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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Master analyst, Michael Pachter, predicts that Switch will not sell near Wii.

I actually agree - it won't sell near Wii. It will actually (or at least has the potential to) sell far better than the Wii. Remember, Switch is also a portable, and Nintendo has almost completely dominated in the portable industry. Nintendo has sold almost 120 million Gameboys and over 150 million DS's. Why couldn't the Switch perform similarly? People only seem to like using the "Switch is a portable" argument mainly to undermine them - but it works the other way too.

Don't get me wrong, I still think something like 80 million is far more realistic, but if the platform gets a steady stream of solid games, gets a redesign or two, and gets supported by Nintendo for 8-10 years, who knows? The sky is the limit. 



 

"We hold these truths to be self-evident - all men and women created by the, go-you know.. you know the thing!" - Joe Biden

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KBG29 said:
As is, I believe he is right. It is exciting now, but its limited feature set will soon kill the buzz just like the Wii craze died so quickly after the 4 years. I do think it is in Nintendos power to make it a success greater than Wii though. A Switch Phone would help them move many, many more units. If they broaden their business, Switch will do amazing. If they hide away as a games only device, the sales will continue to decline.

Jesus, why are you always talking about the Switch phone? It is a terrible idea that will never work.

The reason why mobile games do so well is that they are free (or at least are free with microtransactions). No one will pay $60 a game to play on a phone. Heck, even Mario run was hated with its price tag. Think before posting.



Aeolus451 said:
This thread will be a nice necro later on either way. I agree with pachter on that because it's a safe bet.

The Switch is currently doing well, but I know everyone is interested in how it will do in the long run.

My estimate was pretty conservative since the NX hybrid-rumour days. I had 50 million as worst case scenario and 80 million as best case scenario. How the Switch does in the end will be neat to see.



monocle_layton said:
Aeolus451 said:
This thread will be a nice necro later on either way. I agree with pachter on that because it's a safe bet.

The Switch is currently doing well, but I know everyone is interested in how it will do in the long run.

My estimate was pretty conservative since the NX hybrid-rumour days. I had 50 million as worst case scenario and 80 million as best case scenario. How the Switch does in the end will be neat to see.

This is almost exactly where I stand, if Nintendo sticks to a 5 year lifespan and moves on afterwards without many bundles and no redesigns - though like I said in my previous post, a redesign or two and a deticated effort be Nintendo to support the console for an additional 3-5 years, and we could be seeing greater numbers even than that.



 

"We hold these truths to be self-evident - all men and women created by the, go-you know.. you know the thing!" - Joe Biden

DarthMetalliCube said:
monocle_layton said:

The Switch is currently doing well, but I know everyone is interested in how it will do in the long run.

My estimate was pretty conservative since the NX hybrid-rumour days. I had 50 million as worst case scenario and 80 million as best case scenario. How the Switch does in the end will be neat to see.

This is almost exactly where I stand, if Nintendo sticks to a 5 year lifespan and moves on afterwards - though like I said in my previous post, a redesign or two and a deticated effort be Nintendo to support the console for an additional 3-5 years, and we could be seeing greater numbers even than that.

Probably; I just felt like having a pessimistic goal this time. I had 50 million for the Wii U, and I was sure Nintendo would rebound from their mistakes. 

 

OT- With pachter's predictions, the Switch will move on to sell 1 billion units by 2018.



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monocle_layton said:
Aeolus451 said:
This thread will be a nice necro later on either way. I agree with pachter on that because it's a safe bet.

The Switch is currently doing well, but I know everyone is interested in how it will do in the long run.

My estimate was pretty conservative since the NX hybrid-rumour days. I had 50 million as worst case scenario and 80 million as best case scenario. How the Switch does in the end will be neat to see.

It will probably be around in that ballpark to be honest but if it manages to sell lower than 50 million I'll consider it a failure.



It all depends on if the "Switch" hardware line is continued under incremental revisions similar to the Game Boy or DS line of hardware (i.e. GB, GB Pocket, GB Color etc), in which case I believe total unit sales of all Switch variants would top 100 mil worldwide. I think the current iteration of the Switch will peak at about 60-65 mil units.



On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.

"Master Analyst". Okay? So we finally reach that limit, when things stop being funny and get worrisome?



 

 

We reap what we sow

Aeolus451 said:
monocle_layton said:

The Switch is currently doing well, but I know everyone is interested in how it will do in the long run.

My estimate was pretty conservative since the NX hybrid-rumour days. I had 50 million as worst case scenario and 80 million as best case scenario. How the Switch does in the end will be neat to see.

It will probably be around in that ballpark to be honest but if it manages to sell lower than 50 million I'll consider it a failure.

At the current rate the Switch is selling, looks like it'll surpass the Wii U this year. That's with production issues; it'll probably be higher as the bidding war slows down



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