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Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

Why are you combining the PS3 and the PSP, as well as the PS4 and the Vita?

why is the OP combining Wii and DS, as well as Wii U and 3DS?

No one should be combining anything with anything. Its all a silly argument.



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i was wondering why there was two threads on this topic. guess this one i the original lol



 

 

potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

why is the OP combining Wii and DS, as well as Wii U and 3DS?

No one should be combining anything with anything. Its all a silly argument.

so you call me out instead of the OP? makes sense.......



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Anfebious said:
Zod95 said:

If you look to the history of predictions in my signature (which I never erase) I stick to every prediction for at least a year. And I intend to continue to do so. And even when I make new predictions, I tend not to deviate far away from the previous ones.

My predictions come from macro-analysis and they are for long periods of time. Some of them are bold but sometimes they are actually more right than the thinking in vogue at the time. Like X1 selling 70% of PS4 when both were perfoming similar and X1 had more margin to lower the price + Halo yet to come. Like the WiiU selling 25M when most people were pointing to 80M-100M. Like X1 selling 40M when today people think that's an incredibly low number. And now the Switch, where no one is sharing my view at the moment but some months/years later that can be common sense.

...Or I'm wrong and then I failed at my analysis. I will be here with my signature intact to accept the mistake. I'm not Johnlucas, who makes insane predictions with no basis and then runs when things get sour. Then it's cheap to be crazy. Try to do what I do and then you'll feel the burden that makes you to be as neutral and rigorous as possible.

Your prediction for the Switch looks just as crazy as johnlucas prediction (200M) for the Wii U to me, just wanted to point that out.

 

As far as I remember, Johnlucas predicted 500M for Wii and 240M for WiiU, and none of that came even close.

My 20M for NS is just as crazy as my 25M for WiiU in Jan 2014. I have my history of predictions in my sig and I have some "victories" to show.

How is that as crazy as the non-commited insane Johnlucas' predictions?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Turkish said:

From a combined 250 million sold units with the Wii/DS shrunk to barely 80 million with WiiU/3DS.

Will Switch really be a success with only 80 million lifetime sales, if it reaches that number at all, knowing it's the only Nintendo platform going forward? 80 million wouldn't have been a growth but stagnation over last gen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1Nd6LU4ImQ



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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archer9234 said:
Rem87919394 said:
Anything over 40 million should be considered a success to me

I can't just count the console. The system has to also have a healthly amount of games. Which include 3rd party. Not all of them. But, key ones. Than i'll count it as a success.

Key 3rd-parties is highly subjective. Except Monster Hunter clearly, every console without MonHun is clearly a failure.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Zod95 said:
zorg1000 said:

im not going to consider that because its not true, SW sales & profit are not proportional to HW sales.

There are many ways Nintendo can be more profitable despite lower hardware sales.

1. Selling hardware at a profit. 3DS was sold at a loss for a full year after the initial big price cut and Wii U was sold at a loss for the majority of its life. This was one of the main reasons they posted losses for a few fiscal years.

2. Streamlined development. They just recently completed the merging of their various software teams and are now working together in a single building. On top of that, developing and creating games/engines for a single platform is more cost/time efficient than developing for two seperate platforms.

3. Reduced hardware R&D costs. Just like with software, Nintendo has merged their hardware teams together and for Switch they abandoned using an exotic chipset and opted for a much more modern and less customized design.

4. Increased 1st party software sales. With a single unified platform all of Nintendo's games will be available to their full audience unlike previous generations. For example, Wii U accounts for less than 20% of their overall hardware sales last generation, that means games exclusive to Wii U were unable to sell to their full potential. Same with 3DS but to a much smaller extent.

5. Increased 3rd party support. Wii U & 3DS did not have support of some of the major 3rd party game engines. Wii U had poor sales resulting in lack of support. 3DS on the other hand had a sizeable install base but did not have support of the major game engines such as Unity or Unreal. Switch having support of the major game engines along with a sizeable install base leads to a higher chance of strong support resulting in higher revenue from 3rd party royalties.

6. Online subscription service. Nintendo is set to release their own paid subscription service for online games. This likely wont make a huge difference right away but in a few years Nintendo could have tens of millions of subscribers. Lets say three years from now Nintendo has 20 million subscribers at $30, thats $600 million in revenue in a single year.

7. Increased digital sales. Nintendo in the last few years has embraced selling games digitally along with DLC. These things have a higher profit margin than physical sales and Nintendo is likely to continue moving in this direction.

8. Increased accessory sales. Unlike 3DS, Switch does not have a clamshell design so things like screen protectors and carrying cases are far more needed. Extra controllers is another big one, Wii U had a low install base meaning a low number of people looking to buy extra controllers, nevermind the fact that Wii controllers were compatible with Wii U so many Wii U owners already had multiple controllers. On top of that Switch has things like additional docks & charging grips/stands.

The combination of all these things will likely see Nintendo post far healthier profit with Switch than they did with 3DS+Wii U.

Ok, I get you. If everything turns out and you say, you may have a point. But, even still, it will be a small success.

you have a weird definition of success than.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

No one should be combining anything with anything. Its all a silly argument.

so you call me out instead of the OP? makes sense.......

It was nothing personal. I know it may have appeared that way given our history, but I sincerely didn't realize I was responding to you.

All that being said, you're right. I should have called out the OP as well.



Zod95 said:
Anfebious said:

Your prediction for the Switch looks just as crazy as johnlucas prediction (200M) for the Wii U to me, just wanted to point that out.

 

As far as I remember, Johnlucas predicted 500M for Wii and 240M for WiiU, and none of that came even close.

My 20M for NS is just as crazy as my 25M for WiiU in Jan 2014. I have my history of predictions in my sig and I have some "victories" to show.

How is that as crazy as the non-commited insane Johnlucas' predictions?

Wow! He predicted 500M for Wii? That's crazy!

Your "victories" are nice and all but they won't make your Switch prediction right! In my opinion it is crazy!



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"

Wii + DS is a bit of an anomaly. They were both huge hits. Plus plenty of people bought multiple versions of the DS (including myself). If Switch by itself achieves 80 million, which I think it should, that shouldn't be viewed as any sort of decline as its a single device, while many owned both Wii AND DS, if not several DS's.



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