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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Red Dead Redemption 2 delayed so... is Zelda BOTW GOTY?

 

is Zelda BOTW GOTY?

Yes 350 69.86%
 
No 126 25.15%
 
Super Mario Odyssey is GOTY 25 4.99%
 
Total:501
contestgamer said:
curl-6 said:

Saying that any series that hasn't passed 10 million in a single entry is "niche" is ridiculous, 99+% of franchises never cross that mark.

Even if we exclude remasters/ports, Zelda has already passed the 7 million mark twice, and Breath of the Wild is going to pass 10 million anyway, it's over a third of the way there as of its first month.

If BOTW passes 10 million then it will no longer be niche - I doubt it will pass 10 million, I expect around 7-8 million. But if it does pass 10 we'll call it mainstream. Until it does though its conjecture. 

That's absurd though because by that logic there are only a handful of "mainstream" franchises in the industry. Your 10 million number is not only completely arbitrary, but excludes many franchises that fit the definition of mainstream in both popularity and recognition.

And Botw sold 3.8 million in its first month, has incredible word of mouth, is one of the best reviewed games of all time, and is the killer app for the Switch, why would it not pass 10 million?



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curl-6 said:
contestgamer said:

If BOTW passes 10 million then it will no longer be niche - I doubt it will pass 10 million, I expect around 7-8 million. But if it does pass 10 we'll call it mainstream. Until it does though its conjecture. 

That's absurd though because by that logic there are only a handful of "mainstream" franchises in the industry. Your 10 million number is not only completely arbitrary, but excludes many franchises that fit the definition of mainstream in both popularity and recognition.

And Botw sold 3.8 million in its first month, has incredible word of mouth, is one of the best reviewed games of all time, and is the killer app for the Switch, why would it not pass 10 million?

Best not to argue with someone who has decided to make himself the authority on definitions.  Such a fight never ends and cannot be won.



Ka-pi96 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I think this whole debate rests on the fact that you're using your own version of the word niche which in reality doesn't fit any of the franchises mentionned. The best definition of niche that I found is in French but I'll translate it best I can to English : 

Un marché de niche est un marché très étroit correspondant à un produit ou service très spécialisé. Le fait de viser un marché de niche permet souvent d’être confronté à une concurrence moins forte, mais les volumes de ventes potentiels sont naturellement plus faibles.

In English: A niche market is a very narrow market that corresponds to a very specialized product or service. Targetting a niche market often allows to face weaker competition but the potential volume of sales in naturally smaller.

Zelda, Uncharted, God Of War, Horizon, any franchise that sells multiple million copies doesn't fit this definition. I guess your intention is to differenciate these series with the franchises that sells over 10m copies like CoD, Mario Kart and GTA and I agree with you that there should be two different terms for each category but "niche" is not the term you're looking for.

Firstly, you speak French? :O

Secondly, yeah that's pretty much the definition I've always used for niche. I'd say how many copies the game sells is actually irrelevant. Whether it sold 10 copies or 20 million copies as long as it's still an action-adventure/RPG game and isn't some really weird variation of those games or a different genre altogether it still wouldn't be niche. That fits in with that definition perfectly. Target market and potential/predicted sales = whether niche or not rather than actual sales.

That makes no sense to me. Had Zelda sold 10 thousand units it would be niche. It certainly wouldn't be mainstream. Are you going to delineate in popularity between GTA 5 and a GTA 5 clone that sells 10k units in anyway then?



TruckOSaurus said:
contestgamer said:

 

Whether its multi platform or not is irrelevant to the discussion of whether it is niche or not. Multi platform games obviously have a much better chance of becoming mainstream since they reach a broader audience.   Zelda cant reach a multi platform audience so it is at a disadvantage, but we dont measure mainstream or niche by the size of the platform, we measure it by the size of the market. Zelda is niche by that measure. You cant be mass market selling 4-7 million units when GTA 5 sells 80, mario kart 7 30 and even Witcher 3 selling 10+ when it's an almost identical game. Uncharted is niche - it's a great franchise, but it gets crushed by real mainstream franchises like COD and GTA in terms of sales. again, its disadvantaged by being on one platform but that' the way it is. You need to hit about 10 million to be mainstream now.

I think this whole debate rests on the fact that you're using your own version of the word niche which in reality doesn't fit any of the franchises mentionned. The best definition of niche that I found is in French but I'll translate it best I can to English : 

Un marché de niche est un marché très étroit correspondant à un produit ou service très spécialisé. Le fait de viser un marché de niche permet souvent d’être confronté à une concurrence moins forte, mais les volumes de ventes potentiels sont naturellement plus faibles.

In English: A niche market is a very narrow market that corresponds to a very specialized product or service. Targetting a niche market often allows to face weaker competition but the potential volume of sales in naturally smaller.

Zelda, Uncharted, God Of War, Horizon, any franchise that sells multiple million copies doesn't fit this definition. I guess your intention is to differenciate these series with the franchises that sells over 10m copies like CoD, Mario Kart and GTA and I agree with you that there should be two different terms for each category but "niche" is not the term you're looking for.

OK, fair enough. So then what term should we use that deliniates between a Zelda sized brand and a GTA sized brand? Blockbuster vs not? 



fleischr said:
contestgamer said:

Those hit 10 million due to remakes, not indvidual buyers. heyre around 8 million individually probably.  Similar games in similar genres have sold far more - Witcher 3, Skyrim, Fallout, RDR and Far Cry. Zelda BOTW is an open world game similar to those (perhaps less Far cry) and I doubt it will outsell them. 

You do realize that Breath of the Wild is likely near 4 million already, right?

There's actually a good chance it can outsell those franchises, and on a significantly smaller hardware base no less.

Like I said, I would predict that BOTW will sell about 8 million when its all said and done. But I also said that being on one hardware vs multiple makes no difference, the only thing that matters is how many people did you reach. 8 million to me just isnt mainstream. There have been games that have sold that much in like a couple of weeks.



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curl-6 said:
contestgamer said:

If BOTW passes 10 million then it will no longer be niche - I doubt it will pass 10 million, I expect around 7-8 million. But if it does pass 10 we'll call it mainstream. Until it does though its conjecture. 

That's absurd though because by that logic there are only a handful of "mainstream" franchises in the industry. Your 10 million number is not only completely arbitrary, but excludes many franchises that fit the definition of mainstream in both popularity and recognition.

And Botw sold 3.8 million in its first month, has incredible word of mouth, is one of the best reviewed games of all time, and is the killer app for the Switch, why would it not pass 10 million?

 You could say that about virtually every Zelda game, just replace Switch with whatever console they were on. Even OOT didn't sell 10 million and that's widely regarded as the greatest game of all time, even today. Metroid Prime, Mario Galaxy 2,  Resident Evil 4, these are all games that didnt come close to 10 mill and were all time great games.



contestgamer said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I think this whole debate rests on the fact that you're using your own version of the word niche which in reality doesn't fit any of the franchises mentionned. The best definition of niche that I found is in French but I'll translate it best I can to English : 

Un marché de niche est un marché très étroit correspondant à un produit ou service très spécialisé. Le fait de viser un marché de niche permet souvent d’être confronté à une concurrence moins forte, mais les volumes de ventes potentiels sont naturellement plus faibles.

In English: A niche market is a very narrow market that corresponds to a very specialized product or service. Targetting a niche market often allows to face weaker competition but the potential volume of sales in naturally smaller.

Zelda, Uncharted, God Of War, Horizon, any franchise that sells multiple million copies doesn't fit this definition. I guess your intention is to differenciate these series with the franchises that sells over 10m copies like CoD, Mario Kart and GTA and I agree with you that there should be two different terms for each category but "niche" is not the term you're looking for.

OK, fair enough. So then what term should we use that deliniates between a Zelda sized brand and a GTA sized brand? Blockbuster vs not? 

Sure mainstream for Zelda sized and blockbusters for GTA sized could work.



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contestgamer said:
curl-6 said:

That's absurd though because by that logic there are only a handful of "mainstream" franchises in the industry. Your 10 million number is not only completely arbitrary, but excludes many franchises that fit the definition of mainstream in both popularity and recognition.

And Botw sold 3.8 million in its first month, has incredible word of mouth, is one of the best reviewed games of all time, and is the killer app for the Switch, why would it not pass 10 million?

 You could say that about virtually every Zelda game, just replace Switch with whatever console they were on. Even OOT didn't sell 10 million and that's widely regarded as the greatest game of all time, even today. Metroid Prime, Mario Galaxy 2,  Resident Evil 4, these are all games that didnt come close to 10 mill and were all time great games.

Pretty sure Ocarina didn't sell 3.8 million in its first month alone and single-handed carry an entire console to record-breaking sales.

People need to stop using past Zelda games to draw conclusions about Botw; Botw is not bound by the limits of its forebears, it will surpass them all.



It won't be Jim Sterling's GOTY.



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