Predict When will Ps4 Outsell Wii

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thismeintiel said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

I know that's why I said it should say outship not sell since we are using shipments lol. I don't know when I see outsell I think to consumers when I see outship I think to retailers. Even thoigh I personally think the PS4 will outship and outsell the Wii.....

Well, I think it's just that when we talk about legacy consoles selling X amount, it's always based on shipments.  Though, I can see how it may be confusing when one of them is still selling.

Good point

The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

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fedfed said:



Surprising answer, totally not expected.

Barkley said:
Lenny93 said:

Playstation 4 sells will taper off in 2018. Shipped does not equal sold through. They will ship half that amount (9 million) in the 2018-2019 financial year and 5 million in the next one after that, so 92 million to be precise.

According to Wikipedia it has sold 3.4 Million by the end of June, I underestimated it a bit, it will probably exceed 4 Million when it's all said and done. But the other point in that post was to assert that BOTW would sell more, which it has, on a far smaller install base.

Yet the PS4 is selling through this year faster then it has in any other year, so shipped or sold through ps4 is doing fantastic. That you think PS4 shipments will drop by 50% next year is incredible. PS4 will ship around 14-15m units next year.

The 3.4m figure for Horizon is for the end of APRIL not June, Horizon should reach 6m no problem, games aren't so front loaded that they drop dead after 2 months.

I think the market for PS4 will reach saturation sooner than some are expecting, I could be wrong, time will tell.


"3.4 million copies had been sold by the month of June 2017 – of which, 915,000 were digital" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_Zero_Dawn#Sales

Sales prediction, PS4: 122 Million, Xbox one: 50 million, Switch: 105 million. 

The Twelfth of Never...

I think some nintendo fanboys didn't get the question. It's not "Do you want PS4 to outsell the Wii", it's when. As for Lenny, since this guy said Horizon will never do 3 million lifetime, if he said PS4 won't do 100M, you can be sure it will.

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Lenny93 said:
thismeintiel said:

I can understand the difference between the Game Boy and DS.  However, what you just typed makes it seem even more in line with the PS1 and PS2.  A gaming machine that appeals to the core and casual gamer, that has additional multimedia functions (PS1 - CDs, PS2 - DVDs, PS4 - Bluray and streaming apps) as icing on the cake.

And a few points.  When the PS1 launched, CDs had been around for 12 years.  Absolutely no one was buying the $299 PS1 for its ability to play CDs.  Players could be found for less than $50.  The myth of the PS2 as a cheap DVD player needs to just stop.  When the PS2 was launched for $299 in 2000, DVD players were available for ~$150, with some being $99 during the holiday season.  By 2003, when the PS2 was $179, players were available for less than $50.  Again, absolutely no one was buying it as a "cheap" DVD player.

I knew people that bought it as a  "cheap" DVD player, because it could do that as well as games. I doubt he meant non gamers buying it as a cheap DVD player. 

I got a DVD player well before I got a PS2. I estimate only a couple of millions of those PS2s were bought solely for their DVD playback capabilities?

Lenny93 said:

"3.4 million copies had been sold by the month of June 2017 – of which, 915,000 were digital" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_Zero_Dawn#Sales

The information was released early June, the figure given is for April 30th. Even follow the link to the source on wikipedia, at no point in the cited article does it say "as of june" it doesn't give a date.

A good example of that is the break down of sales for PS4’s Horizon Zero Dawn. As of April 30, more than 3.4 million copies of the game have been sold. Of those 915,000 were digital sales, according to PlayStation.

Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

Wiibaron said:
The Twelfth of Never...

I'm amazed you care to post in this thread, a second time, because apparently you don't care about sales.

Actually it's probably just PlayStation sales you don't care about. When Nintendo get involved you've got a job to do!

The only people saying never have a very clear preference in one direction.

Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

I have a correction to my previous assertion that PS2 were included in that 13M number for 2001 here.  PS2 and DVD-ROM drives are counted  separately so that 65% calculation is incorrect.  The correct number is in the chart below.

thismeintiel said:   According to this site, ~$200 was the actual average price of a DVD player in 2000. 

I'll be using this site which you cited for the AVERAGE PURCHASE PRICE of a DVD player per year. - http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=497


thismeintiel said:

And if that's the reasoning, what happened in 2003 when you could get a GC and DVD player for less than $150, but the PS2 was still $180?  Oh yea, the PS2 continued to dominant.  Again, a $25 difference doesn't mean squat to the average consumer and isn't going to change their mind about which console they are going to get.

You do know that the GameCube outsold the PS2 in 2004 in the region you're talking about right? 

PS2 sales 2004 -  3.77M

GC sales 2004 - 4.09M (edit- I mistakenly put WW numbers, America was 2.65M ^^")

Nevertheless, 41.3% GC sales ratio between the GC + PS2 in the US for 2004 is still the best it's ratio has been in a calendar year.


thismeintiel said:

You can keep pulling numbers out of thin air if you wish, but that won't make them true.  And in 2002 you could get a DVD player for much less than $150.  That was the price of a cheap player in late 2000.  By 2002, you were looking at ~$75.  A $25 difference isn't going to stop people from buying one console over the other.

Below is the Average price of the PS2/GC taking into account how many months it was at "a" price during that calendar year.

AVG DVD player PURCHASE price per year via link. - http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=497

Year PS2 Price AVG DVD Player AVG PS2 VS DVD GameCube AVG GC + DVD PS2 VS (GC + DVD)
2001 $299 $165 $134 more for PS2 $199 $364 $65 less for PS2
2002 $232 $142 $ 90 more for PS2 $166 $308 $76 less for PS2
2003 $186 $123 $ 63 more for PS2 $133 $256 $70 less for PS2
2004 $159 $109 $ 50 more for PS2 $ 99 $208 $49 less for PS2

The PS2 was $65 cheaper than the GC + DVD in 2001, 

The PS2 was $76 cheaper than the GC + DVD in 2002, 

The PS2 was $70 cheaper than the GC + DVD in 2003, 

The PS2 was $49 cheaper than the GC + DVD in 2004.

The GameCube was more expensive then the AVG purchase price of a DVD player in 2001, 2002 and 2003. 


The following is information for US data:

Year PS2 Sales DVD Player Sales DVD + PS2 (Total) PS2 % of Total
2001  8.41M 12.71M 21.12M 40% PS2
2002 11.33M 17.09M 28.42M 40% PS2
2003  7.89M 21.99M 29.88M 26% PS2
2004  3.77M 20.00M 23.77M 16% PS2
2005  8.13M 16.15M 24.28M 33% PS2
2006  5.54M 19.79M 25.33M 22% PS2

PS2 sales peaked in 2002.


From 2001 to 2006 (DVD player + PS2) sales averaged 25.47M/year.

(DVD player + PS2) sales were steady around that 25.47M/year average even with dips and rises in PS2 sales.

The demand for TV connected DVD devices was steady.

As you can see in both 2001 and 2002 40% of total players sales were PS2s, even in spite of cheaper DVD players.

When 40% of total sales of direct to TV capable DVD players were PS2s, then people were bound to be using the DVD capabilities of those PS2s in 2001 and 2002. 

When I first saw this thread, I honestly LAUGHED!!! The idea of the PS4 even coming close to Wii sales numbers, sounded ludicrous!

...but then I decided to try and take the topic serious for a few minutes and simply look at historical numbers, just to see how out in right field the idea was - and while history is definitely not a GUARANTEE of future trends, it's certainly a worthwhile indicator. So, hang with me on this for a minute or two, and see if my logic holds.

I think we can all agree that MS & Sony are marketing (and generally sold) to the same type of players - so, when you look at the past combined sales of those consoles, you have:

PS2/XBox - Approximately 180 million (vast majority went to PS2, but it released well before XBox)
PS3/X360 - Approximately 175 million (nearly identical numbers for both consoles)
PS4/XBOne - About 95 million so far (PS4 is currently outselling XBOne 2:1)

If we ASSume that the PS4/XBone generation will eventually hit that same 175-180 million mark combined, that would mean another 80 million or so PS4/XBOnes will be sold by the time the next generation starts. If the PS4 continues its 2:1 sales ratio, then that would put that 80 million split at (about) 50 to 25 million (PS4 to XBOne, respectively) - putting the final sales for both consoles at: PS4-63+50=113 million vs. XBOne 31+25=56 million.

PS4 edges out the Wii ever so slightly: 113 to 101 million.

Now, obviously my entire post is LOADED with ASSumptions and wild speculation - but even still, at least I've attempted to back up my approximated claims with some historical trends... ...and by doing so, it makes the OP a little more believable and not something I could just laugh off, as I initially did.

...just a couple of pennies from me. :)