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Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

Zod95 said:

PS4 does not have to be added to PSV to be successful. PS4 is selling more than 15M per year and is at 57% market share. If that's not a success then NES isn't either. And I think NES was a tremendous success.

Nah, Turkish and others here have made it clear that it's fine to just mush all the numbers together. A mere 150 million PS4 sales would represent stagnation for Sony's install base since last gen.



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It could sell 40 million pieces of hardware with a 13-14 ratio of software. We could say then that it can be considered as success.

Anyway, as a friend mentioned before it has to do with the market share it will achieve.



ZhugeEX said:
Pavolink said:

So, are the billions of smartphones now part of the userbase?

 

Are they part of a Nintendo owned userbase? Nope. (Although if they sign up for a Nintendo account when they download the game then I would say they are)

Are they part of a userbase that contributes to Nintendo's brand awareness, drives synergy with its traditional business and postiviely impacts the bottom line? Absolutely. 

Good. It was a nice move from their part.



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Zod95 said:
zorg1000 said:

Did you miss the post earlier that shows Nintendo has sold 85-115 million every generation excluding Wii/DS?

So 80M is below the lower bound of that interval (which already ignores the most successful generation for Nintendo) and you would consider it a success?

when you factor in the overlap of people who purchase both a handheld & home console each generation and now only need to buy a single device than yes 80 million is a good number.

regardless i dont consider something a success based solely on hardware numbers things like software sales & profit have to be taken into account as well. if Nintendo sells 80 million units of Switch over the course of 5-6 years, sells a few hundred million units of 1st party software, a few hundred million units of 3rd party software and makes the company a few billion dollars in profit than yes it would undeniably be a success.



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Much of the fall from previous generations is because of handheld systems falling somewhat out of favour, perhaps due to mobile gaming becoming more popular. The Switch has all the tools it needs to become a success. Whether that means 40 million, 80 million or something else is still to be seen. I don't expect it to reach Wii's sales numbers, as it doesn't quite seem to have the same appeal for more mainstream audiences as the Wii did.



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Turkish said:

From a combined 250 million sold units with the Wii/DS shrunk to barely 80 million with WiiU/3DS.

Will Switch really be a success with only 80 million lifetime sales, if it reaches that number at all, knowing it's the only Nintendo platform going forward? 80 million wouldn't have been a growth but stagnation over last gen.

You can't kump handheld and home consoles together due to unknown overlap. 



All three have smaller install base, but it definitely is looking better for Nintendo



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the_dengle said:
Zod95 said:

PS4 does not have to be added to PSV to be successful. PS4 is selling more than 15M per year and is at 57% market share. If that's not a success then NES isn't either. And I think NES was a tremendous success.

Nah, Turkish and others here have made it clear that it's fine to just mush all the numbers together. A mere 150 million PS4 sales would represent stagnation for Sony's install base since last gen.

Maybe because they see NS as a "mushed" concept. If NS is the successor of both the WiiU and 3DS it's just natural to sum home console + handheld sales on each generation.

PS4 was not the successor of both PS3 and PSP. Your comparison makes no sense.

As for the "Sony's stagnation" that's just false. Who did you see here calling stagnation if NS sells 250M (Wii + DS sales)?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

This is the second thread in the past two days on the same topic with the same premise and the same failed logic.



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zorg1000 said:
Zod95 said:

So 80M is below the lower bound of that interval (which already ignores the most successful generation for Nintendo) and you would consider it a success?

when you factor in the overlap of people who purchase both a handheld & home console each generation and now only need to buy a single device than yes 80 million is a good number.

regardless i dont consider something a success based solely on hardware numbers things like software sales & profit have to be taken into account as well. if Nintendo sells 80 million units of Switch over the course of 5-6 years, sells a few hundred million units of 1st party software, a few hundred million units of 3rd party software and makes the company a few billion dollars in profit than yes it would undeniably be a success.

Let's just consider that SW sales and profits are proportional to HW sales. 80M is what Nintendo made last gen while crying in agony. How's that going to be a success this gen?

Don't take me wrong. I believe (because NS can overlap clients from 2 shrinking markets) that 80M is ok. But to call it a success? No way.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M