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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - How much does XB1X need to sell for it to be a success?

mutantsushi said:

What is PS4 selling now? That.
None of this "ratio of current Xbone sales" crap. "Not losing money" is not measure of success.
If Xbone sells like crap, that doesn't make selling X portion of crap any sort of success.
No baby game, junior league 2nd rate standards. If it outsells PS4, it wins, if it doesn't, it loses.
Who knows, maybe it will be the new champ... If not, another pretender that fails trying.

Profitabiltiy or market penetration= Success



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S.T.A.G.E. said:
hudsoniscool said:

That's pure speculation, actually Phil has said that it is not being sold at a loss.

LOL...if you think I am speculating, look it up. Just type "Xbox One X sellig at a loss" in google.  Either that or its just not profitable in general. At mid gen this is a stupid plan. Early in the gen is fine, but at mid gen, no bueno.

I googled and again pure speculation. Sounds like it's right at the break even mark. like you said profitability equals success. So if Xbox one x doesn't make or loose a dollar just on hardware but causes more consoles to be sold over the next couple years and thus leading to more game, and subscription sales would that not equal a success. But seeing as we don't know the r and d costs it's impossible to know for sure how much more software/ service/ subscription sales it needs to bring to be "profitable".



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

hudsoniscool said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

LOL...if you think I am speculating, look it up. Just type "Xbox One X sellig at a loss" in google.  Either that or its just not profitable in general. At mid gen this is a stupid plan. Early in the gen is fine, but at mid gen, no bueno.

I googled and again pure speculation. Sounds like it's right at the break even mark. like you said profitability equals success. So if Xbox one x doesn't make or loose a dollar just on hardware but causes more consoles to be sold over the next couple years and thus leading to more game, and subscription sales would that not equal a success. But seeing as we don't know the r and d costs it's impossible to know for sure how much more software/ service/ subscription sales it needs to bring to be "profitable".

It could just break even but thats probably going to be it. It isnt profiting and its not going to selling enough units to lower the cost of parts anytime soon.  At mid gen most people are looking at the S model if they want an XBox at all. As you said, its about the software and subscriptions, so if a good portion of the people who are getting the X already own an Xbox One or Xbox One S....how much software could that possibly push?



hudsoniscool said:
My take for first full year.
< 1 million= failure
1-1.5 million= ok but on the bad side
1.5-2 million= ok but on the good side
2-2.5 million= good
2.5-3 million = great
3-3.5 million = fantastic
Anything more is unrealistic for a 500$ box. It's also near impossible to guess lifetime sales, as we don't yet know if it will play next gen games.

Looking at your sig I have trouble taking your assumptions serious, no offense. ;)



Errorist76 said:
hudsoniscool said:
My take for first full year.
< 1 million= failure
1-1.5 million= ok but on the bad side
1.5-2 million= ok but on the good side
2-2.5 million= good
2.5-3 million = great
3-3.5 million = fantastic
Anything more is unrealistic for a 500$ box. It's also near impossible to guess lifetime sales, as we don't yet know if it will play next gen games.

Looking at your sig I have trouble taking your assumptions serious, no offense. ;)

Haha I made that years ago and never changed it because I only browse on my phone now and it doesn't show sigs! Anyway I'm a bit more realistic now I think lol. I also thought the one would sell as well as the 360. For the x I'm anticipating between 1.7- 2.3 million sales in its first full year.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

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Depends on whether the dev time value + flat rate costs = profit; dev time value is not the wage price, but rather the value of that employees time to the corporation (someone might get paid 100K per year, but be worth 4M). Another thing to factor in is share holder expectation which could raise or lower the value of Microsoft shares. Then lastly the number of new permanent customers Microsoft gets, as people just upgrading their console are little to no additional value other than the small bit of extra profit they receive on that console - since software profits don't increase on those customers.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

LethalP said:

It might sell at a higher ratio than the Pro does, but it will probably still sell less overall. As for it being a success, I suppose selling at least 1:5 like the Pro will do fine considering that's the only reference point for mid gen upgrades we have.

That would be if MS guys here would decide PS4Pro is a sucess... when we got the numbers and statistic for PS4Pro most were saying it was underwhelming and before that they were calling it a flop and useless piece of HW.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
LethalP said:

It might sell at a higher ratio than the Pro does, but it will probably still sell less overall. As for it being a success, I suppose selling at least 1:5 like the Pro will do fine considering that's the only reference point for mid gen upgrades we have.

That would be if MS guys here would decide PS4Pro is a sucess... when we got the numbers and statistic for PS4Pro most were saying it was underwhelming and before that they were calling it a flop and useless piece of HW.

Then they're in a glass house because the Pro will probably sell about 4 million in it's first 12 months. That's more than half what the Xbox One sells total in the same time frame.



LethalP said:
DonFerrari said:

That would be if MS guys here would decide PS4Pro is a sucess... when we got the numbers and statistic for PS4Pro most were saying it was underwhelming and before that they were calling it a flop and useless piece of HW.

Then they're in a glass house because the Pro will probably sell about 4 million in it's first 12 months. That's more than half what the Xbox One sells total in the same time frame.

I'm sure they will find a way to make Xbox numbers more impressive and PS4Pro numbers very bad.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
LethalP said:

Then they're in a glass house because the Pro will probably sell about 4 million in it's first 12 months. That's more than half what the Xbox One sells total in the same time frame.

I'm sure they will find a way to make Xbox numbers more impressive and PS4Pro numbers very bad.

Lots of people are overestimating the Xbox One. They seem unable to get to grips with the idea that PS4 is more than just doubling it. They have no idea of the discrepancy of scale these two are selling at. They want to believe PS4 is 60 million and Xbox One is like 35 million, or even 40 million. They are getting almost doubled in the US in 2017, world wide has to be some crazy PS2 style beating.

VGChartz seem wary of putting the PS4's numbers 2:1 over the Xbox One yet I bet it past that a while ago. EA estimated 25.6 million Xbox Ones by Jan 2017 while PS4 was 53.4 million. That's perhaps the most accurate estimation we have, a third party publisher should have at least a clue on the install base they're targeting.