Don't forget that VGC doesn't include digital, so unless it had the worst digital sales rate ever then the undertrack would be a fair bit less than that.
Actually, if around 16 or 17% of Zelda sales are digital (would actually be below the average digital %) then VGC would be almost spot on. So depending on digital, could actually be a bit overtracked.
VGC is still missing three weeks to end of june for software and four for hardware. That explains most of the difference.