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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Finacial Times: Nintendo to produce 18M Switch units in FY18

tbone51 on 28 May 2017
Kerotan said:
tbone51 said:

It wont be more front loaded. It looks that way to yourself because of how the first year line up is. Which any1 at first glance would think. But there is much much more to it than that. 

 

Splat2

Zelda (3d)

Mario (2d)

 

Are the big system sellers here for the first year. MHXXMK8D are still ports despite being huge sellers. Its not MH5/MK9 and ARMS is a new ip. The other games are mid to smaller tier 

 

Still got pokemon (rumored STARS is still a port, not a new game) that can come out next year as well as SSB5/2D Mario/Animal Crossing/etc for the years 2018/2019. Including more (like a pokemon generation 8)

 

If anything this shows the much longer life of tge hardware. And with a possible Handheld only switch in 2 years, this wont be front loaded imo

I include year 2 in its early line up. 

Year 2 is early line up? Isnt peak years for most systems year 2+3? Then that defeats front loaded part no? Well besides that i expect the games i listed and more to come out in Years 2-4.

 

MK9 for example wont come out early as mk8d will do fine for at least 2 years. Then there is Zelda probably again in year 4ish and other huge games.

They wont jam pack all of those games in 2017/18 (big system sellers). And if pokemon stars really does come out in 2018 then that means the biggest system seller for the switch (an actual brand new pokemon generation) wont come out intill 2019 (year 3).

 

Its too early to say but i think your underestimating the switch for its first 3-4 years.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention that if its supply restraint all year which is a possibility then how will it be front loaded? Only systems that were supply restraint badly was ps4 (3 first months and about half a year for Europe) and Wii (for over a year) and look how much those sold :o



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Kerotan on 28 May 2017
tbone51 said:
Kerotan said:

I include year 2 in its early line up. 

Year 2 is early line up? Isnt peak years for most systems year 2+3? Then that defeats front loaded part no? Well besides that i expect the games i listed and more to come out in Years 2-4.

 

MK9 for example wont come out early as mk8d will do fine for at least 2 years. Then there is Zelda probably again in year 4ish and other huge games.

They wont jam pack all of those games in 2017/18 (big system sellers). And if pokemon stars really does come out in 2018 then that means the biggest system seller for the switch (an actual brand new pokemon generation) wont come out intill 2019 (year 3).

 

Its too early to say but i think your underestimating the switch for its first 3-4 years.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention that if its supply restraint all year which is a possibility then how will it be front loaded? Only systems that were supply restraint badly was ps4 (3 first months and about half a year for Europe) and Wii (for over a year) and look how much those sold :o

Year 1+2 is early line up for me in terms of an entire generation. 



Jranation on 28 May 2017
Shikamo said:

And people are stll denying it xD



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tbone51 on 28 May 2017
Kerotan said:
tbone51 said:

Year 2 is early line up? Isnt peak years for most systems year 2+3? Then that defeats front loaded part no? Well besides that i expect the games i listed and more to come out in Years 2-4.

 

MK9 for example wont come out early as mk8d will do fine for at least 2 years. Then there is Zelda probably again in year 4ish and other huge games.

They wont jam pack all of those games in 2017/18 (big system sellers). And if pokemon stars really does come out in 2018 then that means the biggest system seller for the switch (an actual brand new pokemon generation) wont come out intill 2019 (year 3).

 

Its too early to say but i think your underestimating the switch for its first 3-4 years.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention that if its supply restraint all year which is a possibility then how will it be front loaded? Only systems that were supply restraint badly was ps4 (3 first months and about half a year for Europe) and Wii (for over a year) and look how much those sold :o

Year 1+2 is early line up for me in terms of an entire generation. 

If its a sony generation maybe :p

 

Year 2 is still early so wont completely disagree



Kerotan on 28 May 2017
tbone51 said:
Kerotan said:

Year 1+2 is early line up for me in terms of an entire generation. 

If its a sony generation maybe :p

 

Year 2 is still early so wont completely disagree

I see no reason why the Switch generation can't be nice and long.  In 5 years the Switch power will still be relevant for a handheld. 



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tbone51 on 28 May 2017
Kerotan said:
tbone51 said:

If its a sony generation maybe :p

 

Year 2 is still early so wont completely disagree

I see no reason why the Switch generation can't be nice and long.  In 5 years the Switch power will still be relevant for a handheld. 

I still think that nintendo will release a HH only sku in 2 years. ($199 price point) so i can see that.



Kerotan on 28 May 2017
tbone51 said:
Kerotan said:

I see no reason why the Switch generation can't be nice and long.  In 5 years the Switch power will still be relevant for a handheld. 

I still think that nintendo will release a HH only sku in 2 years. ($199 price point) so i can see that.

Why HH only? It would be expensive to prove a connection from it to the TV. 



Cloudman on 28 May 2017

Dang, that's quite a jump from the original planned 10 mil. I wonder if they can really sell 18 mil in its 1st year.



 

              

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VideoGameAccountant on 28 May 2017

I don't think the 18 million is entirely random. Nintendo sold 18.61 million Wii systems in its first full fiscal year.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2008/080424e.pdf



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zorg1000 on 28 May 2017
Cloudman said:
Dang, that's quite a jump from the original planned 10 mil. I wonder if they can really sell 18 mil in its 1st year.

from what i understand produced and shipped are not the same thing so if they produce 18m than shipments will be lower, maybe 14-16m?



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