Even if some japanese devs made a really lewd game :p

You know the american publishers would be sure to censor everything.

So no glorious 4k pixel c for you!

import the game then

30 million sold
Add the 17 million Xbox 1 X's brings it to 47 million, would have to break 50m then
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/268580/dfc-xbox-one-x-to-sell-17-million-units-by-2021/

That article is crazy though.... those analyst at dfc have lost their marbles.

How is a 500$ console going to sell 17m units of xbox one x's in basically just 4 years (2018-2021), since its releaseing near the end of 2017.

They think Xbox One X will be over 50% of all xbox one sales going forwards, thats nuts.

PS4pro is like 20%.

Yup, it's fucking mental alright, if you were to hold the Xbox 1 to the same ratio as the ps4 pro (which is less expensive than the X1X) that would mean that by 2021 a further 85m Xbox 1 consoles will sell... bringing the total up to 115, besting the X360/PS3/Wii/PSone

It's mind blowing.

From a simple break down on the math of things btw, if the X1 is currently at 30m units sold, and sells 80k units per week, if it can keep this average going indefinitely it would take 250 weeks to reach 50m sold (20m / 80k) so 4 3/4 years at the current rate of sales are needed to break 50m.

It's possible, the system will obviously have spikes in the holidays and with the launch of the X1X but really I think 50m would be the limit of it's success as of now, I really can't see it breaching the 60m mark before they pull the plug, unless something major happens.

It depends on how much longer it'll go. It may likely get passed 50 mil, but perhaps not much higher than that.

I think we need a different measure of success. I mean How many of these new console sales are new owners? If last gen is anything to go by where some consumers double and triple dipped, then this does not mean much, specially since the console will be sold at cost or a slight lost. Double dipping will be more common now that mid gen refreshes actually improve in power. Or just make the success requirement a lot higher to adjust for double dipping, or just follow how much more software is being sold.

I think that is one area we don't discuss much on here (I even had a thread about console reliability many years back which was quickly closed down because I guess discussing a console reliability is a hard emotional topic for some fans).  I've seen it discussed sometimes and most people know that double and triple dipping occurs because either they have or they know someone that has.

It probably first started occuring more frequently for handheld considering Nintendo does a few revisions every generation.  However, I'd argue that double/triple dipping has started occuring more often for home console systems with the introduction of disc drives and some recent consoles that had bad reliability.  I believe I was the only one to mention the PS2 disc drive failures in the DVD wasn't the reason why PS2 sold so much thread. I wasn't trying to beat down the PS2 top sales over it but it was a known fact that many people's PS2 simply just quit working.  So what did they do?  They usually just ran out and bought another one because their warranty was probably out at the time and they didn't want to deal with customer service.  That is what many people did for the 360 also.  I had a coworker that was telling me about his RROD and how he was going to go buy a new one.  I informed him that he could send it back to Microsoft for free because they had to extend all warranties back then.  He was like meh, I'll just go to the store.  I was like okay...

It might be considered that it is just beating a dead horse.  However, I'm not going to simply ignore or forget facts about a system.  I think most companies should be striving for rebuys through revisions and not hardware failure.  I would be pissed off about a hardware failure because most systems in the past were built right and had few defects.  Sure the NES tray hinge could break back in the day but you know what you could just shove another game in there to hold it down.  It would be nice to see rebuys through revisions and not through hardware failures.

Okay, let me do some math for you. I shouldn't have to elaborate, but I will.

I'm low balling at 5 million, X1 has sold an average of about 8.5 million a year. If it could maintain that that, then it would be at 50 million in about 2 years. That's assuming its at about 35 million after this holiday. But if there is sales decline, maybe 3 years.

There MIGHT be a PS5 in 2020, but its very possible MS will wait a year longer to release a new console. The X1X is a powerful device so there isn't a much need to rush a new platform on the market. People expect PS5 to be mega powerful, but I'm thinking its gonna be pretty modest if they aim for $399 again.

So at the rate things are going... 50 million for X1 isn't a crazy prediction at all.