This analysis must always be tempered with the fact that the Wii was an outlier; focusing on the diminishment of the handheld market would make for a more meritorious argument.

So no one is going to mention that Nintendo's IP is now no longer tied to its own platforms?

Just look how much profit Nintendo had from Pokemon Go or the growth of its smart device segment with the release of Fire Emblem Heroes.

I'd argue that Nintendo's IP is reaching more than ever before.

In general I see more players experiencing Nintendo's IP, higher margins and higher profits than the Wii U/3DS gen. 

In general, and this isn't just about Nintendo here, but I feel that a lot of members of this forum put too much stock into hardware sales and what that means. 

Yes, hardware sales and install bases matter, but in 2017 it's software, services and multi platform expansion that is king. Yes we've seen the overall hardware install base decline. That's a fact for all three companies. But in general we've seen the average spend per user increase as the console audience ages, has more disposable income and is introduced to more content and services that they can interact with/purchase.

Just look at Xbox Live and PlayStation Network. PlayStation Network accounts for over 90% of Sony's profits today and the segment is larger than hardware sales in terms of Net Revenue. Microsoft may not be the hardware leader this gen but its Xbox Live service continues to grow in terms of the number of transactions + amount spent per transaction. Xbox has been profitable for the past couple of years becasue of this. 

Both Sony and Microsoft are expanding their services with stuff like PS Vue, Remote Play, Forward Works, Xbox Games Pass, Beam, Play Anywhere etc... 

Nintendo is doing something similar in expanding to mobile devices, amiibo, theme parks. All three taking similar approaches where the console is no longer the center of the business but one of many entry points into a much wider gaming ecosystem. 

So yes, hardware install base is important. But just look at any companies financials to see what the more important metrics are today. 

So, are the billions of smartphones now part of the userbase?

Are they part of a Nintendo owned userbase? Nope. (Although if they sign up for a Nintendo account when they download the game then I would say they are)

Are they part of a userbase that contributes to Nintendo's brand awareness, drives synergy with its traditional business and postiviely impacts the bottom line? Absolutely. 

well Nintendo has been shoddy with foresight themselves with many of their consoles.

I'm sure Nintendo will do all they can to get the ratio just right for you to consider their console successful!

I have. If NS is Nintendo's handheld for the years to come, it's basically responding to 2 markets.

WiiU was a disaster. Nintendo never did so poorly. 3DS was definitely not good. I think any other Nintendo handheld did better per year. How can the average of 2 bad results be good? Because, if NS does really replace 3DS, the sales must be devided by 2 in order to fairly compare to other generations. When was the last time Nintendo's home console + handheld did 80M? The 8th generation, of course. And before that?

Yeah...in that case, 80M won't be a success.

However, if NS does not replace 3DS, then 80M is quite an achievement. Not as good as Wii, but still definitely a success.

Your implying only what 4 or 5 handheld/home consoles were ever successful out of the 30+. 

If 80mil isnt a success then that means only psx/ps2/wii/ds/gb with soon to be ps4 are the only successful gaming systems.

That said as zhuge said its not all about hardware numbers as many think. X1 is more successful than ps3 despite ps3 >>> X1 in hardware sales. Many factors play a role.

That works both ways though.

The Wii wasn't a success because only lame casuals bought it due to artificial demand and it had waggle controls and Nintendoom.

Guys did you know the PS4 isn't a success unless it fulfills the equation PS4 + PSV = PS3 + PSP

In other words we can call it a failure unless it exceeds 150 million hardware sales

So we can look forward to that in a few years