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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Kept up with Combined PS3/360 Sales for 3 Years!

VideoGameAccountant said:
Train wreck said:

3rd party Japanese developers had plenty of opportunities to "jump ship" with better selling Nintendo hardware (Wii over PS3, DS over PSP, 3DS over Vita) but the Switch is going to be that system to initiate that change...gotcha.

Nintendo handhelds have always gotten a ton of Japanese support. In the handheld market, Sony lost the support of Japanese developers to Nintendo (Monster Hunter started on PSP for example). Now that the handheld is now a console, I don't think its unreasonable to think Nintendo could take console development from Sony just as they took handheld development away from them.

What Sony lost to Nintendo (really only Monster Hunter) in the handheld space they gained in new IPs late in the PSP and all through the Vita's life cycle...the IP didn't drive sales for the likes of Vita but development continued on the Vita despite higher selling nintendo hardware.  Again thats not changing, even with the Switch's popularity.

Sony as a whole has had and will continue to have 3rd party Japanese support, there won't be a scenario where it won't, even without a portable in Japan.  You saw many 3rd party developers go from a Vita only titles early in the Vita's lifecycle to Vita/PS4 late in the Vita's life cycle, they saw its end coming.  The transition that will likely happen is that itll be a Switch/PS4 versions of their games.  



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VideoGameAccountant said:
Lawlight said:

Very good post. If Sony decides to kill the PS4 after the PS5 like they did with the PS3, then 100M will be harder to reach but it will still reach it. If not, I think we're looking at 110M.

One thing to note is Switch puts a bit wrench into everything. It has come out in the middle of the PS4's life cycle and may take Japanese development away from Sony (as Switch sales in Japan are much stronger). Sony could transition sooner than they otherwise would off. Of course, this is pure speculation on my part. 

You talk about Nintendo taking this and that, but so far it's PS4 taking things away from Nintendo. A new Monster Hunter which is essentially MH5, and then of course DQ11 which is developed first on PS4. Sony got the 2 biggest brands away from them.

The Switch's 3rd party support will mostly only consist of Japanese games and these will also come to PS4. The Switch will be what Vita was to PS4, PS4 will always get the ports.

PS4 is already outselling the Switch in America and in Europe Sonyland things wouldn't be different. The Switch isn't eating into PS4s sales, it's more like the successor to the 3DS, Nintendo has their own market, both can sell well.

Lawlight said:
ZhugeEX said:

I think it'll reach the 100m mark through the initiatives that we know of. 

Price drops, push into new / growing markets, new game software, online growth, playlink etc...

To give a final LTD number for PS4 is a lot harder because it depends a lot on when 'next gen' starts and also how Sony handle the transition. 

 

Besides, what's more important is how engaged users are on PS4 both in regards to time and spend. PS4 is already the market leader when it comes to hardware. Now it's time to see how software and network sales continue to grow. 

Very good post. If Sony decides to kill the PS4 after the PS5 like they did with the PS3, then 100M will be harder to reach but it will still reach it. If not, I think we're looking at 110M.

The PS4 is on track selling 100M in time for its 6th anniversary. It could sell another 10M by its 7th anniversary (and beyond), at which time the PS5 would come out (fall 2020).

PS4 isn't gonna lose steam anytime soon, they're up YoY this year thanks to the exclusives barrage in spring and soon the big 3rd parties will come out which they've the marketing to. 2018 doesn't look too different, solid 1st party output and the behemoth RDR2. 2019 will have TLOU2, Death Stranding and likely FF7R or KH3 finally coming out. PS4 could be the top selling console until 2020.

I predict its final LTD to be between 105-115M. They have this gen locked.



foodfather said:
It's hard to grasp how well it's done as well as this generation in general. This gen has been awful to me and 3 yrs in I thought the PS3 had just as manly notable games as the PS4 thus far. Why it's done so well os beyond me. I can't believe bland games like Destiny, Watch Dogs and Ghost Recon Wildlands have done better than franchises from last gen. Last gen was way better. It's disappointing that this gen has done so well for Sony and multiplatform companies. Rant over.

Exclusives. I know some people don't want to buy that, but yes, they do matter.  And you may not like those 3rd party games, but there are plenty that do.



Turkish said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

One thing to note is Switch puts a bit wrench into everything. It has come out in the middle of the PS4's life cycle and may take Japanese development away from Sony (as Switch sales in Japan are much stronger). Sony could transition sooner than they otherwise would off. Of course, this is pure speculation on my part. 

You talk about Nintendo taking this and that, but so far it's PS4 taking things away from Nintendo. A new Monster Hunter which is essentially MH5, and then of course DQ11 which is developed first on PS4. Sony got the 2 biggest brands away from them.

The Switch's 3rd party support will mostly only consist of Japanese games and these will also come to PS4. The Switch will be what Vita was to PS4, PS4 will always get the ports.

PS4 is already outselling the Switch in America and in Europe Sonyland things wouldn't be different. The Switch isn't eating into PS4s sales, it's more like the successor to the 3DS, Nintendo has their own market, both can sell well.

The bold is a misunderstanding of the NPD data. If you look at May NPD numbers, hardware sales increased by 9 million (7 percent) from $138M to $147M and the NPD analyst said that was due to the Switch. If you take 9 million and divide it by the Switch's $300 price tag, the extra 9 million would only be 30,000 Switch units. The systems sell ~22K-24K a week in Japan. Japan made up about 20 percent of Switch sales as of March 31, 2017. The US was about 48 percent (but we'll say 40 for the sake of argument). If we assume 22K a week for 4 weeks that's 88K. Divide 88K by 20% gets you 440K. Times this by 40% gets you 176K. Times $300 that's $52.8 million. Subtract this from the $147 million and we get $94.2 million for the month of May without Switch sales. This would represent a 30 percent decline in 2017. Now, Wii U sales will be down in 2017 but they weren't stellar in 2016, and the 3DS should sell about the same based on Nintendo's projections. Nevertheless, If you take this into consideration, this means sales of PS4 and XBox One are down significantly from 2016. In other words, PS4 didn't beat Switch because it sold so much. It won because Switch was supply constrained. This is also consistent with the 20 percent decline in software sales for the month. Any way you slice it, PS4 is on the way down in the US. 

In Japan, the Switch doubles PS4 sales every week. Europe is really the only bastion of the system as others in this thread have pointed out. And Switch is doing well there too. In April, VGChartz had the Switch winning each week towards the end of the month. 

And this goes with what you said above. The difference is you are talking about the presence. I'm talking about the future. Could Nintendo take these series back? Probably. DQ is coming to the Switch. MH was ported to the Switch and the next one will be on Switch as the system is selling a ton in Japan. Japan has been handheld focused since Generation 7. With the Switch being a hybrid, its not unreasonable to think it could get both console and handheld development. You aren't going to see it right now because the Switch isn't even a year old and development takes a few years. But again, I'm talking about the future. My point was Sony may respond if development for PS4 moves to Nintendo Switch. They don't seem to be doing anything different in 2017 based on their E3 presentation. We are in Year 4 of the PS4. Systems generally last 5-6 years. Sony could move to make a new system very soon.



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foodfather said:
It's hard to grasp how well it's done as well as this generation in general. This gen has been awful to me and 3 yrs in I thought the PS3 had just as manly notable games as the PS4 thus far. Why it's done so well os beyond me. I can't believe bland games like Destiny, Watch Dogs and Ghost Recon Wildlands have done better than franchises from last gen. Last gen was way better. It's disappointing that this gen has done so well for Sony and multiplatform companies. Rant over.

Because Sony have clowned MS at every turn with more and better games. And the brand power of Playstation is just much greater than Xbox. But yeah, this gen is yet to get it's Mass Effect or Assassin's Creed, though Anthem might fill the former void.

But overall, I'll put it like this:

Witcher 3 > Witcher 2
Fallout 4 > Fallout 3
MGSV > MGSIV
Uncharted 4 > Uncharted 2
Horizon > Killzone 2

Also Japanese output is way better this gen.

Just because MS has being tripping shit this gen doesn't mean the whole gen is bad. It just needs more notable releases.



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VideoGameAccountant said:
Turkish said:

You talk about Nintendo taking this and that, but so far it's PS4 taking things away from Nintendo. A new Monster Hunter which is essentially MH5, and then of course DQ11 which is developed first on PS4. Sony got the 2 biggest brands away from them.

The Switch's 3rd party support will mostly only consist of Japanese games and these will also come to PS4. The Switch will be what Vita was to PS4, PS4 will always get the ports.

PS4 is already outselling the Switch in America and in Europe Sonyland things wouldn't be different. The Switch isn't eating into PS4s sales, it's more like the successor to the 3DS, Nintendo has their own market, both can sell well.

The bold is a misunderstanding of the NPD data. If you look at May NPD numbers, hardware sales increased by 9 million (7 percent) from $138M to $147M and the NPD analyst said that was due to the Switch. If you take 9 million and divide it by the Switch's $300 price tag, the extra 9 million would only be 30,000 Switch units. The systems sell ~22K-24K a week in Japan. Japan made up about 20 percent of Switch sales as of March 31, 2017. The US was about 48 percent (but we'll say 40 for the sake of argument). If we assume 22K a week for 4 weeks that's 88K. Divide 88K by 20% gets you 440K. Times this by 40% gets you 176K. Times $300 that's $52.8 million. Subtract this from the $147 million and we get $94.2 million for the month of May without Switch sales. This would represent a 30 percent decline in 2017. Now, Wii U sales will be down in 2017 but they weren't stellar in 2016, and the 3DS should sell about the same based on Nintendo's projections. Nevertheless, If you take this into consideration, this means sales of PS4 and XBox One are down significantly from 2016. In other words, PS4 didn't beat Switch because it sold so much. It won because Switch was supply constrained. This is also consistent with the 20 percent decline in software sales for the month. Any way you slice it, PS4 is on the way down in the US. 

In Japan, the Switch doubles PS4 sales every week. Europe is really the only bastion of the system as others in this thread have pointed out. And Switch is doing well there too. In April, VGChartz had the Switch winning each week towards the end of the month. 

And this goes with what you said above. The difference is you are talking about the presence. I'm talking about the future. Could Nintendo take these series back? Probably. DQ is coming to the Switch. MH was ported to the Switch and the next one will be on Switch as the system is selling a ton in Japan. Japan has been handheld focused since Generation 7. With the Switch being a hybrid, its not unreasonable to think it could get both console and handheld development. You aren't going to see it right now because the Switch isn't even a year old and development takes a few years. But again, I'm talking about the future. My point was Sony may respond if development for PS4 moves to Nintendo Switch. They don't seem to be doing anything different in 2017 based on their E3 presentation. We are in Year 4 of the PS4. Systems generally last 5-6 years. Sony could move to make a new system very soon.

PS4 was the number 1 selling console in America in May, what are you talking about?

And PS4 is not down, it's UP!

Lmao at the yuuge wall of number crunching and "anyway you slice it", you were so sure man!

Also LOL at the lie of Switch doubling PS4 sales in Japan every week, that hasn't been the case last week and the weeks before it http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1391465

and it isn't even the case this week with Arms. Japan is an insignificant market anyway for Sony. You need to travel more, the world is bigger than America, Yurop and Japan. Sony is dominating in the entire globe, on top of dominating America and Yurop. Japan is insignificant for them.

Why are you claiming things that are not true?

And what does PS4 development moving to Switch even mean, Western 3rd parties have already abandoned the system and things aren't much better in Japan. No DBZ Fighterz, no Ace Combat 7, no Ninokuni 2, no MH World. What the Switch is gonna get are lower budget games which aren't graphically demanding, like the Vita ones, and they will all come to PS4 unless Nintendo pays for it. Like I said, Switch will be the PS4's second Vita.



Sony is the GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I still wont buy one. Hopefully MS keeps trying and never leaves the market otherwise I'd have to quit gaming forever... Well i'd still game on my phone. Clash Royal baby!!!



S.T.A.G.E. said:
xl-klaudkil said:

Did they kill the ps3 after  ps4 launched? 

Didn't  sony still release a couple  of games that people  really  complaint  about  it should  be on ps4?

 

Nintendo  en Microsoft  killed  there systems heck Nintendo  killed  the wiiu sooner then sony  killed vita.

 

I hate it when people  don't  know there  shit.

 

Ow i predicted  years ago ps4 will sell about  110-130 mill when everything  is said and done and damn i remember  noo one believed me because  " consoles  are dying "

Yep. You're right.... and You're right about those projected numbers. I'm expecting 110 like lawlight.  A healthy Sony and an innovative nintnedo expand the gaming market. 'Microsoft has done little for the industry except for fight over halving sonys previous market share. They don't really add to it at all.

Serious question. Do you just hate Microsoft or what? 



Turkish said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

The bold is a misunderstanding of the NPD data. If you look at May NPD numbers, hardware sales increased by 9 million (7 percent) from $138M to $147M and the NPD analyst said that was due to the Switch. If you take 9 million and divide it by the Switch's $300 price tag, the extra 9 million would only be 30,000 Switch units. The systems sell ~22K-24K a week in Japan. Japan made up about 20 percent of Switch sales as of March 31, 2017. The US was about 48 percent (but we'll say 40 for the sake of argument). If we assume 22K a week for 4 weeks that's 88K. Divide 88K by 20% gets you 440K. Times this by 40% gets you 176K. Times $300 that's $52.8 million. Subtract this from the $147 million and we get $94.2 million for the month of May without Switch sales. This would represent a 30 percent decline in 2017. Now, Wii U sales will be down in 2017 but they weren't stellar in 2016, and the 3DS should sell about the same based on Nintendo's projections. Nevertheless, If you take this into consideration, this means sales of PS4 and XBox One are down significantly from 2016. In other words, PS4 didn't beat Switch because it sold so much. It won because Switch was supply constrained. This is also consistent with the 20 percent decline in software sales for the month. Any way you slice it, PS4 is on the way down in the US. 

In Japan, the Switch doubles PS4 sales every week. Europe is really the only bastion of the system as others in this thread have pointed out. And Switch is doing well there too. In April, VGChartz had the Switch winning each week towards the end of the month. 

And this goes with what you said above. The difference is you are talking about the presence. I'm talking about the future. Could Nintendo take these series back? Probably. DQ is coming to the Switch. MH was ported to the Switch and the next one will be on Switch as the system is selling a ton in Japan. Japan has been handheld focused since Generation 7. With the Switch being a hybrid, its not unreasonable to think it could get both console and handheld development. You aren't going to see it right now because the Switch isn't even a year old and development takes a few years. But again, I'm talking about the future. My point was Sony may respond if development for PS4 moves to Nintendo Switch. They don't seem to be doing anything different in 2017 based on their E3 presentation. We are in Year 4 of the PS4. Systems generally last 5-6 years. Sony could move to make a new system very soon.

PS4 was the number 1 selling console in America in May, what are you talking about?

And PS4 is not down, it's UP!

Lmao at the yuuge wall of number crunching and "anyway you slice it", you were so sure man!

Also LOL at the lie of Switch doubling PS4 sales in Japan every week, that hasn't been the case last week and the weeks before it http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1391465

and it isn't even the case this week with Arms. Japan is an insignificant market anyway for Sony. You need to travel more, the world is bigger than America, Yurop and Japan. Sony is dominating in the entire globe, on top of dominating America and Yurop. Japan is insignificant for them.

Why are you claiming things that are not true?

And what does PS4 development moving to Switch even mean, Western 3rd parties have already abandoned the system and things aren't much better in Japan. No DBZ Fighterz, no Ace Combat 7, no Ninokuni 2, no MH World. What the Switch is gonna get are lower budget games which aren't graphically demanding, like the Vita ones, and they will all come to PS4 unless Nintendo pays for it. Like I said, Switch will be the PS4's second Vita.

I don't think you read anything I said

  • I didn't say PS4 didn't win May, what I said was that it was down from May 2016. The increase in hardware is due to the Nintendo Switch (NPD Analyst specifically said that) and it was an increase of only $9 million(and I doubt Switch only sold 30,000 units for the whole month). Simple math tells you that if you exclude the Switch, hardware sales are down. Since every system is selling poorly except the 3DS and the PS4, and the 3DS will likely sell about the same as the prior year given Nintendo's projections, then PS4 is down. Its simple math.
  • You'll have to give me a link to that chart because all I've seen NPD release about PS4 from May was that PS4+XBox One is up vs PS3+XBox 360 (which, BTW, was during the Great Recession)
  • Here is the link to Media Create sales: http://gematsu.com/tag/media-create-sales. If you look, Switch doubles PS4 sales, so I'm not sure what you're going on about. It varies between week because Switch sales are dependent on the supply of units where PS4 always sells 12-14K with little variation. If you actually look at it, Switch double PS4 every week in May. Also, I think you should check again because Switch doubled PS4 the week of the 12th (http://gematsu.com/2017/06/media-create-sales-61217-61817) EDIT: Missed Pro sales. They are pretty minute (only 4-5K), but technically, it would be less than doubling. So let's say 1.5 times and split the difference.
I find it funny you said "Why are you claiming things that aren't true," when you actually said things that aren't true ("and it isn't even the case this week with Arms", Switch sold 37K vs 18K which is doubling)
But again, you can't look at the future. You say "It doesn't have these games," but you forget the system has been out for 4 months and games take 2-3 years to makes. The reason I say Japanese developers will move to the Switch because its selling out worldwide. Before, developers didn't see a reason to port over software or didn't see much in the system. Now it sells out every week in Japan and the US. Stores can't keep any inventory. Why do you think Monster Hunter XX was ported to Switch in Japan? Capcom had to rush something out since its doing so well. Where do you think the next Monster Hunter will be? On Switch. As these projects finish, you will see developers move to the Switch.
Gematsu reports that Arms has sold 100,652 units in its first week and seems to have had a knock-on-effect on Switch sales, which rose from 27,291 to 37,709 in the same week.

The game’s impressive sales dwarfs Tekken 7’s debut week numbers of 58,736, and it’s already beaten the fighter’s lifetime sales figure of 76,603. Arms also sold double the units that Street Fighter 5 managed in it’s first week – 46,836 – making it one of the biggest fighting games in years.

What do you think Capcom and Namco think when they see these figures? Companies are going to be looking at the Switch more seriously for their games and will be reluctant to sign exclusivity deals for PS4 exclusives. PS4's life is coming to an end. It's going to have to start thinking about making a new system, especially as the market is moving away from it in the US and Japan. Despite what a lot of fans think, the PS4 was not as successful at launch as the Switch is now.  So what does Sony do? Do they try and get something out there so they can snag development for their system, or do they sit back and hope that their consumers don't get absorbed by the growing PC market. This is why I said at the outset that Sony releasing a new system is going to be influenced by the Switch. If it wasn't a roaring success, Sony could have ignored it. Now, it will be hard to as Nintendo begins to absorb the downmarket and PC absorbs the upmarket. 


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VideoGameAccountant said:
Turkish said:

PS4 was the number 1 selling console in America in May, what are you talking about?

And PS4 is not down, it's UP!

Lmao at the yuuge wall of number crunching and "anyway you slice it", you were so sure man!

Also LOL at the lie of Switch doubling PS4 sales in Japan every week, that hasn't been the case last week and the weeks before it http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1391465

and it isn't even the case this week with Arms. Japan is an insignificant market anyway for Sony. You need to travel more, the world is bigger than America, Yurop and Japan. Sony is dominating in the entire globe, on top of dominating America and Yurop. Japan is insignificant for them.

Why are you claiming things that are not true?

And what does PS4 development moving to Switch even mean, Western 3rd parties have already abandoned the system and things aren't much better in Japan. No DBZ Fighterz, no Ace Combat 7, no Ninokuni 2, no MH World. What the Switch is gonna get are lower budget games which aren't graphically demanding, like the Vita ones, and they will all come to PS4 unless Nintendo pays for it. Like I said, Switch will be the PS4's second Vita.

I don't think you read anything I said

  • I didn't say PS4 didn't win May, what I said was that it was down from May 2016. The increase in hardware is due to the Nintendo Switch (NPD Analyst specifically said that) and it was an increase of only $9 million(and I doubt Switch only sold 30,000 units for the whole month). Simple math tells you that if you exclude the Switch, hardware sales are down. Since every system is selling poorly except the 3DS and the PS4, and the 3DS will likely sell about the same as the prior year given Nintendo's projections, then PS4 is down. Its simple math.
  • You'll have to give me a link to that chart because all I've seen NPD release about PS4 from May was that PS4+XBox One is up vs PS3+XBox 360 (which, BTW, was during the Great Recession)
  • Here is the link to Media Create sales: http://gematsu.com/tag/media-create-sales. If you look, Switch doubles PS4 sales, so I'm not sure what you're going on about. It varies between week because Switch sales are dependent on the supply of units where PS4 always sells 12-14K with little variation. If you actually look at it, Switch double PS4 every week in May. Also, I think you should check again because Switch doubled PS4 the week of the 12th (http://gematsu.com/2017/06/media-create-sales-61217-61817) EDIT: Missed Pro sales. They are pretty minute (only 4-5K), but technically, it would be less than doubling. So let's say 1.5 times and split the difference.
I find it funny you said "Why are you claiming things that aren't true," when you actually said things that aren't true ("and it isn't even the case this week with Arms", Switch sold 37K vs 18K which is doubling)
But again, you can't look at the future. You say "It doesn't have these games," but you forget the system has been out for 4 months and games take 2-3 years to makes. The reason I say Japanese developers will move to the Switch because its selling out worldwide. Before, developers didn't see a reason to port over software or didn't see much in the system. Now it sells out every week in Japan and the US. Stores can't keep any inventory. Why do you think Monster Hunter XX was ported to Switch in Japan? Capcom had to rush something out since its doing so well. Where do you think the next Monster Hunter will be? On Switch. As these projects finish, you will see developers move to the Switch.
Gematsu reports that Arms has sold 100,652 units in its first week and seems to have had a knock-on-effect on Switch sales, which rose from 27,291 to 37,709 in the same week.

The game’s impressive sales dwarfs Tekken 7’s debut week numbers of 58,736, and it’s already beaten the fighter’s lifetime sales figure of 76,603. Arms also sold double the units that Street Fighter 5 managed in it’s first week – 46,836 – making it one of the biggest fighting games in years.

What do you think Capcom and Namco think when they see these figures? Companies are going to be looking at the Switch more seriously for their games and will be reluctant to sign exclusivity deals for PS4 exclusives. PS4's life is coming to an end. It's going to have to start thinking about making a new system, especially as the market is moving away from it in the US and Japan. Despite what a lot of fans think, the PS4 was not as successful at launch as the Switch is now.  So what does Sony do? Do they try and get something out there so they can snag development for their system, or do they sit back and hope that their consumers don't get absorbed by the growing PC market. This is why I said at the outset that Sony releasing a new system is going to be influenced by the Switch. If it wasn't a roaring success, Sony could have ignored it. Now, it will be hard to as Nintendo begins to absorb the downmarket and PC absorbs the upmarket. 

You said that "PS4 outselling the Switch in America" is a misunderstanding (which it isn't) and you spend an entire paragraph hilariously trying to prove how Switch actually won, which was pointless as we already know who won. It's a fact that PS4 outsold the Switch in May. PS4 was the number 1 console, it outsold the 3DS last year and this year. All other consoles and handhelds may be down, but not the PS4. Simple math.


37k is not double 24k, do you know how math works? And you said it doubles PS4 sales every week, looking at sales of past weeks quickly disproves your claim, you really shouldn't be lying and be disingenuous about something that can be checked so easily. Lol at excluding PS4 Pro sales to fit your agenda. Anyway like I said, Japan is an insignificant market for Sony, Playstation is a global brand, it doesn't depend on 2-3 markets like MS and Nintendo do.

"Companies are going to be looking at the Switch more seriously "

 By not making games for it? Like I said, Switch will pick up all the budget tier developers of the Vita and also release their game on PS4. Big games like MH World are just not possible on the system. Devs are very happy on PS4 and especially with Japanese sales overseas this gen, they're not gonna abandon it for an unproven platform with inferior hardware.

"PS4's life is coming to an end"

PS4 hasn't even peaked yet son it's just hitting its stride. PS4 is Zeus mode now, how u expect these mortals to challenge it.

You really seem to wish so hard that Switch will be replacement of the PS4, that it's gonna be abandoned soon, why cant you just be happy about the Switch without wishing ill upon the industry leader?