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Forums - Sales Discussion - What games on PS4/XB1/Switch will sell 10 million+?

Green098 on 16 July 2017
friendlyfamine said:

Green098 said:

Since they just said Pokemon they could be including third verions, which would be pretty accurate. Apart from that though, I don't see what's so far-fetched about these numbers. These are pretty typical numbers for Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Super Smash Brothers and 2D Mario. All of these sold over 10 million on the 3DS except for Smash Brothers, but Wii U version included it's over 10 million. Zelda is definitely on it's way to doing 10 million, and while 16 million seems to high for Odyssey 10-12 million seems about right. Also if Splatoon can sell almost 5 million on a 13 million install base, 10 million seems likely for the Switch.

"Typical numbers" for a successful console. The Switch hasn't proven to be successful yet- so this is indeed far-fetched for a console only 4 MONTHS old with only 3 months of NPD data. If we get 16 million units sold by March 2018 and the Switch maintains 330k sold weekly, this would be slightly believable. But right now as it stands, Nintendo consoles have not reached those type of numbers. Only their handhelds have- and the Switch is not priced as a handheld console. You've also implied Splatoon will sell near Odyssey, I mean that's just wrong no matter how you look at it.

People are treating this like it's the next DS. Consistent double digit sellers have only occurred on the DS and Wii.

No Zelda game has sold above 10 million also.

Splatoon sold almost practically the same as 3D world so it's not that hard to believe it can't close to those numbers. Beside you say we are treating like this is a DS, I didn't use any DS numbers, I used 3DS numbers. A console doesn't need to sell 100 million+ to get these kind of software numbers. Just because a Zelda game hasn't sold 10 million before doesn't mean this one won't, there hasn't been a Zelda quite like this one, esspecially on something that's also a handheld.



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friendlyfamine on 16 July 2017
StarDoor said:
friendlyfamine said:

"Typical numbers" for a successful console. The Switch hasn't proven to be successful yet- so this is indeed far-fetched for a console only 4 MONTHS old with only 3 months of NPD data. If we get 16 million units sold by March 2018 and the Switch maintains 330k sold weekly, this would be slightly believable. But right now as it stands, Nintendo consoles have not reached those type of numbers. Only their handhelds have- and the Switch is not priced as a handheld console. You've also implied Splatoon will sell near Odyssey, I mean that's just wrong no matter how you look at it.

People are treating this like it's the next DS. Consistent double digit sellers have only occurred on the DS and Wii. And let me remind you most of that is filled with the DS and Wii branded crap.

No Zelda game has sold above 10 million also.

The 3DS has seven 10 million sellers, and the Switch is easily outpacing it.

You guys don't seem to understand what I'm instigating, here. The Switch is indefinitely a better device than the 3DS, but are you considering what made the 3DS successful? The 3DS was carried by affordability, and this is obvious by the fact that in the first few months, the 3DS wasn't selling too hot. It's not until it's huge price cut that it started selling well. 

How can we certain that the Switch will outsell the 3DS? The 3DS maintained high sales, and we can't be sure the Switch will do the same. Especially with all these stock issues that have gone uninvestigated, the Switch is losing to the PS4. All these sales lists I'm seeing are all wishful thinking by Nintendo fans, expecting the Switch to sell 100 million. Keep it feasible. Realistically, Mario Odyssey, Pokemon and probably a new Mario Kart could hit 10 million. The rest will cap at either 7 or less. Unless the Switch ends up being a groundbreaking success that outsells the PS4, nun of this is happening.



friendlyfamine on 16 July 2017
Green098 said:

Splatoon sold almost practically the same as 3D world so it's not that hard to believe it can't close to those numbers. Beside you say we are treating like this is a DS, I didn't use any DS numbers, I used 3DS numbers. A console doesn't need to sell 100 million+ to get these kind of software numbers. Just because a Zelda game hasn't sold 10 million before doesn't mean this one won't, there hasn't been a Zelda quite like this one, esspecially on something that's also a handheld.

3D World is a bad comparison since 3D World was not nearly as hyped as Odyssey was. 3D World was the worst-selling 3D Mario by far, and for a reason. The idea of it being a sequel to 3D Land didn't intrigue many people and is perceived as not a real 3D Mario. Mario Odyssey has, what, 30 million views combined for both youtube trailers? I don't recall 3D World even hitting anything as high as that. And well, yes, a console does need 100 million to hit the software numbers the guy I replied to implied. 20-25 for Pokemon will only happen with those sort of numbers. 10 million? Sure. But not 20. Zelda could hit 10 million, but his prediction of 12-13 or whatever it was is double what the best-selling Zelda has sold. My point is that these predictions are far-fetched, and well, they are. These predictions are loosely based on the Switch being an incredibly successful console, and right now, it's far too early to make that prediction. Absolutely anything can happen- and people are getting far too excited. It's giving me that Michael Pachter vibe.  



StarDoor on 16 July 2017
friendlyfamine said:
StarDoor said:

The 3DS has seven 10 million sellers, and the Switch is easily outpacing it.

You guys don't seem to understand what I'm instigating, here. The Switch is indefinitely a better device than the 3DS, but are you considering what made the 3DS successful? The 3DS was carried by affordability, and this is obvious by the fact that in the first few months, the 3DS wasn't selling too hot. It's not until it's huge price cut that it started selling well. 

How can we certain that the Switch will outsell the 3DS? The 3DS maintained high sales, and we can't be sure the Switch will do the same. Especially with all these stock issues that have gone uninvestigated, the Switch is losing to the PS4. All these sales lists I'm seeing are all wishful thinking by Nintendo fans, expecting the Switch to sell 100 million. Keep it feasible. Realistically, Mario Odyssey, Pokemon and probably a new Mario Kart could hit 10 million. The rest will cap at either 7 or less. Unless the Switch ends up being a groundbreaking success that outsells the PS4, nun of this is happening.

Your agrument doesn't make any sense. The Switch is selling better than the 3DS in spite of a much higher price. The 3DS needed to be $170 to sell like the Switch at $300. So how do you expect the Switch to do worse overall, when in a few years the price will be in the typical handheld range? Do you think the Switch will never get price cuts or revisions?

Also, how have the stock issues gone "uninvestiaged"? It's been one of the most discussed topics for months now. We know the cause, and we know that July and onward will see the effects of increased production.

The Switch doesn't even need to reach 100 million to have multiple 10 million sellers. All it has to do is match the 3DS, and it will do that easily.



friendlyfamine on 16 July 2017
StarDoor said:
friendlyfamine said:

You guys don't seem to understand what I'm instigating, here. The Switch is indefinitely a better device than the 3DS, but are you considering what made the 3DS successful? The 3DS was carried by affordability, and this is obvious by the fact that in the first few months, the 3DS wasn't selling too hot. It's not until it's huge price cut that it started selling well. 

How can we certain that the Switch will outsell the 3DS? The 3DS maintained high sales, and we can't be sure the Switch will do the same. Especially with all these stock issues that have gone uninvestigated, the Switch is losing to the PS4. All these sales lists I'm seeing are all wishful thinking by Nintendo fans, expecting the Switch to sell 100 million. Keep it feasible. Realistically, Mario Odyssey, Pokemon and probably a new Mario Kart could hit 10 million. The rest will cap at either 7 or less. Unless the Switch ends up being a groundbreaking success that outsells the PS4, nun of this is happening.

Your agrument doesn't make any sense. The Switch is selling better than the 3DS in spite of a much higher price. The 3DS needed to be $170 to sell like the Switch at $300. So how do you expect the Switch to do worse overall, when in a few years the price will be in the typical handheld range? Do you think the Switch will never get price cuts or revisions?

Also, how have the stock issues gone "uninvestiaged"? It's been one of the most discussed topics for months now. We know the cause, and we know that July and onward will see the effects of increased production.

The Switch doesn't even need to reach 100 million to have multiple 10 million sellers. All it has to do is match the 3DS, and it will do that easily.

With only a few months worth of data. You're forgetting about the word "maintenance" that I mentioned. The 3DS and Switch are very close in NPD sales when you look at the launch. It's not like the Switch is selling 2 million more, and is definitely going to outsell it. It's absolutely unknown if the Switch will outsell the 3DS, and right now stock issues are looking to prevent that. The stock issues are "uninvestigated" as it hasn't been confirmed by Nintendo as to why they are having stock issues. Only speculation and reports from news sites that aren't necessarily true, or could just be excuses. Also, refer back to my first comment, most of the multiple 10 million sellers on the 3DS were just barely 10 million sellers, only Pokemon and Mario proved to sell that much. You can't really compare this to the 3DS when prices of games are involved, and totally different games are being concerned, like a main Zelda and Splatoon- selling over 10 million.



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StarDoor on 16 July 2017
friendlyfamine said:
StarDoor said:

Your agrument doesn't make any sense. The Switch is selling better than the 3DS in spite of a much higher price. The 3DS needed to be $170 to sell like the Switch at $300. So how do you expect the Switch to do worse overall, when in a few years the price will be in the typical handheld range? Do you think the Switch will never get price cuts or revisions?

Also, how have the stock issues gone "uninvestiaged"? It's been one of the most discussed topics for months now. We know the cause, and we know that July and onward will see the effects of increased production.

The Switch doesn't even need to reach 100 million to have multiple 10 million sellers. All it has to do is match the 3DS, and it will do that easily.

With only a few months worth of data. You're forgetting about the word "maintenance" that I mentioned. The 3DS and Switch are very close in NPD sales when you look at the launch. It's not like the Switch is selling 2 million more, and is definitely going to outsell it. It's absolutely unknown if the Switch will outsell the 3DS, and right now stock issues are looking to prevent that. The stock issues are "uninvestigated" as it hasn't been confirmed by Nintendo as to why they are having stock issues. Only speculation and reports from news sites that aren't necessarily true, or could just be excuses. Also, refer back to my first comment, most of the multiple 10 million sellers on the 3DS were just barely 10 million sellers, only Pokemon and Mario proved to sell that much. You can't really compare this to the 3DS when prices of games are involved, and totally different games are being concerned, like a main Zelda and Splatoon- selling over 10 million.

Very close?! What the hell are you smoking?

3DS March 2011: 398k

3DS April 2011: 194k

3DS May 2011: 97k

Switch March 2017: 906k

Switch April 2017: 280k

Switch May 2017: ~190k

It's not close at all. The 3DS is 700k behind after three months and didn't even reach the Switch's first month until August!



friendlyfamine on 16 July 2017
StarDoor said:
friendlyfamine said:

With only a few months worth of data. You're forgetting about the word "maintenance" that I mentioned. The 3DS and Switch are very close in NPD sales when you look at the launch. It's not like the Switch is selling 2 million more, and is definitely going to outsell it. It's absolutely unknown if the Switch will outsell the 3DS, and right now stock issues are looking to prevent that. The stock issues are "uninvestigated" as it hasn't been confirmed by Nintendo as to why they are having stock issues. Only speculation and reports from news sites that aren't necessarily true, or could just be excuses. Also, refer back to my first comment, most of the multiple 10 million sellers on the 3DS were just barely 10 million sellers, only Pokemon and Mario proved to sell that much. You can't really compare this to the 3DS when prices of games are involved, and totally different games are being concerned, like a main Zelda and Splatoon- selling over 10 million.

Very close?! What the hell are you smoking?

3DS March 2011: 398k

3DS April 2011: 194k

3DS May 2011: 97k

Switch March 2017: 906k

Switch April 2017: 280k

Switch May 2017: ~190k

It's not close at all. The 3DS is 700k behind after three months and didn't even reach the Switch's first month until August!

Uh, the 2012 NPD after the price drop, not the 2011 one where the 3DS did horribly. Comparing the 3DS launch isn't really fair at all.



StarDoor on 16 July 2017
friendlyfamine said:
StarDoor said:

Very close?! What the hell are you smoking?

3DS March 2011: 398k

3DS April 2011: 194k

3DS May 2011: 97k

Switch March 2017: 906k

Switch April 2017: 280k

Switch May 2017: ~190k

It's not close at all. The 3DS is 700k behind after three months and didn't even reach the Switch's first month until August!

Uh, the 2012 NPD after the price drop, not the 2011 one where the 3DS did horribly. Comparing the 3DS launch isn't really fair at all.

Hahaha. Wow. Now that's some goalpost shifting. You even said "when you look at the launch"! But I'll humor you.

3DS March 2012: 225k

3DS April 2012: 125k

3DS May 2012: 114k

You know, that's still not very close.



friendlyfamine on 16 July 2017
StarDoor said:
friendlyfamine said:

Uh, the 2012 NPD after the price drop, not the 2011 one where the 3DS did horribly. Comparing the 3DS launch isn't really fair at all.

Hahaha. Wow. Now that's some goalpost shifting. You even said "when you look at the launch"! But I'll humor you.

3DS March 2012: 225k

3DS April 2012: 125k

3DS May 2012: 114k

You know, that's still not very close.

If I said "launch" then that obviously was a mistake, because the 3DS launch was garbage and there's nothing impressive about comparing it to anything. And it is close enough, what I would consider far off is 2 million, as I already mentioned. Again, this small sample size doesn't reflect the Switch's future, the whole reason I came into this thread when I saw people making up these figures.



StarDoor on 16 July 2017
friendlyfamine said:
StarDoor said:

Hahaha. Wow. Now that's some goalpost shifting. You even said "when you look at the launch"! But I'll humor you.

3DS March 2012: 225k

3DS April 2012: 125k

3DS May 2012: 114k

You know, that's still not very close.

If I said "launch" then that obviously was a mistake, because the 3DS launch was garbage and there's nothing impressive about comparing it to anything. And it is close enough, what I would consider far off is 2 million, as I already mentioned. Again, this small sample size doesn't reflect the Switch's future, the whole reason I came into this thread when I saw people making up these figures.

2 million? What are you even talking about? 2 million over the three months that we have data for? The Wii didn't even sell 2 million total in its first three months, let alone 2 million more than the 3DS, and that was a holiday launch.