Agree with that somewhat. If the PS5 releases 2018 for example and it's a hit, the PS4 might just about make it to PS1/Wii numbers when it's discontinued. But if PS5 releases in November 2020, the PS4 will sell 100 million before it's even released. PS5 backwards compatibility could kill PS4 sales too, but it's doing over 100 mill in any case.

Agree with that somewhat. If the PS5 releases 2018 for example and it's a hit, the PS4 might just about make it to PS1/Wii numbers when it's discontinued. But if PS5 releases in November 2020, the PS4 will sell 100 million before it's even released. PS5 backwards compatibility could kill PS4 sales too, but it's doing over 100 mill in any case.

The PS4 is basically beasting. It's the fundamental game console of choice this gen. 60.4 million hardware and 487 million software in it's first 3 and a half years. For it to sell half a billion software in that time is actually insane. But get this, the first two years of a consoles life is normally the smallest in software sales due to the low install base. So it's not unwise to assume that the PS4 might actually eclipse 1 billion software in the next 3.5 years considering consoles sell more software in their second half of life. And will go on to do 1.4 billion lifetime, easily I say.

As for the hardware, It'l hit 100 million by 2020. And it's going to sell for $149 to $99 after that making it an impulse purchase with it's very impressive library by then. Trust me, it'l hit 130 million. I'd bet this accout but honestly it isn't up to much anyway soo.

Do you agree? Or am I talking shite?

There is a bit of a misunderstanding here. You don't seem to have read it detail but let me a bit more clear here...

First Xbox... XB1 will definitely lose market share (from 50% to a 24-33% share among HD consoles), I agree. However, the HD Consoles overall will gain market share against the Wii console from 60% to the 80-90% range. Assuming that the market size stays constant (which I doubt), the given range is what MATH tells me. The variation between 47.5 to 73.3 million is there because of those two ranges (80-90% for HD, 24-33% for XB1).

Basically the same story for PS4. Now think about it to meaningfully compare it with the PS2 era.

- XB1's competition is much more fierce than the competition from original Xbox but it's comparable to the Xbox & Gamecube combined.

- The market is much larger than the PS2 era.

- We are talking about a 7 year run. PS2 had sold 100 million when PS3 was released. 50+ sales happened after drastic price cuts. Assuming PS5 won't be released before 2020, PS4 has plenty of time to catch up!

- PS4 will have sold about 6 million in 6 months, so 12 million / year is easily doable. This puts the totals to 60 million for 5 years, and 84 million for 7 years. However, the price cuts will happen! A 25% price cut will include a comparable amount of sales increase, so 2-3 years down the line, you can expect 15-16 million annual sales, which brings the totals to around 70 million in 5 years and 100 millions in 7 years. And that's the minimum because it hasn't even been released in Japan and some other countries and it has been heavily supply constrained.

- WiiU is much weaker than Wii and if you read my ending note, I am estimating rather the low end of the given range (around 25 million or so), which is about 12%. Nintendo never did worse than that. Also price cuts will come, along with many AAA Nintendo titles. It will be the cheapest console all along.