Nothing seems like it will move hardware like Mario Odyssey in 2017, Smash in 2018, or Pokemon Sword/Shield in 2019 though. 

I somehow completely forgot about that when typing this, damn. XD Guess what we see is what we get for the rest of the year's lineup then, at least first party wise.

I dunno, Mario Aces was just alright (played the Demo), but Mario Golf looks really good, plus much larger install base at launch. Could definitely see it hitting 5 million. Could be wrong though.

MHS2 is obviously a smaller selling series than MH, but MHR is gonna sell over 10 million, so saying Stories isn't as big as the mainline games doesn't mean it won't sell 5 million. Maybe it won't, I literally know nothing about MHS2, but it looks good and I could see it hitting 5 million compared to MHR's 10+ million. Even if it is just 4 million that's another solid multi-million selling game the second half of this year.

If SS sells more than I said then that's cool, that replaces one of the above games in my list if you are right about those!

I don't think SM3DW is gonna sell 20 million. I expect we'll get a Switch 2D Mario at some point (obviously) and maybe another 3D Mario. I expect 3DW to get to 15 million though. Anyway Pokemon D/P remake should also be in the 15-20 million range, so that's at least two games from this year in that range, and MHR and Mario Party will end up in the 10-15 million range.

Anyway, my post was about second half of the year looking good for sales, I don't really care whether my guesses for exact sales of specific games are right or not.

So true...well, if you add in AC in there obviously, cuz that was like the ultimate system seller.

But at this point Switch doesn't really need "system sellers" that give boosts to the sales. It's got a 400k-500k weekly global baseline. It just needs to steadily continue to pump out a good library, with a few mega-selling first party games each year, and eventually drop that upgraded model, and some time after that start throwing out discounts and Switch will be good to go for another 4-5 years if Nintendo chooses to take advantage of its success for that long. Between the insane baseline and the chip shortage I doubt Nintendo could even handle a system seller game that drastically increased sales for a time above that baseline haha.

I think SS, Mario Golf, Metroid, Warioware, Mario Party, Pokemon remake, a handful of other games they announced, and maybe an unannounced game or two the rest of this year is plenty (though I was absolutely hoping for either WW/TP pack or BotW2 this year).

Does anybody else want to see Nintendo go for three near-30 million calendar years in a row?? They're gonna have two after this year. If new model isn't until next year, in 2022 we already know they have mega selling bombs Pokemon Legends, BotW2, Splatoon 3, add in the new model, plus no doubt a few smaller games, and then let's say they drop a 2D Mario in for the holidays....maybe we'll get three years in a row at like 28mil, 29/30mil, 27mil!

It definitely doesn't need them as much as a young system that's still establishing itself, and its evergreen catalogue will keep it from nosediving, but I still can't help but be concerned that if it goes too long without anything big to bring in new buyers that it's pace could slow.

Man replaying Super Metroid... I already thought the game was "great" but boy does it really *click* when you know the games techniques. I only learned mockball and wall jumping, and already you can customize the order of the game how you want. It's super cool, and its funny because I think playing the base game normally is fine, but makes some other Metroids stick out as a little better. But knowing any sequence breaking really opens up the game. I never thought I'd like it so much because Zero Mission is basically pre-made for sequence breaking, whereas Super Metroid has a lot of unintended breaks (i know wall jump is intended but I mean stuff like mockball). That sort of intimidated me and made me not want to learn the techniques. But truthfully they aren't so bad and are very fun. Now to learn the green gate glitch, I can't get that one down!

Welp, Switch had a 10+ million seller come out in February, another one come out in March, another one coming in October, another one coming in November, another one coming in January. The post-AC period in 2020, along with 2018 before the holiday season, were the periods of big drought of major sellers. No such drought of huge selling games in 2021 or 2022, not sure what you're worried about. Switch has several mega selling games coming out each year, has supposedly a new model coming out at some point in let's say the next 12 months, and has plenty of 3-5+ million selling games coming out as well, on top of the fact that Switch is, other than the DS, the hottest thing in the history of the video game industry right now, and as a fall back they could always introduce their first price cut during year 6 of it's lifecycle if Pokemon, Zelda, Splatoon, Metroid, Mario Party, a slew of other new games, and a new model doesn't entice people to buy by far the hottest thing in gaming.

Personally I'm not thinking about sales falling off, I'm wondering if they are gonna hold Switch sales above 25 million three years in a row!

I agree on 2018 and 2020, I just can't see any of the games left for 2021 really shifting hardware to those who don't already own a Switch, they're more for the already converted. Mario Party and Pokemon D/P are old game content remastered, from franchises already established on Switch, Metroid and Shin Megami Tensei V are more hardcore niche affairs.

Not that I think sales will fall of a cliff or be in any way bad, it'll probably still pass 25 million, but I think hopes that this year could reach the big 30 are gone.

I am not sure if we truly understand why the Switch is selling so well.  It obviously wasn't the big titles that were released in 2017, 2018 or 2019 and I am not convinced that giving Animal Crossing the lion-share of the credit is correct either.  My view is that it was the lock-down and the general fear that was put into society over the past year that primarily caused the spike.  When people are afraid, their psyche and desires naturally regress into a more child-like and innocent state.  It's also that case that people yearn for simpler times that exist in their memories.  Nintendo's brand makes it a major beneficiary of both of these behaviors, especially among millennials and younger Gen X'ers. 

In my case, I have recently experienced a strong desire to rekindle my childhood of the 90's when, in my opinion, life was 100x better than it is now.  That is what prompted me to dust off my N64 and start working on an adapter that lets me insert a raspberry Pi into the cart slot.  I suspect that a lot of people started having the same experience (albeit perhaps on a more subconscious level than with me) and that is what provoked the massive spike in Switch sales.

The real question for Nintendo Switch sales is whether the lockdown is coming to an end and life will return to the way it was in 2019.  If that occurs, then Switch sales will likely go back to what we were seeing in 2019.  If things get locked down again in the fall, then all bets are off on this.

My opinion is that while they did help, the lockdowns are not the primary reason for Switch's high sales. Animal Crossing was a contributing factor too, though again certainly not the only one. I feel like it was a combination of many things; households buying multiple Switches where they might just buy one dedicated console, its evergreen catalogue growing continuously stronger, people who could only find a Lite during the 2020 shortages upgrading to the hybrid as it becomes available, the same FOMO that's driving PS5/XS sales, very positive word of mouth, etc.

If we compare 7th generation against 8th generation minus Switch we would see a severe decrease of console sales. PSP destroyed Vita, DS destroyed 3DS, Xbox 360 destroyed One and Wii destroyed Wii U. PS4 was the only with an improvent over its predecessor

It's strange for a market growing so much on software spending (per capita) to experience such a massive decline in hardware sales in just 7 years. There was some sort of unsatisfied demand on console market and Switch is just fulling this demand

Moreso, we have a fairly high and consistent userbase for Nintendo handhelds, almost as consistent and solid as the number of loyal customers for Playstation. Until 2017 3DS was still getting support, meaning handheld customers have no reason to rush their Switch purchases. Once 3DS software pipeline started to dry it's pretty natural to just move on, and in this context Switch is absorbing all the market of half-late 3DS owners. The release for Switch Lite in 2019 was strategic in this sense, it was released close Nintendo's biggest IPs on handhelds Pokemon and Animal Crossing.

On UK 60% of Switch owners also have a PS4, and 51% have a Xbox One (December 2020 numbers). I'm inclined to believe those purchases weren't from early adopters, but rather people convinced Switch was a worth purchase after years of strong first party support, promise for continued support and a very healthy third party library that is only growing. I'm sure the turning point for the market perception about Switch qualities wasn't even 2020, it was 2019, 2 years on the market is enough for gamers make a consistent evaluation of a console, most or consoles indeed only start peaking after 2 years