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Forums - Sony Discussion - Predict PS4 Sales Every Year Going Forward

jason1637 on 25 June 2017

2017: 18m
2018: 16m
2019: 14m
2020: 10m

Afterward 9m

Total= 120m



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LethalP on 25 June 2017
Slarvax said:

2017 = 20 million

2018 = 18 million (New revision. PS4Pro Slim or Ultra or whatever + Price cut)

2019 = 16 million 

2020 = 11 million (PS5 announced/released. PS4 starts to drop off big time)

2021 = 10 million (last price cut?)

2022 = 5 million

2023 and beyond = 4 million

I don't feel like doing math for totals, but that's what I can see. The PS5 could maybe release in 2021, but I think the PS4 specs will be too outdated at 2020 so I dont know. Those also look like very big numbers, but the PS4 likes to do that.

Do we have any idea how the PS3 sold after the PS4 released?

137.4 million. It's possible, but I don't really know. The PS4 is going to be the lead platform up until the PS5 releases in 2020 so I suppose I don't see why there should be that much of a decline before then. And unlike the PS3 it will be much cheaper after the PS5 launch, probably like $149 and less in the holidays.

PS3 sold like 10 million since 2013, but it was still like $249 when the PS4 launched so it never really got cheap like the PS2 and PS1 did after their successors release. PS4 will though so expect really good post-PS5 launch sales.



zorg1000 on 25 June 2017
LethalP said:

As we know from January 1st 2017 to June 11th 2017 the PS4 has sold 7 million units (53.4m to 60.4m). That's 5 months and 11 days, it's fantastic stuff.

So It's got me thinking how it would be fun to predict when it would reach certain milestones, or what it would sell by the beginning of each year going forward. So I'll start (bear with me, first thread lol):

Sold by January 2018 = 72 million (18.6 million in 2017)

Sold by January 2019 = 88 million (16 million in 2018)

Sold by January 2020 = 103 million (15 million in 2019)

Sold by January 2021 = 113 million (10 million in 2020) (Year PS5 launches)

Sold by Jaunary 2022 = 119 million (6 million in 2021)

Sold by January 2023 = 122 million (3 million in 2022)

Sold by January 2024 = 123.7 million (1.7 million 2023) (10 years on the market)

Lifetime Sales = 125 million

Honestly I think I'm being conservative for a console that will probably sell at $149 when the PS5 releases in 2020 with frequent sales at $99.

What say the forum? Am I lowballing it or is it ludicrously optimistic?

 

I have a hard time seeing 2019 being down less than 1% from 2018.

2017, 18 million (LTD, ~72 million)

2018, 15 million (LTD, ~87 million)

2019, 11 million (LTD, ~98 million)

2020, 8 million (LTD, ~106 million) PS5 releases Fall

2021, 4 million (LTD, ~112 million)

2022 onward, 3 million (LTD, ~115 million)



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Slarvax on 25 June 2017
LethalP said:
Slarvax said:

2017 = 20 million

2018 = 18 million (New revision. PS4Pro Slim or Ultra or whatever + Price cut)

2019 = 16 million 

2020 = 11 million (PS5 announced/released. PS4 starts to drop off big time)

2021 = 10 million (last price cut?)

2022 = 5 million

2023 and beyond = 4 million

I don't feel like doing math for totals, but that's what I can see. The PS5 could maybe release in 2021, but I think the PS4 specs will be too outdated at 2020 so I dont know. Those also look like very big numbers, but the PS4 likes to do that.

Do we have any idea how the PS3 sold after the PS4 released?

137.4 million. It's possible, but I don't really know. The PS4 is going to be the lead platform up until the PS5 releases in 2020 so I suppose I don't see why there should be that much of a decline before then. And unlike the PS3 it will be much cheaper after the PS5 launch, probably like $149 and less in the holidays.

PS3 sold like 10 million since 2013, but it was still like $249 when the PS4 launched so it never really got cheap like the PS2 and PS1 did after their successors release. PS4 will though so expect really good post-PS5 launch sales.

Yeah, PS4 will have much better legs than the PS3, but since the multimedia features become more irrelevant (Smartphones, Apple TV, etc, can do all that and more), it shouldn't get that many late adopters. Emerging markets also bought the PS2 a lot because it was super easy to pirate (talking from experience), and I dont know/think the PS4 will have that same advantage. Also, Japan is a dying market for PS.

On the other hand, the PS4 has China, a bigger western market, and the potential revisions which not only extend legs but also encourages double-dipping.



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

NawaiNey on 25 June 2017

I think 2018 will be the peak year for PS4, we have huge games like God of War, Spiderman, and Red Dead Redemption in the first half of the year. RDR2 and Spiderman will sell PS4s to some super casuals, the type who don't even normally game. It'll also be $200 or less next year, and that's that spot where sales can really take off.



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LethalP on 25 June 2017
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

As we know from January 1st 2017 to June 11th 2017 the PS4 has sold 7 million units (53.4m to 60.4m). That's 5 months and 11 days, it's fantastic stuff.

So It's got me thinking how it would be fun to predict when it would reach certain milestones, or what it would sell by the beginning of each year going forward. So I'll start (bear with me, first thread lol):

Sold by January 2018 = 72 million (18.6 million in 2017)

Sold by January 2019 = 88 million (16 million in 2018)

Sold by January 2020 = 103 million (15 million in 2019)

Sold by January 2021 = 113 million (10 million in 2020) (Year PS5 launches)

Sold by Jaunary 2022 = 119 million (6 million in 2021)

Sold by January 2023 = 122 million (3 million in 2022)

Sold by January 2024 = 123.7 million (1.7 million 2023) (10 years on the market)

Lifetime Sales = 125 million

Honestly I think I'm being conservative for a console that will probably sell at $149 when the PS5 releases in 2020 with frequent sales at $99.

What say the forum? Am I lowballing it or is it ludicrously optimistic?

 

I have a hard time seeing 2019 being down less than 1% from 2018.

2017, 18 million (LTD, ~72 million)

2018, 15 million (LTD, ~87 million)

2019, 11 million (LTD, ~98 million)

2020, 8 million (LTD, ~106 million) PS5 releases Fall

2021, 4 million (LTD, ~112 million)

2022 onward, 3 million (LTD, ~115 million)

I look at it like this, according to VGChartz the PS3 sold 13.8 million units in 2010 (It's 4th year like 2017 is to the PS4). In 2011 it sold 14.7 million units so it was up quite a bit. What if PS4 does the same in 2018? It's actually more likely it follows gen 7's sales trends than gen 6's after all.

2012 for PS3 saw a decline but it did sell over 12 million, and it was more expensive than what the PS4 is right now even in it's 6th year. I dunno, I just don't see PS4's sales trends falling below the PS3's, especially when you take into account price cuts to what could be likely $199 or below by then. I actually think my OP estimates are conservative, from 2017 to 2020.



zorg1000 on 25 June 2017
LethalP said:
zorg1000 said:

I have a hard time seeing 2019 being down less than 1% from 2018.

2017, 18 million (LTD, ~72 million)

2018, 15 million (LTD, ~87 million)

2019, 11 million (LTD, ~98 million)

2020, 8 million (LTD, ~106 million) PS5 releases Fall

2021, 4 million (LTD, ~112 million)

2022 onward, 3 million (LTD, ~115 million)

I look at it like this, according to VGChartz the PS3 sold 13.8 million units in 2010 (It's 4th year like 2017 is to the PS4). In 2011 it sold 14.7 million units so it was up quite a bit. What if PS4 does the same in 2018? It's actually more likely it follows gen 7's sales trends than gen 6's after all.

2012 for PS3 saw a decline but it did sell over 12 million, and it was more expensive than what the PS4 is right now even in it's 6th year. I dunno, I just don't see PS4's sales trends falling below the PS3's, especially when you take into account price cuts to what could be likely $199 or below by then. I actually think my OP estimates are conservative, from 2017 to 2020.

no, PS3 had a very slow start while PS4 had a record start so using PS3 to base your sales curve on is a really bad idea.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Keybladewielder on 25 June 2017

Okay...
2017 - 17m/Total: 71 m
2018 - 16m/87m
2019 - 13m/100m
2020 - 8m/108m - PS5 release year
2021 - 4m/112m
2022 and later: 2m/114m



LethalP on 25 June 2017
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

I look at it like this, according to VGChartz the PS3 sold 13.8 million units in 2010 (It's 4th year like 2017 is to the PS4). In 2011 it sold 14.7 million units so it was up quite a bit. What if PS4 does the same in 2018? It's actually more likely it follows gen 7's sales trends than gen 6's after all.

2012 for PS3 saw a decline but it did sell over 12 million, and it was more expensive than what the PS4 is right now even in it's 6th year. I dunno, I just don't see PS4's sales trends falling below the PS3's, especially when you take into account price cuts to what could be likely $199 or below by then. I actually think my OP estimates are conservative, from 2017 to 2020.

no, PS3 had a very slow start while PS4 had a record start so using PS3 to base your sales curve on is a really bad idea.

And why did it have such a comeback? Because it dropped to $299. In the same time frame PS4 should be $100 cheaper and of course have more dominant momentum to boot. We'll see though. I just don't see people suddenly buying drastically less PS4's when there's nothing else of any note to really take it's place. Since the X1 isn't picking up that momentum any time soon.



LethalP on 25 June 2017
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

I look at it like this, according to VGChartz the PS3 sold 13.8 million units in 2010 (It's 4th year like 2017 is to the PS4). In 2011 it sold 14.7 million units so it was up quite a bit. What if PS4 does the same in 2018? It's actually more likely it follows gen 7's sales trends than gen 6's after all.

2012 for PS3 saw a decline but it did sell over 12 million, and it was more expensive than what the PS4 is right now even in it's 6th year. I dunno, I just don't see PS4's sales trends falling below the PS3's, especially when you take into account price cuts to what could be likely $199 or below by then. I actually think my OP estimates are conservative, from 2017 to 2020.

no, PS3 had a very slow start while PS4 had a record start so using PS3 to base your sales curve on is a really bad idea.

And why did it have such a comeback? Because it dropped to $299. In the same time frame PS4 should be $100 cheaper and of course have more dominant momentum to boot. We'll see though. I just don't see people suddenly buying drastically less PS4's when there's nothing else of any note to really take it's place. Since the X1 isn't picking up that momentum any time soon.