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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the Console Market Grow in the 9th Generation?

 

Will the 9th Gen Console Market Be Larger or Smaller than the 8th Gen?

Larger 30 28.57%
 
Equal 22 20.95%
 
Smaller 53 50.48%
 
Total:105
S.T.A.G.E. on 21 May 2017
KBG29 said:
abronn627 said:

I'm sorry, but I really don't understand how you can believe that they can grow by pushing phone version of their product in an already oversaturated market with no place for new competitors. I've been reading theses threads for months and this idea of your's  to have a Switch phone or Playstation Phone doesn't make sense.

Sony already tried pushing games with the Xperia brand and they failed. We can even argue that the Vita has been more affected by mobile devices than 3DS, wich lifetime sales won't be far off from the GBA. Switch is selling well because it does one thing really well, playing games. Sony did the same thing, instead of pushing their hardware with feature like talking to your TV to change channel, they focused on the games. On Vita, they marketed it like a platform that can do everything, but why as a consumer would I buy an other product that can do everything ?

So no, they don't want to fight the big players on the phone market and you don't want them too. The future of gaming is not in the phone market.

The future of gaming is Play Anywhere and VR. People want access to their content on all of their devices, whether they are connected or not. It is just a matter of who offers this first. If you can get full Madden, Call of Duty, Destiny, ect. on Android and iOS for home, mobile and VR, you can bet your ass that PlayStation, Xbox, and Nintendo will be left out in the cold. 

Sony has absolutely never pushed gaming with Xperia. They have never made a single product that unified Phones and Consoles. Vita was the closest, but it was stripped of its cellular capabilities to focus on Xperia slab phones. Xperia Play had 'Zero' support from Sony developers, and 'Zero' connection to PlayStation Network. We have never seen a Phone/Handheld with full access to PSN, and full development support of Sony 1st party and 3rd party development.

Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo can gain massive marketshare if they continue to expand on the idea of what a console or handheld can do. If they open up their ecosystem to non gaming and non entertainment apps, they can compete head to head with anyone on the market. On the other hand, if they fall back into the gaming only role, they will get stream rolled by Google and Apple, because they will not hesitate to go after the gamer once they start to see growth in other areas slow down. 

I absolutley want all three major gaming manufactures to go after Apple and Google. I don't like the way Apple and Google have ran the phone industry, and I absolutely don't want to see the come into the gaming market unattested. Gaming is my passion, and have no interest in Google and Apple coming in and crippling it the same way they have crippled the mobile industry.

No one needs to join Microsoft in anything outside of online gaming. Sadly, whatever successes outside of game development Microsoft has Sony will follow. They set a low standard of game development for which the top console makers are known for being strong in first party. The only two companies to increase the major market of console gaming are nintnedo and Sony and there's a reason for it which include brand identity  and games. Play anywhere does not endorse console adoption, but adoption of Microsofts model which does not help consoles at all. If it was about consoles there would be no play anywhere.



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KBG29 on 22 May 2017
S.T.A.G.E. said:

No one needs to join Microsoft in anything outside of online gaming. Sadly, whatever successes outside of game development Microsoft has Sony will follow. They set a low standard of game development for which the top console makers are known for being strong in first party. The only two companies to increase the major market of console gaming are nintnedo and Sony and there's a reason for it which include brand identity  and games. Play anywhere does not endorse console adoption, but adoption of Microsofts model which does not help consoles at all. If it was about consoles there would be no play anywhere.

How does Play Anywhere not endorse the adoption of consoles, when it is just an evolution of Cross Buy, which Sony started 5 years ago. Call it what you want, but people want their content on all of their devices, whether it be games, movies, music, apps, they want it with them wherever they go, and on whatever form factor of device they have on them. 

I agree that Microsoft has done a terrible job with first party games lately, and Nintendo and Sony have been outstanding. However, even Microsofts poor job with its 1st party line-up absolutely destroies what Apple, Google, and Valve have done in th last decade though. 

Personally, I look at it as luckily whatever Microsoft/Sony does the other has to stay competitive, because that means better value, and more options for us as gamers and consumer. If Microsoft wants to make gaming on everything from phones to PC with one purchase the standard value, then I am all for it.

Expanding the capabilities of consoles and handhelds and opening them up to a larger market is in no way a bad thing. The more features these devices have the more people can justify a purchase. There are plenty of people out their that would love a console or handheld, but they already have a PC, Set Top Box, Smartphone, or Tablet, that they have to have for other things, because the consoles don't offer it. Bring the neccesities to consoles, and they won't have to make that decision. 

It is inevitable, that either consoles/handhelds will become more versitile and steal market share from PC,/Tablets/Smartphones, or the others will become more capable gaming devices, and end the need for consoles/handhelds all together. Personally, I hate the idea of a gaming industry without Nintendo and Sony, so I would highly prefer consoles and handhelds to grow as opposed to going extinct.



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S.T.A.G.E. on 22 May 2017
KBG29 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

No one needs to join Microsoft in anything outside of online gaming. Sadly, whatever successes outside of game development Microsoft has Sony will follow. They set a low standard of game development for which the top console makers are known for being strong in first party. The only two companies to increase the major market of console gaming are nintnedo and Sony and there's a reason for it which include brand identity  and games. Play anywhere does not endorse console adoption, but adoption of Microsofts model which does not help consoles at all. If it was about consoles there would be no play anywhere.

How does Play Anywhere not endorse the adoption of consoles, when it is just an evolution of Cross Buy, which Sony started 5 years ago. Call it what you want, but people want their content on all of their devices, whether it be games, movies, music, apps, they want it with them wherever they go, and on whatever form factor of device they have on them. 

I agree that Microsoft has done a terrible job with first party games lately, and Nintendo and Sony have been outstanding. However, even Microsofts poor job with its 1st party line-up absolutely destroies what Apple, Google, and Valve have done in th last decade though. 

Personally, I look at it as luckily whatever Microsoft/Sony does the other has to stay competitive, because that means better value, and more options for us as gamers and consumer. If Microsoft wants to make gaming on everything from phones to PC with one purchase the standard value, then I am all for it.

Expanding the capabilities of consoles and handhelds and opening them up to a larger market is in no way a bad thing. The more features these devices have the more people can justify a purchase. There are plenty of people out their that would love a console or handheld, but they already have a PC, Set Top Box, Smartphone, or Tablet, that they have to have for other things, because the consoles don't offer it. Bring the neccesities to consoles, and they won't have to make that decision. 

It is inevitable, that either consoles/handhelds will become more versitile and steal market share from PC,/Tablets/Smartphones, or the others will become more capable gaming devices, and end the need for consoles/handhelds all together. Personally, I hate the idea of a gaming industry without Nintendo and Sony, so I would highly prefer consoles and handhelds to grow as opposed to going extinct.

Play anywhere endorses adoption central Xbox hub on any platform. Thats all it is.  It does have its perks because if Microsoft cannot sell games on consoles they can always supplement it with PC sales from gamers who did not purchase or have no intention of purchasing an Xbox yet still want what few exclusives they have. Play anywhere is Microsoft competing with everyone. He who spreads himself too thin becomes a master of nothing. Consoles will have to be more versatile, but Microsoft sets standards only in integration where as a console company they are below par. That said, I thank them for their successes in helping consoles go online faster than they had anticipated. They were headed there anyway, but with a proper model they were given good reason to follow along. That is helping consoles. To take away exclusivity from the console realm is to truly not have a clue as to what make consoles special. Once more, the reasons why Sony increased the popularity of consoles to new heights in the late 90's and 2000's was because of their investment to making consoles to ultimate in home box. Personally, I believe the Xbox 360 and 360 fanbase was fashioned from the 160 million gamers sony had grown the generation previously. Isnt it interesting how both brands ended up with more of a similar number combined towards the end of the gen? 80 million plus between the both of them? In between them Nintendo further increased the industry's size with the Wii by finding casuals who never sought to own a console because of alienation or lack of interest. Microsoft plays me too in both aspects,.Because of Microsofts lack of identity and constantly following, they cannot ultimately increase the market. They are only trying to increase their reach. Sony and Nintendo can handle handhelds, and truthfully I think Sony should lay off as they should learn from last gen about spreading themselves too thin on their developmental resources. Nintendo runs the handheld part of the industry and it was smart of them to capitalize on the switch. If they can get the DS crowd to migrate they can increase their holdings in the primary console market with a more stable following to support software sales.



VAMatt on 22 May 2017
eva01beserk said:
VAMatt said:
What is the definition of 8th gen? In other words, which systems?

we might be close to the final, if not there yet, gen. I mean I dont see another jump in tech, or a big enouf one to say its gen 9. after 4k60fps its pointless. So new games will probably look similar but with better phisycs and AI. And maybe VR will grow more. SO gen 8 could last another refresh, pro+ scorpio+.

Also note in the  increase per gen. How unsually long the 7th was. If refreshes extended it to the same lenth the 8th could be bigger.

Yeah, that's basically what I'm trying to get at with my question.  There is no way to know how many units will sell, if we can't define the generation.  At this point, we don't have any idea what this generation will look like, because it keeps growing.  

Also, is Switch 8th gen?



killeryoshis on 22 May 2017

It is possible. I believe the Switch will outsell 3DS + Wii U sales. So Nintendo will go up. I am not as sure for Sony. PS5 will have to do Vita + PS4 sales. I do expect PS5 to do better than PS4 but not that much. I think Sony will do the same or a small rise. Microsoft will do worse no doubt. Xbox 4 will not sell.

So overall sales will probably be the same or a small rise. So I say yes 9th gen might outsell 8th gen.



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Soundwave on 22 May 2017

Microsoft makes too much money from XBox Live, they won't be leaving, as much as I'd like them to (nothing against their products or fans). 



Soundwave on 22 May 2017
Shadow1980 said:
The market for home consoles arguably reached a saturation point of sorts in Gen 6, at least when it comes to conventional consoles. The PS3 & 360 had combined sales about the same as that of the PS2 & OXbox, and it's entirely possible that the PS4 & XBO, perhaps in large part due to how similar to the two systems are and how the XBO struggled early on and has failed to rebound and gain significant traction outside the U.S. & UK, fail to even reach that 180-190M mark. Both systems did not see any significant growth last year (in fact, they were down YoY in the U.S.), and may be passing their peaks if they haven't done so already. While evidence suggests that last generation there were quite a few household that had both a 360 and PS3, it's possible that the portion of gamers who owned both a PlayStation and Xbox system has declined this generation. I still think the PS4 will end up at around 100-110 million, while the XBO may end up at only half that, putting the Gen 8 market for conventional systems at only 165M, an approximately 13% drop from the roughly 190M of last gen. I do not think we will see a similar drop with the PS5 and Xbox 4, however.

Nintendo has been the wild card, going from 22 million units (GameCube) to 102 million (Wii) to less than 14 million (Wii U). Now the Switch is looking to see Nintendo rebound yet again. However, what generation the Switch belongs to is a contentious topic among many gamers. It's own successor is likely to arrive maybe at most three years (maybe only two) after the PS5 and Xbox 4 launch. The Switch's odd mid-gen launch will probably do more to prevent the cyclical rise and fall of the overall console market this go around than grow the market. It will hitting its peak no later than 2019, a point where the combined PS+Xbox market will be at its new nadir (assuming a 2020 launch for the PS5 & Xbox 4). It will meanwhile decline in sales while the PS5 & XBO start to gain steam, and the Switch successor will likely release before the PS5 & XB4 peak and will itself peak no more than a year or two after the PS5 & X4 do. For the entire period of 2017 to 2023, I think we'll see annual console sales hover in the 13.5 to 15 million range in the U.S., and 37-40M globally (the U.S. representing 35-40% of the global market).

Of course, I've excluded handhelds from this commentary so far. The 3DS, while a very successful system in its own right, represents a big drop from the absolutely massive DS, which was an absolute beast that, for whatever reason, far exceeded anyone's expectations and was a PS2-level success that will be hard to replicate. Likewise, the PSP was the first and only non-Nintendo handheld to achieve widespread mainstream success, something the Vita has completely and utterly failed to do. Between the 3DS and Vita, the handheld market shrunk from about 235M last gen to only about 80M so far.

The Switch is a hybrid system, and it's entirely possible that it will fully supplant the 3DS within a year or two. If so, then Nintendo is effectively putting all its eggs in one basket. The 3DS has so far pulled down something like 65 million units and still rising; it could still end up in the 75-80M range. Add the Wii U to that and you have roughly 90-95M units for Nintendo platforms released in the 2011-13 window that was the start of the current generation. The Switch could potentially do that, but if it's going to be carrying Nintendo all by its lonesome it's going to have to continue being very successful, something that's entirely possible, perhaps even guaranteed, if and when the next main series Pokemon game comes to the system. Even with just the Switch, Nintendo will likely not prove to be a hindrance for the overall hardware market in the coming years. While the 3DS, Vita, and Wii U collectively are responsible for the gen-over-gen decline from Gen 7 to Gen 8, I think the overall hardware market is starting to stabilize, and Nintendo being out of sync with Sony & MS will as mentioned make the overall hardware market less prone to large swings between zeniths and nadirs like it used to have (assuming they don't have another Wii U-level failure after the Switch, and MS & Sony don't do anything to really rock the status quo boat).

Nintendo doesn't really care which generation they belong to. 

I don't think there will be a "traditional" Switch successor in an old fashioned sense either, Switch will play by new rules, there will be a higher end Switch in 3 years ... yes I can see that, but the current Switch won't go anywhere. 

I think Nintendo is going to adopt a high price tier/lower price tier 1-2 combo from here on out, which they basically are already employing with the current Switch and 3DS. They'll just replace 3DS with the current Switch once that becomes cheaper and then have a new higher end model after a few years (and probably more models in both tiers too). 



Azelover on 22 May 2017

I'm gonna reply the general question because your post is way too long.

Truth is. If the mobile market dies or implodes somehow, THEN console gaming will grow again.

I think it should happen because mobile to me is downright evil. I'd rather have another Wii Fit generation than stand another 10 years of mobile domination. Crash that shit for the Love of God.



Soundwave on 22 May 2017
Azelover said:
I'm gonna reply the general question because your post is way too long.

Truth is. If the mobile market dies or implodes somehow, THEN console gaming will grow again.

I think it should happen because mobile to me is downright evil. I'd ratrher have another Wii Fit generation than stand another 10 years of mobile domination. Crash that shit for the Love of God.

I'm fine with it. If those people just want simple things to play, fine, great, they're not needed in a $300 hardware + $60 software market. It was always a weird fit to begin with. They get their gaming fix from smartphones and that's fine, dedicated home platforms should be for people who really like video games, not people who are just in on the basis of a fad. 

I think Switch will be a better system than the Wii, and will sell well enough without needing a Wii Sports/Fit ... it's selling like gangbusters now without benefit of a casual blockbuster to help drive sales, something even the Wii or DS could not claim. Zelda and Mario Kart are selling it just fine. 

Console market makes enough money anyway. Sony is selling great, Nintendo is selling great, Microsoft is selling ok but don't really need the money, so who cares. 



AlfredoTurkey on 23 May 2017

It'll depend on if Sony or Microsoft can match the Switch. I think Switch is going to sell very well and so, if Sony and Microsoft's 9th generation consoles match it, or do well, we'll see growth in console gaming. It's really up to them at this point.

Dedicated handheld gaming, which is separate, is dying off or, depending on who you talk to, dead already... that's another story. I think the future of that market is in smart phones. When you compare iPhone sales alone, there's no contest. That ship has sadly sailed.

Long live the memory of Gameboy.