Funny part is, my thoughts back then were quite extreme compared to what seemed like most people's thinking. Where many didn't think it would do better than Wii U, I thought it would do Wii U + 3DS sales, so roughly 90 million. Now my seemingly radical prediction is getting blown away lol.
AltarofKez said:
Maybe. |
Excellent necrobump 
Why do so many people think every Nintendo console only has a life span of 5 years?
| Dulfite said: Funny part is, my thoughts back then were quite extreme compared to what seemed like most people's thinking. Where many didn't think it would do better than Wii U, I thought it would do Wii U + 3DS sales, so roughly 90 million. Now my seemingly radical prediction is getting blown away lol. |
In the beginning, I predicted 80-110M, how wrong I was.
| Kakadu18 said: Why do so many people think every Nintendo console only has a life span of 5 years? |
only look at the bad sales and miss the good sales.
NES, GB, DS, SNES, WII, 3DS are not Nintendo consoles.
Only counts N64, GC, Wiiu
Well the not selling near the Wii part is right at least since it'll do at least 40 million more so nowhere near it.
Agente42 said:
only look at the bad sales and miss the good sales. NES, GB, DS, SNES, WII, 3DS are not Nintendo consoles. Only counts N64, GC, Wiiu |
NES 1983
SNES 1990
N64 1996
GC 2001
Wii 2006
Wii U 2012
Switch 2017
Some had short windows of 5 or less years, but on average about 6 year gap between each. However, over the last 4 new generations, that average is closer to 5 between each gen, including going from the highly successful Wii to the Wii U.
This is one of the many reasons I think Nintendo releasing in 2024 or later would be uncharacteristic of them, seeing as that would be 7+ years later and they historically do 6 year cycles and lately closer to 5 year cycles.
| Kakadu18 said: Why do so many people think every Nintendo console only has a life span of 5 years? |
n64 - 1996 (5 years)
GC - 2001 (5 years)
Wii - 2006 (6 years)
WiiU - 2012 (5 years)
Switch - 2017
This is probably why.
But boiling it down to "must sell X for 5 years" is a very dumb way of looking at it.
As always Pachter is right. Switch sales won't be near the Wii's sale.
Dulfite said:
NES 1983 SNES 1990 N64 1996 GC 2001 Wii 2006 Wii U 2012 Switch 2017 Some had short windows of 5 or less years, but on average about 6 year gap between each. However, over the last 4 new generations, that average is closer to 5 between each gen, including going from the highly successful Wii to the Wii U. This is one of the many reasons I think Nintendo releasing in 2024 or later would be uncharacteristic of them, seeing as that would be 7+ years later and they historically do 6 year cycles and lately closer to 5 year cycles. |
You ignore the handhelds.
GB 1989
GBA 2001
NDS 2004
3DS 2011
With the exception of the GBA they all had a longer life than 6 years. The 3DS was actively supported until 2019 even. Their average with that is over 6 years.
Again appart from the GBA the length of their consoles often depends on it's success and the ones with a shorter than 6 years life were always low sellers.
I just find the mindset weird that some of the earlier posts in this thread shared, that all Nintendo systems have a 5 year life and therefore the Switch's life would also be 5 years.
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