And lots of people said it would not happen in the same threads and a few suggested thinking so was stupidity. So which random internet poster is our reference?

I think you've mistaken year for fiscal year as the was a thread for fiscal year, fiscal year is a full 12 months from March to March and the prediction was for which platform would be number 1 in the fiscal year.

Well to be at 10 million so early in its life 9 months it has to beat or at least come close the first 9 months of the PS4. Nintendo has proven that unlike Sony they can't keep up with demand, which makes achieving deadlines  and goals more difficult (than neccesary). I think the Switch will sell 11 or 12 million units this year. But that entirely depends on Nintendo's supply and not on demand, unlike the PS4 which was in full supply six months after launch. I sincerely doubt Nintendo can produce more than 5 million Switches for November and December well selling a 0.75- 1 million a month from 1st of July till October 30th. Which is the 12 million scenario.

Just using exact numbers. Why are you mad that I'm using exact numbers?

My point was not comparing with PS4 sales, but I referred to his post where he writes "seems low".

To achieve 10m at end of this year, Nintendo needs to sale around 700k consoles in July, August and September, and only around 1m in October, November and December, that's easily achievable, but even that depends from stocks.

Just depends on whether or not Nintendo can fix their shortages.. if they can, then there is a good chance it could

Maybe, because there are 3 main factors that will determine this:

1) Supply - At the current rate, 10M is impossible: 600K/month * 5 months = 3M; 3M + 4.7M = 7.7M. In essence, they would need to double their supply rate and maintain global demand. That's asking a lot.

2) Demand - With the current supply constraints, no reliable demand can be established. The Switch is readily available in Europe now, but very limited in JPN, USA, and CA. If the polls I've run on here are any indication, Nintendo has only met about 72% of our demand (Up only 5% on the month before, and flat from June to July). It could be that demand is met by December, we overreport as more likely early adopters, 6.6M is total demand, etc. I think next week's poll will be very telling and that I should have done my poll with regional breakdowns.

3) XB1X - Preorders start any day now, and MS could (probably won't) steal the holiday thunder, which could hamper the Y17 Switch sales.

I still think it could beat Wii U lifetime numbers if it gets restocked sooner, but everyday that goes by without maintaining stock I get slightly more doubtful. That being said, I still see 10 million by the latest December. Just depends on stock.

They will sell as many as they ship. They are still vastly under the current demand in weekly shipments. I bet Japan alone could have a 300k week if Nintendo shipped 300k, with all the people that want to get Switch now that Splatoon is out.

I would assume, even if Nintendo is having a hard time with parts shortages, that they will at least be able to keep the 600-700k/month that they've been doing while still being able to hold back shipments for the holidays. So hopefully worse case scenario they make 9-10 million Switches this year. Hopefully they'll be able to up production a good amount and sell make/sell 11-12 million.

Splatoon 2 did amazingly in Japan for a launch. That's almost half what the original sold lifetime. I'm not sure why people had higher expectations. Splatoon 2 was probably a 1.2-1.5 million seller in the first week, however, that's just an assumption based on the tie-ratio of the other regions' sales on Splatoon 1. ARMS also did pretty good as well for a new IP in sales, but it was butchered by a small install-base and the $60 price tag. If Nintendo doesn't continue the testpunches for ARMS, future Switch owners will likely ignore the game and the sales will be stagnant. It's not the type of game you dish out $60 on unless you've played it, and only people who bought the Switch at launch had the opportunity. Anyway, 10 million seems to be likely. We'll need to see how the Switch holds up in the future, but so far this is comfortable. The Switch software is coming rather slow but the momentum is just being built up.