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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

Zod95 on 14 May 2017
tbone51 said:
Zod95 said:

I have. If NS is Nintendo's handheld for the years to come, it's basically responding to 2 markets.

WiiU was a disaster. Nintendo never did so poorly. 3DS was definitely not good. I think any other Nintendo handheld did better per year. How can the average of 2 bad results be good? Because, if NS does really replace 3DS, the sales must be devided by 2 in order to fairly compare to other generations. When was the last time Nintendo's home console + handheld did 80M? The 8th generation, of course. And before that?

Yeah...in that case, 80M won't be a success.

However, if NS does not replace 3DS, then 80M is quite an achievement. Not as good as Wii, but still definitely a success.

Your implying only what 4 or 5 handheld/home consoles were ever successful out of the 30+. 

 

If 80mil isnt a success then that means only psx/ps2/wii/ds/gb with soon to be ps4 are the only successful gaming systems.

 

That said as zhuge said its not all about hardware numbers as many think. X1 is more successful than ps3 despite ps3 >>> X1 in hardware sales. Many factors play a role.

No. I'm implying that 80M divided by 2 equals to 40M. And, looking at Nintendo history, that number does not represent a success. I think I was pretty clear when I stated the sentence I'm putting in bold.

How is X1 more successful than PS3? PS3 got more HW sales, more SW sales and more market share.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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forest-spirit on 14 May 2017
the_dengle said:
Guys did you know the PS4 isn't a success unless it fulfills the equation PS4 + PSV = PS3 + PSP

In other words we can call it a failure unless it exceeds 150 million hardware sales

So we can look forward to that in a few years

It's funny how the PS3 era suddenly becomes Sony's most successful if you just look at hardware sales.



zorg1000 on 14 May 2017
Zod95 said:
tbone51 said:

Your implying only what 4 or 5 handheld/home consoles were ever successful out of the 30+. 

 

If 80mil isnt a success then that means only psx/ps2/wii/ds/gb with soon to be ps4 are the only successful gaming systems.

 

That said as zhuge said its not all about hardware numbers as many think. X1 is more successful than ps3 despite ps3 >>> X1 in hardware sales. Many factors play a role.

No. I'm implying that 80M divided by 2 equals to 40M. And, looking at Nintendo history, that number does not represent a success. I think I was pretty clear when I stated the sentence I'm putting in bold.

How is X1 more successful than PS3? PS3 got more HW sales, more SW sales and more market share.

Did you miss the post earlier that shows Nintendo has sold 85-115 million every generation excluding Wii/DS?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Zod95 on 14 May 2017
the_dengle said:
Guys did you know the PS4 isn't a success unless it fulfills the equation PS4 + PSV = PS3 + PSP

In other words we can call it a failure unless it exceeds 150 million hardware sales

So we can look forward to that in a few years

PS4 does not have to be added to PSV to be successful. PS4 is selling more than 15M per year and is at 57% market share. If that's not a success then NES isn't either. And I think NES was a tremendous success.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 on 14 May 2017
zorg1000 said:
Zod95 said:

No. I'm implying that 80M divided by 2 equals to 40M. And, looking at Nintendo history, that number does not represent a success. I think I was pretty clear when I stated the sentence I'm putting in bold.

How is X1 more successful than PS3? PS3 got more HW sales, more SW sales and more market share.

Did you miss the post earlier that shows Nintendo has sold 85-115 million every generation excluding Wii/DS?

So 80M is below the lower bound of that interval (which already ignores the most successful generation for Nintendo) and you would consider it a success?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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the_dengle on 14 May 2017
Zod95 said:

PS4 does not have to be added to PSV to be successful. PS4 is selling more than 15M per year and is at 57% market share. If that's not a success then NES isn't either. And I think NES was a tremendous success.

Nah, Turkish and others here have made it clear that it's fine to just mush all the numbers together. A mere 150 million PS4 sales would represent stagnation for Sony's install base since last gen.



Quodam_Diem on 14 May 2017

It could sell 40 million pieces of hardware with a 13-14 ratio of software. We could say then that it can be considered as success.

Anyway, as a friend mentioned before it has to do with the market share it will achieve.



Pavolink on 14 May 2017
ZhugeEX said:
Pavolink said:

So, are the billions of smartphones now part of the userbase?

 

Are they part of a Nintendo owned userbase? Nope. (Although if they sign up for a Nintendo account when they download the game then I would say they are)

Are they part of a userbase that contributes to Nintendo's brand awareness, drives synergy with its traditional business and postiviely impacts the bottom line? Absolutely. 

Good. It was a nice move from their part.



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Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


zorg1000 on 14 May 2017
Zod95 said:
zorg1000 said:

Did you miss the post earlier that shows Nintendo has sold 85-115 million every generation excluding Wii/DS?

So 80M is below the lower bound of that interval (which already ignores the most successful generation for Nintendo) and you would consider it a success?

when you factor in the overlap of people who purchase both a handheld & home console each generation and now only need to buy a single device than yes 80 million is a good number.

regardless i dont consider something a success based solely on hardware numbers things like software sales & profit have to be taken into account as well. if Nintendo sells 80 million units of Switch over the course of 5-6 years, sells a few hundred million units of 1st party software, a few hundred million units of 3rd party software and makes the company a few billion dollars in profit than yes it would undeniably be a success.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Darashiva on 14 May 2017

Much of the fall from previous generations is because of handheld systems falling somewhat out of favour, perhaps due to mobile gaming becoming more popular. The Switch has all the tools it needs to become a success. Whether that means 40 million, 80 million or something else is still to be seen. I don't expect it to reach Wii's sales numbers, as it doesn't quite seem to have the same appeal for more mainstream audiences as the Wii did.



My Twitter: @TheDarashiva

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