Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, and Splatoon 2 will all pass 10 million

What do you think?

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Go home curl, you're drunk. Mario will probably reach this number. But thta's it. No other Zelda ever sold more than 7M something, and if you count for BOTW also the WiiU-number (reasonable), than you can compare with TP in similar situation, that sold 8.something M. BOTW might go better, but 10 million as a first for the series is a big stretch. For Splatoon it is even more unlikely. While I think the sequel can grow, doubling the number of the predecessor is way too much.

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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Bet with platformmaster918 and ethomaz about PS3 overtaking Wii in total sales.

Predictions: Switch / Switch / Switch / MHWorld

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Mnementh said:
Go home curl, you're drunk. Mario will probably reach this number. But thta's it. No other Zelda ever sold more than 7M something, and if you count for BOTW also the WiiU-number (reasonable), than you can compare with TP in similar situation, that sold 8.something M. BOTW might go better, but 10 million as a first for the series is a big stretch. For Splatoon it is even more unlikely. While I think the sequel can grow, doubling the number of the predecessor is way too much.

Splatoon sold 4.88 million and lets remember it wa released MAY 2015. Wii U was basically dead in about a year. 

If Mario can hit 10 mill, Splatoon 2 can too IMO. 

Mario 3D World sold just over 5 million, but it was released November 2013, so it had an extra 1 1/2 years to sell over Splatoon and was bundled more heavily, so that tells you how impressive Splatoon is. I think Splatoon is the next great Japanese franchise too, it will be bigger than Final Fantasy, Monster Hunter, maybe even Dragon Quest soon. 



Mnementh said:
Go home curl, you're drunk. Mario will probably reach this number. But thta's it. No other Zelda ever sold more than 7M something, and if you count for BOTW also the WiiU-number (reasonable), than you can compare with TP in similar situation, that sold 8.something M. BOTW might go better, but 10 million as a first for the series is a big stretch. For Splatoon it is even more unlikely. While I think the sequel can grow, doubling the number of the predecessor is way too much.

Previous Zeldas not reaching 10 million doesn't mean Botw can't; it dramatically reinvents the series and as such has the ability to reach a broader audience than any prior entry. Pretty sure no previous Zelda did 3.8 million in its first month either.



curl-6 said:
Mnementh said:
Go home curl, you're drunk. Mario will probably reach this number. But thta's it. No other Zelda ever sold more than 7M something, and if you count for BOTW also the WiiU-number (reasonable), than you can compare with TP in similar situation, that sold 8.something M. BOTW might go better, but 10 million as a first for the series is a big stretch. For Splatoon it is even more unlikely. While I think the sequel can grow, doubling the number of the predecessor is way too much.

Previous Zeldas not reaching 10 million doesn't mean Botw can't; it dramatically reinvents the series and as such has the ability to reach a broader audience than any prior entry. Pretty sure no previous Zelda did 3.8 million in its first month either.

That it is sellign faster initially doesn't mean much, as games tend to sell more frontloaded in these times. I agree, BOTW reinvents the series a bit, but still it seems farfetched to reach 10M. A small chance there is though.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

Why you will not convince me I have chosen bad consoles. / awesome Miiverse art / my greatest games list

Bet with platformmaster918 and ethomaz about PS3 overtaking Wii in total sales.

Predictions: Switch / Switch / Switch / MHWorld

Mnementh said:
curl-6 said:

Previous Zeldas not reaching 10 million doesn't mean Botw can't; it dramatically reinvents the series and as such has the ability to reach a broader audience than any prior entry. Pretty sure no previous Zelda did 3.8 million in its first month either.

That it is sellign faster initially doesn't mean much, as games tend to sell more frontloaded in these times. I agree, BOTW reinvents the series a bit, but still it seems farfetched to reach 10M. A small chance there is though.

Twilight Princess came pretty close already, and Botw is tracking ahead of it.



I could possibly see Breath of the Wild getting there. But unless they are bundled for long periods of time with the Switch system itself, I don't see it for Splatoon 2 or even possibly Mario. Perhaps IF the Switch momentum continues for the next several years, and doesn't, let's say, peter out gradually over the next year, then I suppose Mario Odyssey could hit 10 million, as the original Mario Galaxy surpassed 11 million. New Super Mario Bros. and NSMB Wii both sold over 28 million each, but that was largely in part to the novelty at the time of actually being able to play a new 2D Mario again. In the Wii game's case, NSMBWii was the first 2D Mario to hit a home console since, technically, Super Mario World back in 1991, nearly 2 decades. The hype for the franchise had already died down considerably, when Nintendo ignorantly decided to release 3DS and Wii U iterations within mere months from each other in the same year.

In fairness, Mario 3D Land went on to eventually hit 10 million on the 3DS, which did not have its predecessors sales might. So Odyssey could do it. I'm just not going to expect it to. Considering that the "casual" market is still largely gone, on to smartphones or simply disinterested in gaming again, and considering that the Switch literally only launched a few short months ago, I think people should temper their expectations of the console's long-term sales. It may well continue selling like hotcakes for years. But personally, I feel that right now, the system is the "next big thing", the new hotness, and people want one. But that that buzz is also going to eventually die down, and a year or two from now, while perhaps steady, Switch's sales will not keep chugging along like Wii's did. I could be wrong, but that is, as of now, what I foresee happening. Nintendo could certainly assist with that, by dropping 3DS support and treating Switch like the true "One Stop Nintendo Hybrid" platform that it SHOULD be. But they don't seem to be aiming to do that, and that may well, in my opinion, come back to haunt them later on.

I only see Odessey doing that, you're drunk mate!

I can see both BOTW and SMO hitting that mark tbh, BOTW is very likely already pass the 4m mark in total sales heading to 5m and what people aren't factoring in is the added sales coming from the portable market with NS being a hybrid. Splatoon 2 is possible given the insane attach rate of the original in Japan and the positive reception in the west, I have it pegged to sell 8m LT but I wouldn't be surprised if it hit 10m given the strength of portable platforms in Japan.

I'd love for BOTW to sell 10 million, and I can definitely see SMO doing 10 million. Just can't see spat2 making it, unless Japan really get behind it so yeah....Maybe

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Not many games pass 10 million. I don't think Zelda or Splatoon have a broad enough reach for that.
Mario probably will though.