But the japanese base is on handhelds, and is about 4M big. If the expectation is these base can be transferred to home console, 4M should be expected.That basically is the main argument of people for claiming it is good it leaves out Switch: it is said the japanese users will transfer to PS4.

Yes, but I was challenging their expectation. The japanese base didn't go to Wii, and when MHP3rd was released on PSP it sold double what Tri sold worldwide in Japan alone.

The base isn't going to transfer to the PS4. Some who already own a PS4 will buy the game, and the rest will hold out for MHP5th.  

2-3M is my guess

2.5 million. Then Capcom is going to cry about how they horribly missed their sales targets. The franchise is not magically going to have 3x more fans in the US, the MH game play just isn't that appealling to Western dudebros. Sorry Capcom but you're going to find out the hard way. The Japanese gamers like the game because of portable ad-hoc mode, without that MH has always been just a 700k-1 million seller in Japan (PS2 and Wii, so don't give me the "it has never been on a successful console before" bullshit) and even to hit 1 mill on Wii, MH Tri had to be heavily discounted. 

1.5-2 million. I doubt the series is going to see a ton of growth in the west and there's no way it's going to come anywhere close to the handheld titles in Japan

Monster Hunter XX (3DS + Switch) will outsell Monster Hunter World :)

i hope it bombs as much as MHXX so capcom can learn a lesson or two, they've been milking the mh series too much in the past 3yrs with bad games like mh stories and xx.

Capcom is so delusional about all of their franchises. Instead of focusing on making the best games they can in the most efficient way possible, they get obssessed about chasing the Western market as if it is a magical moneybank. The problem is that Capcom is too cheap and lacks the talent to make the type of games that they are seeing sell tens of millions. Capcom is a Japanese company trying to emulate Western games without doing the stuff that Western studios do, like spending many tens of millions on producing the games and advertising them. 

For example, they complain about Monster Hunter not gaining success in the West, but in the past they've decided to not publish certain hit Monster Hunter games in the west, like MH3rd  on PSP, the PS3 games, and probably now MHXX for Switch/3DS. How are you going to build an audience if you don't publish the games in the West? They think that if they just change the mechanics or simplify the game people will just start buying them as much as they'd buy, say -- Skyrim. That is so naive and sad.

Yet they keep doing the same exact thing, with every one of their franchises and it keeps backfiring. It is really insane, to be honest. And the worst part was that Monster Hunter games were starting to make some gains in the West. MH4U sold 1.31 million outside of Japan. That was impressive. Monster Hunter 5 probably could've done even better, World might if it retains what makes Monster Hunter good. But it isn't going to triple its Western sales or anything. They think that Monster Hunter is an 8 million selling series or something and therefore are never satisfied, what the hell are they smoking? 

1.9 million. It's going to flop hard. Anytime Capcom westernizes a series it fails because they typically alienate the core fanbase of said series.

a couple million, maybe a little more than 2. I do not really have faith in this new type to kill it because there already are loads of open world 'kill monsters' type games. The formula that destroys for Monster Hunter is portable and LOCAL online. I am not sure this will translate that well.

I mean if Horizon Zero Dawn is at like 3 million after being out for months I'm entirely uncertain if something like Monster Hunter World will come close to that, even if on more platforms, because it is unlikely to be as widely appealing to Western audiences.

time will tell. To a stranger to the series all the trailer basically looked like was scavenging around an island with some dinosaurs and fighting them. I don't know if that's compelling enough. It also didn't look mega polished.

for it to be incredibly successful I think it needs to end up offering a lot more, we'll see