Turkish said:
From a combined 250 million sold units with the Wii/DS shrunk to barely 80 million with WiiU/3DS.
Will Switch really be a success with only 80 million lifetime sales, if it reaches that number at all, knowing it's the only Nintendo platform going forward? 80 million wouldn't have been a growth but stagnation over last gen.
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I think you are a bit over dramatic, but I see your point. People keep moving the goal post for what is a successful console. It needs to stop, because consoles are not in a closed market space anymore. Home and Mobile gaming in any form must compete with dozens of competitors. PlayStation, Nintendo, and Xbox are in competition with Apple, Google, Amazon, Comcast, Facebook, and many more little competitors whether they like it or not. We have to be looking at how to grow the userbase of gaming focused devices, not keep going, well X is good as long as they make a profit. We need userbases to be large enough that every dev making content for Windows, iOS, and Android apps and services wants to be part of our ecosystems.
Personally, I don't see Switch in its current form even hitting 80M units. I believe Nintendo has a 30 - 50M strong core userbase between their home and mobile devices. I belive Switch can sell to that core in its current form, if Nintendo wants to reach 80 - 100M and beyond, they have to expand their platform. A more home oreinted Switch nees to come out eventually, and even more importantly, they need a Switch Phone. I feel for Sony and Nintendo to be considered successful, they need to get their platforms in the same conversation as Windows, iOS, and Android.
Qwark said:
Playstation and Xbox is installbase also shrunk from gen 7 to gen 8. Because Vita and PS4 are not going to sell 160 million + units. And the Xbox One is probably not going to beat the 360. Yet the PS4 is seen as a big succes and nobody cares about the Vita. Handheld and home consoles are two different kind of beats. If the Switch manages to sell 80 million I would consider it a successful console. |
zorg1000 said:
The same can be said for Sony & Microsoft.
PS2 sold 157 million & PS3+PSP sold about 165 million. PS4+Vita will not match either of those.
Xbox 360 sold 85 million and Xbox One will not match that.
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jason1637 said:
Will Sony sell 160m PS4s+Vita? Of course not but Sony is doing a lot better than they were last generation.
Nintendo started last gen bad with losing money but they recovered and still made profits and that's pouring onto the Switch generation. |
Viktor said:
What a surprise a negative Nintendo related thread by the usual suspect. Just to put things in some context, the dedicated videogame hardware business is in decline. Sony sold last gen something like 170M-180M (PS3-PSP) - and won´t come anywhere close to that this gen either. Microsoft also looks like it will see notable decline as well by the end of this gen. While the emerging markets getting stronger will slow down this downward trend, I expect that we´ll see further decline next gen in USA, Europe and Japan. |
Zekkyou said:
Sony's overall install base will almost certainly have dropped quite a lot too (probably from around 170m~ to 110 - 120m). It's a much less dramatic drop than Nintendo's, but it's still worth pointing out. The shift from the 7th to 8th gen hit the handheld market like a ton of bricks. The 3DS should be able to keep selling decent numbers for a while longer though, so the gap will be slightly small than it is now.
Anyway, the Switch selling 80m would be great for Nintendo. The 8th gen was difficult for them because it involved 1 system that effectively failed, and another that required losses to get it off the ground. They were also likley expecting both to perform better than they did, so were caught off guard. Right now Nintendo's biggest focus is putting the losses/relatively small profits of the last few years behind them and finding some stability in a market that's desires have shifted from what they used to offer. The Switch selling 80m might technically be a decline, but it'd fulfil both of those roles well. Given how conservative their Switch estimates are for FY2017, i wouldn't be surprised if they've planned for the Switch to fulfil those roles with a lot less than 80m. |
Lot of folks here pretty confident about Sony not hitting 160M PS4 + Vita. Is 140M + 20M really that unbelievable? If we get a 7nm version of the PS4, and a few new form factors over the next few years, I would not be surprised to see PS4 pass that mark by itself.
With standard hardware, and high reliability, I think PS4 will have more active users than PS2 ever had at any given point. On top of that it will deliver more software, and more profits than PS2. In fact I think it will hit a point where they make more profit in a single year from PS4, than they made from the entire PS2 generation. PS4 is going be the foundation to a massivley successful future for PlayStation, and with the right moves the same thing can happen with Switch.
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