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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch vs Ps4 - Who will win 2017 WW

Barkley said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Switch sales in Japan are at 3.3 million as for 24 December 2017, and account for 25% of WW sales, which mean Switch is at ~13.2 million worldwide.

With another week, is pretty fair to assume that 13.5 million will be the minimum of Switch sales in 2017, not the maximum. I actually think 13.6/13.7 million will be the final number, with worldwide shipments at around 14.5 million.

Well VGC's figures are now going to be 13m tops, but we can compare them to official and media create to check how their tracking is in Japan/USA.

Japan - 3.2m (December 24th. Media Create) 

USA - "Over 4.8m" (First 10 months, January 3rd-ish?, Nintendo)

Now for VGC.

Japan - 3.19m (December 23rd) seems spot on with Media Create

USA - 4.7m (December 23rd), With another week, or slightly over a week, to go it actually looks like VGC is overtracking USA a little bit.

So there doesn't seem to be a reason to believe VGC is undertracking the Switch by any substantial degree, so now the Switch should end around 12.4-12.8m

So no 13.5m wasn't the minimum, my range was seemingly too high. I couldn't find the 25% figure you used, but I think the problem was taking that source too literally, a deviation of a single % would be a massive difference.

So only because US/JP looks "right" it can't be undertracked in the rest of the world?

 

Anyway, guess what, Nintendo france has confirmed that Switch outsold Wii U worldwide. 

https://www.lesnumeriques.com/loisirs/switch-retrogaming-super-mario-zelda-l-incroyable-come-back-nintendo-a3491.html

 

When you will see Switch over 14 million shipped at worst, you'll see why VGC clearly undertrack Switch.



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Ryng_Tolu said:
Barkley said:

Well VGC's figures are now going to be 13m tops, but we can compare them to official and media create to check how their tracking is in Japan/USA.

Japan - 3.2m (December 24th. Media Create) 

USA - "Over 4.8m" (First 10 months, January 3rd-ish?, Nintendo)

Now for VGC.

Japan - 3.19m (December 23rd) seems spot on with Media Create

USA - 4.7m (December 23rd), With another week, or slightly over a week, to go it actually looks like VGC is overtracking USA a little bit.

So there doesn't seem to be a reason to believe VGC is undertracking the Switch by any substantial degree, so now the Switch should end around 12.4-12.8m

So no 13.5m wasn't the minimum, my range was seemingly too high. I couldn't find the 25% figure you used, but I think the problem was taking that source too literally, a deviation of a single % would be a massive difference.

So only because US/JP looks "right" it can't be undertracked in the rest of the world?

Anyway, guess what, Nintendo france has confirmed that Switch outsold Wii U worldwide. 

https://www.lesnumeriques.com/loisirs/switch-retrogaming-super-mario-zelda-l-incroyable-come-back-nintendo-a3491.html

When you will see Switch over 14 million shipped at worst, you'll see why VGC clearly undertrack Switch.

Yeah don't worry VGC tracking is fine with France too, 896k as of 23rd december from VGC, 911k in 2017 official.

Like I said 13.5m isn't the minimum, there's no way VGC is undertracking by at least 700k. It'd be nice if you'd admit when you're wrong once in a while, I'm having flashbacks to the 20m Pokemon Moon/Sun sales prediction.



Barkley said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

So only because US/JP looks "right" it can't be undertracked in the rest of the world?

Anyway, guess what, Nintendo france has confirmed that Switch outsold Wii U worldwide. 

https://www.lesnumeriques.com/loisirs/switch-retrogaming-super-mario-zelda-l-incroyable-come-back-nintendo-a3491.html

When you will see Switch over 14 million shipped at worst, you'll see why VGC clearly undertrack Switch.

Yeah don't worry VGC tracking is fine with France too, 896k as of 23rd december from VGC, 911k in 2017 official.

Like I said 13.5m isn't the minimum, there's no way VGC is undertracking by at least 700k. It'd be nice if you'd admit when you're wrong once in a while, I'm having flashbacks to the 20m Pokemon Moon/Sun sales prediction.

So you are just gonna ignore that Switch has officially outsold the Wii U?

 

We first have Nintendo saying Japan is 25% of WW sales, and then Nintendo France saying worldwide Switch is head of Wii U, yet you say 13.5m is the top.

 

And what about that Moon/Sun prediction? I already said it probabily won't break 20 million mark, though you are basically saying it won't go over 16.5m lifetime even if it only has 590K to go. Guess we'll see who really is wrong. :)



So we have people that thought PS4 would do half of Switch?

All these haters that didn't believe Switch would for sure sell more than PS4, unaceptable.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Ryng_Tolu said:
JRPGfan said:

Is it though? I thought id check if that was true.

 

VGC's Hardware Year-Over-Year Comparison 2016-2017, added up 2017 numbers for the US for both the PS4 & Switch.

Results for 2017 unit sales are as follows:

PS4 = 4,3m units sold in the us.

Switch = 3,4m units sold in the us.

 

From jan - > november, in 2017, so far the PS4 has sold more units in the US than the Switch has.

Maybe Switch does better in december and closes that gap, but its just as likely it doesnt.

Switch is selling better in December, and if we look at Amazon it looks like is gonna sell way more in January too.

2017 was 2017, i knew PS4 was gonna win this year since summer. Doesn't matter tho, since we know why PS4 sold more than Switch in November, and we know that right now Switch is doing better.

 

Pillertriller said: 

Always these excuses lost because no deals no stock blah blah the switch has only a chance in us because already a ton of people already own a ps4. And this are facts and not just excuses

I would like to discuss about what do you think are facts and excuses, boy.
How even does Switch have a chance in US because "a ton of people already bought a PS4" ? Isn't the same in Europe?

We already have many reports which say Switch outsold PS4 in December, actually, they also say by a huge margin. I'm not saying that's gonna be the case, but we know is 99% sure Switch outsold PS4 in December, and January so far is by far worse for PS4 on Amazon.

Don't worry anyway, when Switch has enough stock and PS4 has no insane promotions, there is no way PS4 sells close to Switch in USA, so for PS4 to beat Switch in 2018, Sony should do insane deals and price cuts and Nintendo should continue to have stocks problems for all year, something which is very unlucky.

2018 Switch will be by far the best selling console in USA, easy, actually, there a chance it outsell PS4 every months, but let's not get crazy now, the point is that Switch will easy wins US by a good margin, and Japan by an absyss. I don't know if people understand that, actually, there is a big chance that Switch in Japan in 2018 sells more than PS4 in US. I would say it's most likely gonna be the case, and Switch sales in US will be also bigger than in Japan, so there you go.

Europe and Rest of the world are not gonna close this gap.

Switch in Japan will sell more than PS4 in USA? That is something I want to see.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Switch is selling better in December, and if we look at Amazon it looks like is gonna sell way more in January too.

2017 was 2017, i knew PS4 was gonna win this year since summer. Doesn't matter tho, since we know why PS4 sold more than Switch in November, and we know that right now Switch is doing better.

 

I would like to discuss about what do you think are facts and excuses, boy.
How even does Switch have a chance in US because "a ton of people already bought a PS4" ? Isn't the same in Europe?

We already have many reports which say Switch outsold PS4 in December, actually, they also say by a huge margin. I'm not saying that's gonna be the case, but we know is 99% sure Switch outsold PS4 in December, and January so far is by far worse for PS4 on Amazon.

Don't worry anyway, when Switch has enough stock and PS4 has no insane promotions, there is no way PS4 sells close to Switch in USA, so for PS4 to beat Switch in 2018, Sony should do insane deals and price cuts and Nintendo should continue to have stocks problems for all year, something which is very unlucky.

2018 Switch will be by far the best selling console in USA, easy, actually, there a chance it outsell PS4 every months, but let's not get crazy now, the point is that Switch will easy wins US by a good margin, and Japan by an absyss. I don't know if people understand that, actually, there is a big chance that Switch in Japan in 2018 sells more than PS4 in US. I would say it's most likely gonna be the case, and Switch sales in US will be also bigger than in Japan, so there you go.

Europe and Rest of the world are not gonna close this gap.

Switch in Japan will sell more than PS4 in USA? That is something I want to see.

Its very possible looking at it carefully (2018 sales)



Ryng_Tolu said:
Barkley said:

Yeah don't worry VGC tracking is fine with France too, 896k as of 23rd december from VGC, 911k in 2017 official.

Like I said 13.5m isn't the minimum, there's no way VGC is undertracking by at least 700k. It'd be nice if you'd admit when you're wrong once in a while, I'm having flashbacks to the 20m Pokemon Moon/Sun sales prediction.

So you are just gonna ignore that Switch has officially outsold the Wii U?

I'd prefer a source that I don't have to google translate.

"The Switch today has beaten Wii U sales levels throughout its entire career (13.56 million units between 2012 and 2017)."

But we can assume this number is shipped not sold to consumers, which sounds about right.

So again 12.4m-12.8m is now the range for Switch sell-through by the end of 2017. Not "minimum of 13.5m"

Last edited by Barkley - on 13 January 2018

Keep in mind Switch launched with all its most killer apps except for metroid so it is about to fall very badly in sales where 2018 is concerned and that is a fact! PS4 will sell another 23mil this year due to some of its near killer apps and some games we dont even know of yet if ff7 remake comes its a definite eye opener.



tbone51 said:
DonFerrari said:

Switch in Japan will sell more than PS4 in USA? That is something I want to see.

Its very possible looking at it carefully (2018 sales)

Everything is possible, but I don't think it's likely...

And what about your prediction that PS4 would do less than half of Switch sales?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Ka-pi96 said:
Gamer147 said:
Nintendo can win if they sell to the whole world like PS4 does. But Nintendo cannot beat PS4 if it sells in 60 countries and PS4 in 100. But PS4 will probably win this year because of their massive price advantage. Playstation for $200 is a great deal. Nintendo won’t be able to lower price until they sell at least 20 million units. So can nintendo win yes. But unlikely this year. Nintendo will sell at least 14 million units before March 31st 2018 and that’s huge for Nintendo.

I think you're massively overestimating the effect those additional countries had. PS4 in just its top 10 countries would probably still have beat the Switch with its full world wide sales...

If the Switch had released in extra places like Guatemala or Tahiti it wouldn't have even been close to overcoming that gap

The excuses we make to show PS4 as worse and Switch as the god sent machine =p



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."