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Forums - Sales Discussion - How well will Splatoon 2 sell LT

 

Total LT sales for Splatoon 2

less than 3 million 5 2.38%
 
3-4 million 12 5.71%
 
4-5 million 19 9.05%
 
5-6 million 24 11.43%
 
6-7 million 30 14.29%
 
7-8 million 38 18.10%
 
8-10 million 60 28.57%
 
more than all video games... 22 10.48%
 
Total:210
Flilix on 28 May 2017

Assuming the Switch won't be a failure, I think 6m+ is a safe bet.



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Ultrashroomz on 28 May 2017

To think everyone was like this when discussing Splatoon 1's sales. (Apologies if compression makes it look like crap.)

Anyways, I'll just say 9M+ LT for now.



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

zorg1000 on 28 May 2017

Over 10 million



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 28 May 2017

More than 10 million, just like Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey



Lonely_Dolphin on 28 May 2017
VAMatt said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
The current installbase is not a negative to lifetime sales.

The small current install base does not necessarily mean it won't sell a ton in the long run.  But, games sell best when they're new, and any game is limited by the number of people that own the hardware.  So, the current install base is most definitely a negative.  Its just the degree to which it holds down sales that is unkown.  

It is not a negative, snipping out my reasons and evidence doesn't disprove them. 



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jason1637 on 28 May 2017

6.5m



Cerebralbore101 on 28 May 2017
PAOerfulone said:

Well over 10 million, hell, maybe even over 15 million.
And there are a few reasons as to why I think this.
1. Splatoon 1 managed to nearly reach over 5 million on the Wii U, something that is VERY impressive for an new IP that many people were unsure of at first (There were those people who thought it would sell leas than Wonderful 101.) Imagine what it can do on a system that sell is selling at thenlevels the Switch is selling right now? Especially now that it has a strong fan base and strong momentum behind it?
2. Japan is all about portabilitity. Splatoon 2 will be on a system that effectively and eventually replace the 3DS as the number 1 dedicated gaming system in that country. Out of the 5 million copies the first game did, around 1.6 was in Japan, where the Wii U's install base is less considerably less than North America's. 2 will end up in one of these three levels over there:
Level 1: Pokemon/Animal Crossing
Level 2: Monster Hunter/Dragon Quest
Level 3: Mario Kart/2D Mario
Personally, I think it'll end up in level 1. So around 4.5-5 million in Japan, plus 5 million in NA. 3.5 million in Europe atound 800k-1 million in the Rest of the World to round it up to around 14-15 million lifetime.
The hype is real! The momentum is real!
Mario, Pokemon, Zelda, and Animal Crossing, make room!!
You've got one more joining you to make a full starting lineup of All Stars that could dismantle the Warriors AND Cavaliers!
Nintendo's Big 5!!

Thanks for posting for me, and saving me time typing all that up. 



VAMatt on 28 May 2017
Einsam_Delphin said:
VAMatt said:

The small current install base does not necessarily mean it won't sell a ton in the long run.  But, games sell best when they're new, and any game is limited by the number of people that own the hardware.  So, the current install base is most definitely a negative.  Its just the degree to which it holds down sales that is unkown.  

It is not a negative, snipping out my reasons and evidence doesn't disprove them. 

You didn't provide any reasons.  You mentioned other games that sold well, dispite the small install base of their systems at launch.  That doesn't prove anything, as we don't know how they would have sold if they launched on systems with bigger install bases.  

As I said, Splatoon 2 may sell very well in the long run.  But, it is simply a fact that games sell best when they're new.  It is also a fact that games are limited by the install base of the systems they're on.  Therefore, it is a fact that a small install base at launch is a negative for sales.  The only question is how much of a negative is it.  



Teeqoz on 28 May 2017

Mario Kart 8 sold over 8 million on the Wii U's tiny installbase, and Splatoon did almost 5 million, even though its legs got cut short by the Wii U not being available in Japan. Splatoon 2 will keep on selling for a long time, so the Switch installbase will have time to grow. Now add to that how insanely well Splatoon 2 will do in Japan, I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say 11 million lifetime.



fory77 on 28 May 2017

The average of all estimates in this thread + 1.