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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Year 1 - Week 52 - Global Switch Sales vs WiiU/XboxOne/3DS/PS4

Bofferbrauer on 26 May 2017
torok said:

If Sony was really worried about PCs, they wouldn't let all their consoles exclusive games launch on Steam. They even allow games they funded and published to be on PC, while they agressively get games off X1. As these titles would sell more on X1 than on PC, it would be easy to keep them off Steam and get a games advantage. The Pro model sems to compete for the higher-end market and it, maybe, intersects a bit with PCs. Anyway, its sales are already showing that this segment is way smaller than the market for the regular model.

The games that are coming to PC are old, not their newest exclusives. It's basically like having a Playstation virtual console on PC. If PC Gamers want PS4 titles they'll have to buy a PS4 or wait a decade, give or take.

While Dreamcast bit the dust in 2001, the PS2 was responsible for its demise. It wasn't PS1 and N64 that did that. We have interviews from former Sega guys claiming that they had a target for sales before PS2 launched to deem the console viable to compete against it. They didn't make it so there wasn't possible to compete. PS2 killed it.

Sega themselves killed the Dreamcast, it was just too expensive to produce and had to be sold at a loss even though Sega was already bleeding money fast at the time. If they had hit their sales target, it just would have meant that the Dreamcast would have bitten the dust earlier. The only way to have saved the Dreamcast would have been to raise the price by at least about 100$ - which would have killed the Dreamcast by a different angle anyway.

So where we would find the correct gen definition? Wikipedia is probably our best source.

So far so true.

However, I treat Switch, PS4 Pro and Scorpio more like a  Gen 8.5 as this seems more "right" to me. I do the same by the way with the 32bit consoles, aka the Phillips CDi, the 3DO, Nec SuperGraphX and Sega 32X and label them as Gen 4.5 as they don't fit with their predecessors (SNES, Megadrive/Genesis, TurboGraphX, Neo Geo) and not with their successors either (N64, PS1, Saturn, Jaguar); and in the case of the 32X and SuperGraphX are hardware upgrades which don't fully replace their base consoles, which only come later in form of the Saturn and the (sadly) failed PC-FX


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dharh on 27 May 2017

Rol is actually not too far from what I would have as my launch window for PS5.

It's been a while since I've done a launch prediction. This is what I said back on March 25, 2011 with some updated info.

If I'm conservative with the trends this is what I see:

NES: july 15, 1983
SNES: Novermber 21, 1990 - 88 months
N64: June 23, 1996 - 67 months
GC: September 14, 2001 - 57 months
Wii: November 19, 2006 - 62 months
Wii U: Prediction - 65 months or May 2012 - Reality 72 months / November, 2012
Switch: Prediction would have been - 60 months or November, 2017 - Reality was 52 months / March, 2017

PS1: december 3, 1994
PS2: march 4, 2000 - 63 months
PS3: november 11/17, 2006 (jp/na) - 80 months
PS4: Prediction - 84 months or November, 2013 (na) - Reality 84 months or November 2013

It's actually kinda funny because in April 2011 there seemed to be some confirmation that Wii2 (what I called Wii U before it's official name was going to be revealed) would be released April 2012.  Alas it obviously turned out to November 2012.

Anyway, again based on past trends:

PS5: Prediction - Either 72 months or November 2019.  Or more likely 84 months or November 2020.  I feel pretty confident that is the window we will see PS5 launch, give or take if SONY desides to release on an odd month like March or December.

Edit: My brain must have been off.  November 2019 not 2017 and 2020 not 2018...



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Wyrdness on 28 May 2017

New hardware numbers are up for week ending April 22nd.



Green098 on 28 May 2017

Updated



Alkibiádēs on 28 May 2017

Damn, the PS Vita comparison is just humiliating lol.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

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zorg1000 on 28 May 2017

next week NSW will surpass XBO



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

GuyDuke on 28 May 2017

Oh shit!! Switch got a fucking bump! And next week should be even higher since it's Mario Kart 8 DX release. Quite delighted to see it hang on



iNathan on 28 May 2017

Ps4 never looked back, what a freaking monster, Wii will be topped sooner rather than later.



GuyDuke on 28 May 2017
RolStoppable said:
guiduc said:
Oh shit!! Switch got a fucking bump! And next week should be even higher since it's Mario Kart 8 DX release. Quite delighted to see it hang on

Looks like an error in the North American numbers, so the worldwide total is going to get scaled down to ~200k. Still, next week should be higher than 245k regardless, because Switch went from 45k to 75k in Japan and other regions saw increased stock as well.

Damn, Rol! You had to ruin it



Quodam_Diem on 28 May 2017

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