parts such as production, regional stock allocation, software and how these shares of hardware sales will develop in each regions to reliably assume that the Switch will outsell the the DS or WII's first year in Japan ... 



60k per week, plus 1 million boost for holidays put it at 4 million.
Itll probably pass wii and ds.



fatslob-:O said:

It seems like bad data is culprit on my end ... (And Nintendo's forecast is just that, I don't see it to be anything more or less in it but if anything I'm giving Nintendo the benefit of the doubt that they'll be able to produce enough units and reach their target by the end of the holiday rather than their inital fiscal year ended 2018 expectation.) 

And as of June 3rd according to this sites data the Switch has sold 0.93M units already. With roughly 30 weeks remaining the Switch would have to start averaging a little above 95K per week to be able reach 3.8M units ... (The Switch would have to sell at least an average rate of 40% higher than it already did in the past 14 weeks which included the launch itself so that averaged out to little over 66K per week and not only that but the Switch would have to maintain these rates for twice as long as since the system has been on the shelf!) 

All of this depends on that I only assume Europe's share will double for the rest of the year but there's another elephant in the room which is also the rest of the world which currently makes up a significant portion of the Switch sales already (440K according to this site) but let's just also assume that the region won't be able to grow much further for this year and peg it at 500K ... 

That leaves 7M Switch units to play around with between the US and Japan in a year where Mario is releasing with a relatively strong dollar (Switch costs ~270 USDs in Japan) so Nintendo would have to willingly allocate more stock in Japan to the detriment of their profit margins ... 

In short there's way too many moving parts such as production, regional stock allocation, software and how these shares of hardware sales will develop in each regions to reliably assume that the Switch will outsell the the DS or WII's first year in Japan ... 

You should start looking at Media Create numbers because they are more up to date than VGC, nevermind that VGC's numbers for Japan are basically an average of what Media Create and Famitsu report each week; there's absolutely no point in waiting for VGC when Japanese sales data is so readily available. The most recent week's sales (87k) and the LTD total (1.43m) are in the OP of this thread, so that means 2.3m to go in the next 6.5 months or 28 weeks. That requires an average weekly sales rate of ~82k units, but that is indeed possible with the already increased supply and the inevitable holiday boost that can make up for a baseline of below 82k.

Of course you are going to perceive it as an almost impossible target to reach when you make basic errors like "I am looking at 14 weeks of sales data, I have to extrapolate for 52 weeks, and 52 minus 14 equates 30." Seriously, slob, what are you doing? If you were rounding, 38 isn't roughly 30.

Also important, my argument is not that Switch will definitely beat the DS's first year, it's disagreement with your assertion that there is almost no chance. Switch has a realistic shot to pull it off.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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If the switch can meet supply constraints then there is enormous potential for it outselling the Wii and DS maybe even get to 4 million in Japan alone but 3DS is far ahead. Lifetime I can see switch doing than 3DS but not the first year. When MonHun and Dragon quest come and then Mario and finally pokemon watch the switch become unattainable in Japan. It will just be a matter of how much Nintendo can produce the system. I honestly think switch in Japan alone has the potential to sell 25million almost double what wii u sold worldwide



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RolStoppable said:

You should start looking at Media Create numbers because they are more up to date than VGC, nevermind that VGC's numbers for Japan are basically an average of what Media Create and Famitsu report each week; there's absolutely no point in waiting for VGC when Japanese sales data is so readily available. The most recent week's sales (87k) and the LTD total (1.43m) are in the OP of this thread, so that means 2.3m to go in the next 6.5 months or 28 weeks. That requires an average weekly sales rate of ~82k units, but that is indeed possible with the already increased supply and the inevitable holiday boost that can make up for a baseline of below 82k.

Of course you are going to perceive it as an almost impossible target to reach when you make basic errors like "I am looking at 14 weeks of sales data, I have to extrapolate for 52 weeks, and 52 minus 14 equates 30." Seriously, slob, what are you doing? If you were rounding, 38 isn't roughly 30.

Also important, my argument is not that Switch will definitely beat the DS's first year, it's disagreement with your assertion that there is almost no chance. Switch has a realistic shot to pull it off.

I thought we we're only counting just this year which ends at the holidays but now we're going to count this 'year' as in next fiscal year which ends in March or are we only counting full one year which is at the end of Feburary ? 

That's how I got my 30 week number left relative from this site's data so far but going further into next year changes everything ... 

If we're going to be counting until either the end of Feburary or March (that becomes 13 months) hitting 3.8M units in Japan does sound more doable ... 



fatslob-:O said:

I thought we we're only counting just this year which ends at the holidays but now we're going to count this 'year' as in next fiscal year which ends in March or are we only counting full one year which is at the end of Feburary ? 

That's how I got my 30 week number left relative from this site's data so far but going further into next year changes everything ... 

If we're going to be counting until either the end of Feburary or March (that becomes 13 months) hitting 3.8M units in Japan does sound more doable ... 

Oh, that explains it. The original post of this thread doesn't explicitly state it, but the link to his previous thread specifies first year as a 52-week-stretch. The first year totals posted by StarDoor also cover exactly this period of time for all consoles.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Weekly Sales on the 25th Week

Switch 3DS Wii DS
22,277 206,065 55,143 26,150

Switch beats 3DS by -183,288 
Switch beats Wii by -32,866 
Switch beats DS by -3,373 

Switch 3DS Wii DS
1,458,308 1,517,336 2,464,135 2,245,295

Switch beats 3DS by -56,028 
Switch beats Wii by -1,005,827 
Switch beats DS by -786,987 

 Sad faces all around this week! The 3DS retakes the lead (again) due to the massive pricecut that was given this week. Also the Switch was hit really hard with stock issues again. However Monster Hunter XX comes out next week with some bundles. Sales should go up. Also Wii and DS are having normal weeks again.

Only 27 weeks until the comparsion ends!

Switch Numbers come from the latest Media Crate Thread Here 
Everything else comes from VGC numbers. 
DS Numbers Here
Wii Numbers Here
3DS Numbers Here

 



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