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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 4-8-17

PAOerfulone said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Well to be fair there is no guarantee that Animal crossing will sell great on the Switch. So honesstly yeah quite a few of them will come close maybe even surpass animal crossing. It sold amazing on DS and 3DS. About the same and even less than those PS4 games on the Wii and even less on GC and Wii U. So why would you feel that none of those games could come close to it?

Pokemon is another monster all together and I agree that will explode in sales!  One thing is for certain though....after this year the PS4 will definitely decline but it is not for certain if the Switch will surge.....even though I sooooooooooooo hope that it does.

According to Nintendo: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html New Leaf sold close to 11 million at the end of March (It has passed it by now) and is closing in on Wild World and could reach 12 million. If we're talking strictly PS4, I doubt the PS4 version of RDR2 will outsell AC: Switch by itself, combined with all the other verisons yes, but we're talking about PS4 specifically. God of War? Nope. Spiderman? Nope. Gran Turismo? It's got a chance. Gran Tursimo 4 sold 11.66 on the PS2 when it came out in the middle of the PS2's life cycle. I would expect Sport to sell around that number. Last of Us? Perhaps.
I'll admit, I went a little overboard when I said it wouldn't come close to Animal Crossing, but it's certainly not going to be a walk in the park.
And the Switch will see a jump. The system that it could be compared to is the 3DS, which jumped 1 million from launch year to peak year, but the Switch doesn't have any of the problems the 3DS had that is holding it back. (3D effect, overpricing, weak launch) and I don't think it will experience the software droughts that plagued the 3DS and Wii U. So I think the future looks very bright for the Switch.

At the bolded those are the two the DS one and 3DS one that sold AMAZING lol. But none of the others did. The next closest one was the Wii and that was at like 5 mil maybe less. That's why I said why would none of those games be able to sell close to Animal Crossing? Are yous aying it is guranteed that a New Animal crossing will sell 11-12 million? Because if not then yes A LOT of those mentioned games have a shot at not only coming close to Switch numbers but surpassing them.

Just using VGC numbers for instance and 6 Animal crossing games the average is about 5.6 million. So yeah almost all of those games have a very good shot at that. Now as far as the Switch goes again it does not have any of the issues the 3DS has but of course it has some challenges to face. Every system does.....that's why I want to wait and see how it does July/August if stock and demand has caught up to get a better idea of the level of Switch sales. I truly hope it keep selling amazingly well. I plan on getting mine this fall if there is a good bundle and if not DEFINITELY when the New Pokemon game comes out!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

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SpokenTruth said:
Dallinor said:

Lifetime? How?

People are really bullish on Switch sales in here. What am I missing?

A Switch.  You're mising a Switch.

I presume you don't own one?

Of course not, then I would understand how it's going to break records obviously. Duh.

Whats' the perspective? It sells to both the handheld and home console audience? Blue Ocean? Attracting greater than Wii levels of casuals?



 

TheBlackNaruto said:
I think June/July will be telling for the Switch. I hope it keeps up this pace and keeps it rolling!

June will be telling. July is Splatoon and an explosion of sales will come. You can't contain the splatoon hype. Seriously if ARMS pulls a splatoon on us then no worries in June as well



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Eagle367 said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
I think June/July will be telling for the Switch. I hope it keeps up this pace and keeps it rolling!

June will be telling. July is Splatoon and an explosion of sales will come. You can't contain the splatoon hype. Seriously if ARMS pulls a splatoon on us then no worries in June as well

So Splatoon is July okay I did not know that! Now I won't say an explosion of sales will come but there will be an increase for sure. I mainly said July/August becuase I don't think Nintendo will have the shipments sorted out before July. That's what I am waiting on. To see how sales pan out once there is a steady supply out there.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

TheBlackNaruto said:
PAOerfulone said:

According to Nintendo: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html New Leaf sold close to 11 million at the end of March (It has passed it by now) and is closing in on Wild World and could reach 12 million. If we're talking strictly PS4, I doubt the PS4 version of RDR2 will outsell AC: Switch by itself, combined with all the other verisons yes, but we're talking about PS4 specifically. God of War? Nope. Spiderman? Nope. Gran Turismo? It's got a chance. Gran Tursimo 4 sold 11.66 on the PS2 when it came out in the middle of the PS2's life cycle. I would expect Sport to sell around that number. Last of Us? Perhaps.
I'll admit, I went a little overboard when I said it wouldn't come close to Animal Crossing, but it's certainly not going to be a walk in the park.
And the Switch will see a jump. The system that it could be compared to is the 3DS, which jumped 1 million from launch year to peak year, but the Switch doesn't have any of the problems the 3DS had that is holding it back. (3D effect, overpricing, weak launch) and I don't think it will experience the software droughts that plagued the 3DS and Wii U. So I think the future looks very bright for the Switch.

 1. At the bolded those are the two the DS one and 3DS one that sold AMAZING lol. But none of the others did. The next closest one was the Wii and that was at like 5 mil maybe less. That's why I said why would none of those games be able to sell close to Animal Crossing? Are yous aying it is guranteed that a New Animal crossing will sell 11-12 million? Because if not then yes A LOT of those mentioned games have a shot at not only coming close to Switch numbers but surpassing them.

2. Just using VGC numbers for instance and 6 Animal crossing games the average is about 5.6 million. So yeah almost all of those games have a very good shot at that. Now as far as the Switch goes again it does not have any of the issues the 3DS has but of course it has some challenges to face. Every system does.....that's why I want to wait and see how it does July/August if stock and demand has caught up to get a better idea of the level of Switch sales. I truly hope it keep selling amazingly well. I plan on getting mine this fall if there is a good bundle and if not DEFINITELY when the New Pokemon game comes out!

I think that can be chalked up to the difference between console and handheld audiences. 
DS - 12 million --> Wii: 4.5 million --> 3DS: 11 million. (Including close to 5 million in Japan alone, which is the highest selling game of the 8th generation over there, even more than Pokemon X/Y.)
That drop and then spike isn't just a mere coincidence in my view. It's clear that Animal Crossing is at its strongest as a handheld series. Plus, out of those 6 games, two fo them were spinoffs, one of them is Amiibo Festival, which was released on the Wii U when the system was already dead in the water, plus it had the amiibo paywall going against it. But the other one, Happy Home Designer, a spinoff, has outsold the original on the GameCube, and if we factor in digital sales, Nintendo said it was at 2.02 million as of Sept. 30th, 2015, and VGC had it at around 1.3 million - so that's .72 digital sales that were unaccounted for. If we add those sales, that brings Happy Home Designer to 4 million copies sold, and it's most likely much higher than that since it has had a year and a half since then to add even more digital sales. Chances are that if it hasn't already, Happy Home Desinger will pass City Folk on the Wii as well. So that would be around 4.5 million copies sold for a SPINOFF. And given the hybrid nature of the Switch, I think Animal Crossing for Switch will do just fine, it could potentially be the highest selling game in the series if Nintendo plays their cards right.



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PAOerfulone said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

 1. At the bolded those are the two the DS one and 3DS one that sold AMAZING lol. But none of the others did. The next closest one was the Wii and that was at like 5 mil maybe less. That's why I said why would none of those games be able to sell close to Animal Crossing? Are yous aying it is guranteed that a New Animal crossing will sell 11-12 million? Because if not then yes A LOT of those mentioned games have a shot at not only coming close to Switch numbers but surpassing them.

2. Just using VGC numbers for instance and 6 Animal crossing games the average is about 5.6 million. So yeah almost all of those games have a very good shot at that. Now as far as the Switch goes again it does not have any of the issues the 3DS has but of course it has some challenges to face. Every system does.....that's why I want to wait and see how it does July/August if stock and demand has caught up to get a better idea of the level of Switch sales. I truly hope it keep selling amazingly well. I plan on getting mine this fall if there is a good bundle and if not DEFINITELY when the New Pokemon game comes out!

I think that can be chalked up to the difference between console and handheld audiences. 
DS - 12 million --> Wii: 4.5 million --> 3DS: 11 million. (Including close to 5 million in Japan alone, which is the highest selling game of the 8th generation over there, even more than Pokemon X/Y.)
That drop and then spike isn't just a mere coincidence in my view. It's clear that Animal Crossing is at its strongest as a handheld series. Plus, out of those 6 games, two fo them were spinoffs, one of them is Amiibo Festival, which was released on the Wii U when the system was already dead in the water, plus it had the amiibo paywall going against it. But the other one, Happy Home Designer, a spinoff, has outsold the original on the GameCube, and if we factor in digital sales, Nintendo said it was at 2.02 million as of Sept. 30th, 2015, and VGC had it at around 1.3 million - so that's .72 digital sales that were unaccounted for. If we add those sales, that brings Happy Home Designer to 4 million copies sold, and it's most likely much higher than that since it has had a year and a half since then to add even more digital sales. Chances are that if it hasn't already, Happy Home Desinger will pass City Folk on the Wii as well. So that would be around 4.5 million copies sold for a SPINOFF. And given the hybrid nature of the Switch, I think Animal Crossing for Switch will do just fine, it could potentially be the highest selling game in the series if Nintendo plays their cards right.

It will sell amazing without a doubt I agree. But all I am saying is we can't say for sure that none of those games will sell close to Animal Crossing becuase there is no guarantee that Animal Crossing will sell 12 million units. It has the POTENTIAL for sure though!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Skeeuk said:

switch will be dropping a lot in coming months

Everything will drop, that's summer every year. PS4 did sub-160k average through June-July-August last year and dipped into 140k a couple of weeks as well, never rose above 180k for the whole summer.

Summer is slow, this is nothing new. But it should give Nintendo an opportunity to meet demand in the markets where it's still sold out much of the time (US and Japan have the biggest shortages by far).



TheBlackNaruto said:
PAOerfulone said:

I think that can be chalked up to the difference between console and handheld audiences. 
DS - 12 million --> Wii: 4.5 million --> 3DS: 11 million. (Including close to 5 million in Japan alone, which is the highest selling game of the 8th generation over there, even more than Pokemon X/Y.)
That drop and then spike isn't just a mere coincidence in my view. It's clear that Animal Crossing is at its strongest as a handheld series. Plus, out of those 6 games, two fo them were spinoffs, one of them is Amiibo Festival, which was released on the Wii U when the system was already dead in the water, plus it had the amiibo paywall going against it. But the other one, Happy Home Designer, a spinoff, has outsold the original on the GameCube, and if we factor in digital sales, Nintendo said it was at 2.02 million as of Sept. 30th, 2015, and VGC had it at around 1.3 million - so that's .72 digital sales that were unaccounted for. If we add those sales, that brings Happy Home Designer to 4 million copies sold, and it's most likely much higher than that since it has had a year and a half since then to add even more digital sales. Chances are that if it hasn't already, Happy Home Desinger will pass City Folk on the Wii as well. So that would be around 4.5 million copies sold for a SPINOFF. And given the hybrid nature of the Switch, I think Animal Crossing for Switch will do just fine, it could potentially be the highest selling game in the series if Nintendo plays their cards right.

It will sell amazing without a doubt I agree. But all I am saying is we can't say for sure that none of those games will sell close to Animal Crossing becuase there is no guarantee that Animal Crossing will sell 12 million units. It has the POTENTIAL for sure though!

We will see. Time will tell.



Dallinor said:
Intrinsic said:
I think people are forgetting the NS is still a pretty young console. barring stock issues I still expect it to beat the PS4 everywhere (including EU).

Unlike most talking about stock issues, I am more interested in seeing what baseline the switch has after its first holiday season. So basically NS sales around this time next year.

Lifetime? How?

People are really bullish on Switch sales in here. What am I missing?

Hell no..... i mean in these launch weeks or months. 

It think its ridiculous thinking that a console that just launched shouldn't be selling better than whats been out there for going on 4 years now. But eventually this launch frenzy will fizzle out. And the NS baseline will either remain on par with its launch numbers or it will drop. Only then can we get a real feel for how the console will perform.



Pretty good numbers for all the big systems

Wonder how much of an effect the shortages are impacting Switch sales



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