As for my opinion, I think it would be the DS curve, only slightly less of a peak for 75~105 mil. If it doesn't get shit on later in its life like the wii it can outsell the wii, like most ps4 predictions are becoming.

Well I'll call 3ds~psp numbers (70~80 mil) a mild success. They'll get WAY more money then thier previous model of handheld/console production after all cause

1. Games are 60$

2. Software output is literally doubled

3. Ninty makes a ton of first party content unlike sony

I really doubt that the Switch is going to be comparable to the N64 or GameCube. With those consoles, many of the biggest hits were released within the 15 or 18 months of the platform's life (Super Mario 64, Mario Kart 64, Goldeneye, Melee, Super Mario Sunshine, Wind Waker, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing, etc). Not only does Nintendo seem to be doing a better job at timing its releases on the Switch, they are going to have less distractions to divert developer focus (the Virtual Boy, N64 Disk Drive, N64 peripherals, the early DS launch, etc). The DS has what might be the opposite problem, since it had to compete with the GBA and the PSP for a while before really taking front stage.

Numbers more like the SNES or Game Boy would require a game-changer latter in the Switch's life, like Donkey Kong Country and Pokemon. This is entirely possible, but can't be counted upon.

The 3DS and Wii patterns seem entirely possible, seeing how Nintendo will support the Switch heavily through 2019 and keep it around for a full cycle, unlike the Wii U and GBA.

This suggests Switch lifetime sales circa 50 million.

If I had to guess, I think Switch sales will be somewhat higher than that. From what I know of the hardware, the Switch uses a lot of mobile components, which seem to be constantly falling in price or having breakthroughs. That, along with the mid-life redesign phenomenon that works great for handheld systems, can give the Switch a second wind at some point. This sort of thing HAS happened before with the DSi and Xbox 360.

Very good thread.

I agree.  40mm seems about right to me, considering that they're still pushing the 3DS, and show no signs of stopping.  Given that, I'd certainly consider 40mm, over the next 5 years or so, to be a success.  Maybe if they stop producing any heavy hitters for 3DS, and bring all of their first party stuff to Switch, they can do 50-60mm over that time.  

The wii u sales were so bad that 4 times it's sales is still considered a failure for console especially in these days.

That's like iPhone level of sales. Or better.

I'd say anything over 150m is unrealistic.

Uh. Yes. I think it's pretty unrealistic to expect the Switch to sell more than 3 times as much as the current best-selling console of all time. Are you saying that you don't?

Well there are only 7 million people on Earth, so yeah, pretty unlikely