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Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo's install base shrunk from 250 million in Gen 7 to ~80 million in Gen 8

Zod95 said:
zorg1000 said:

when you factor in the overlap of people who purchase both a handheld & home console each generation and now only need to buy a single device than yes 80 million is a good number.

regardless i dont consider something a success based solely on hardware numbers things like software sales & profit have to be taken into account as well. if Nintendo sells 80 million units of Switch over the course of 5-6 years, sells a few hundred million units of 1st party software, a few hundred million units of 3rd party software and makes the company a few billion dollars in profit than yes it would undeniably be a success.

Let's just consider that SW sales and profits are proportional to HW sales. 80M is what Nintendo made last gen while crying in agony. How's that going to be a success this gen?

Don't take me wrong. I believe (because NS can overlap clients from 2 shrinking markets) that 80M is ok. But to call it a success? No way.

So NES, SNES, Saturn and XBOX360 were all failures according to this logic lol. 

Now that Nintendo fans don't need to buy two seperate systems anymore they have more money left to buy games. The Switch will see a big increase in software sales. 



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

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Zod95 said:

Maybe because they see NS as a "mushed" concept. If NS is the successor of both the WiiU and 3DS it's just natural to sum home console + handheld sales on each generation.

PS4 was not the successor of both PS3 and PSP. Your comparison makes no sense.

As for the "Sony's stagnation" that's just false. Who did you see here calling stagnation if NS sells 250M (Wii + DS sales)?

I literally used Turkish's own words. I never referred to the 250 million so I don't know where you got that.

Bolded is inherently flawed logic. No, it is not natural to combine sales of two different platforms in this context.

The discussion is about "install base," yes? But "Nintendo install base" combining Wii U and 3DS sales is nonsense. It's as meaningless as "Sony install base" combining PS4 and Vita sales. Install base measures the size of the potential customer pool for software sales. Two distinct systems with different development processes and software libraries have no business being mushed together into one "install base" pool. Hell, the install base of a single platform is only indirectly related to its total hardware sales, since systems like the 3DS have multiple models and people often buy a second or third one. 3 console sales to the same person does not represent 3 separate customers.

Put into a simple example, Wii sold 100 million and Mario Galaxy sold over 10 million. 3DS sold 65 million and 3D Land sold over 10 million. Wii U sold 13 million and 3D World struggled to sell 5 million even with bundles. Odyssey is only one game, it didn't cost twice as much to make just because the platform is now a hybrid. The benefit is that the team who makes it can then make a second game for the same flourishing platform instead of having to support a failing platform that has no hope of producing a sales success.

But according to your sig as recently as a few weeks ago you predicted 20 million sales for the Switch over 3 years so I can see why you would bend over backwards to move those goalposts.



Alkibiádēs said:
Zod95 said:

Let's just consider that SW sales and profits are proportional to HW sales. 80M is what Nintendo made last gen while crying in agony. How's that going to be a success this gen?

Don't take me wrong. I believe (because NS can overlap clients from 2 shrinking markets) that 80M is ok. But to call it a success? No way.

So NES, SNES, Saturn and XBOX360 were all failures according to this logic lol. 

Now that Nintendo fans don't need to buy two seperate systems anymore they have more money left to buy games. The Switch will see a big increase in software sales. 

You didn't pay attention to what I said. Those consoles you mention aren't handhelds, are they?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

the_dengle said:
Zod95 said:

Maybe because they see NS as a "mushed" concept. If NS is the successor of both the WiiU and 3DS it's just natural to sum home console + handheld sales on each generation.

PS4 was not the successor of both PS3 and PSP. Your comparison makes no sense.

As for the "Sony's stagnation" that's just false. Who did you see here calling stagnation if NS sells 250M (Wii + DS sales)?

I literally used Turkish's own words. I never referred to the 250 million so I don't know where you got that.

Bolded is inherently flawed logic. No, it is not natural to combine sales of two different platforms in this context.

The discussion is about "install base," yes? But "Nintendo install base" combining Wii U and 3DS sales is nonsense. It's as meaningless as "Sony install base" combining PS4 and Vita sales. Install base measures the size of the potential customer pool for software sales. Two distinct systems with different development processes and software libraries have no business being mushed together into one "install base" pool. Hell, the install base of a single platform is only indirectly related to its total hardware sales, since systems like the 3DS have multiple models and people often buy a second or third one. 3 console sales to the same person does not represent 3 separate customers.

Put into a simple example, Wii sold 100 million and Mario Galaxy sold over 10 million. 3DS sold 65 million and 3D Land sold over 10 million. Wii U sold 13 million and 3D World struggled to sell 5 million even with bundles. Odyssey is only one game, it didn't cost twice as much to make just because the platform is now a hybrid. The benefit is that the team who makes it can then make a second game for the same flourishing platform instead of having to support a failing platform that has no hope of producing a sales success.

But according to your sig as recently as a few weeks ago you predicted 20 million sales for the Switch over 3 years so I can see why you would bend over backwards to move those goalposts.

I got that from 2 gens before NS (Wii + DS) just like the 150M (PS2) is from 2 gens before PS4. Sure PS3 and WiiU were disappointments. But even those shouldn't be erased from comparisons.

As for the rest, so much talk and no real (on-topic) substance. Those factors apply to any console, hybrid or not. The point is, if (and only if) NS also replaces 3DS, it makes no sense to compare its sales to the previous home consoles. Summing up console + handheld might be a bit unfair (due to overlap) but to disregard handheld completely would be ultra unfair.

Regarding my sig, I still believe it will be only 20M for the simple reason that I'm not expecting NS to replace 3DS. All my reasoning in this tread has been assuming the opposite and in that sense 80M won't represent a success. If Nintendo launches a new handheld soon and NS sells 80M anyway, then I will consider it a clear success.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 said:

Regarding my sig, I still believe it will be only 20M for the simple reason that I'm not expecting NS to replace 3DS. All my reasoning in this tread has been assuming the opposite and in that sense 80M won't represent a success. If Nintendo launches a new handheld soon and NS sells 80M anyway, then I will consider it a clear success.

Are you really going to stick by that prediction? You are starting to sound like a negative version of Johnlucas!



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"

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Nothing worth responding to there.



Zod95 said:
zorg1000 said:

when you factor in the overlap of people who purchase both a handheld & home console each generation and now only need to buy a single device than yes 80 million is a good number.

regardless i dont consider something a success based solely on hardware numbers things like software sales & profit have to be taken into account as well. if Nintendo sells 80 million units of Switch over the course of 5-6 years, sells a few hundred million units of 1st party software, a few hundred million units of 3rd party software and makes the company a few billion dollars in profit than yes it would undeniably be a success.

Let's just consider that SW sales and profits are proportional to HW sales. 80M is what Nintendo made last gen while crying in agony. How's that going to be a success this gen?

Don't take me wrong. I believe (because NS can overlap clients from 2 shrinking markets) that 80M is ok. But to call it a success? No way.

im not going to consider that because its not true, SW sales & profit are not proportional to HW sales.

There are many ways Nintendo can be more profitable despite lower hardware sales.

1. Selling hardware at a profit. 3DS was sold at a loss for a full year after the initial big price cut and Wii U was sold at a loss for the majority of its life. This was one of the main reasons they posted losses for a few fiscal years.

2. Streamlined development. They just recently completed the merging of their various software teams and are now working together in a single building. On top of that, developing and creating games/engines for a single platform is more cost/time efficient than developing for two seperate platforms.

3. Reduced hardware R&D costs. Just like with software, Nintendo has merged their hardware teams together and for Switch they abandoned using an exotic chipset and opted for a much more modern and less customized design.

4. Increased 1st party software sales. With a single unified platform all of Nintendo's games will be available to their full audience unlike previous generations. For example, Wii U accounts for less than 20% of their overall hardware sales last generation, that means games exclusive to Wii U were unable to sell to their full potential. Same with 3DS but to a much smaller extent.

5. Increased 3rd party support. Wii U & 3DS did not have support of some of the major 3rd party game engines. Wii U had poor sales resulting in lack of support. 3DS on the other hand had a sizeable install base but did not have support of the major game engines such as Unity or Unreal. Switch having support of the major game engines along with a sizeable install base leads to a higher chance of strong support resulting in higher revenue from 3rd party royalties.

6. Online subscription service. Nintendo is set to release their own paid subscription service for online games. This likely wont make a huge difference right away but in a few years Nintendo could have tens of millions of subscribers. Lets say three years from now Nintendo has 20 million subscribers at $30, thats $600 million in revenue in a single year.

7. Increased digital sales. Nintendo in the last few years has embraced selling games digitally along with DLC. These things have a higher profit margin than physical sales and Nintendo is likely to continue moving in this direction.

8. Increased accessory sales. Unlike 3DS, Switch does not have a clamshell design so things like screen protectors and carrying cases are far more needed. Extra controllers is another big one, Wii U had a low install base meaning a low number of people looking to buy extra controllers, nevermind the fact that Wii controllers were compatible with Wii U so many Wii U owners already had multiple controllers. On top of that Switch has things like additional docks & charging grips/stands.

The combination of all these things will likely see Nintendo post far healthier profit with Switch than they did with 3DS+Wii U.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Anfebious said:
Zod95 said:

Regarding my sig, I still believe it will be only 20M for the simple reason that I'm not expecting NS to replace 3DS. All my reasoning in this tread has been assuming the opposite and in that sense 80M won't represent a success. If Nintendo launches a new handheld soon and NS sells 80M anyway, then I will consider it a clear success.

Are you really going to stick by that prediction? You are starting to sound like a negative version of Johnlucas!

If you look to the history of predictions in my signature (which I never erase) I stick to every prediction for at least a year. And I intend to continue to do so. And even when I make new predictions, I tend not to deviate far away from the previous ones.

My predictions come from macro-analysis and they are for long periods of time. Some of them are bold but sometimes they are actually more right than the thinking in vogue at the time. Like X1 selling 70% of PS4 when both were perfoming similar and X1 had more margin to lower the price + Halo yet to come. Like the WiiU selling 25M when most people were pointing to 80M-100M. Like X1 selling 40M when today people think that's an incredibly low number. And now the Switch, where no one is sharing my view at the moment but some months/years later that can be common sense.

...Or I'm wrong and then I failed at my analysis. I will be here with my signature intact to accept the mistake. I'm not Johnlucas, who makes insane predictions with no basis and then runs when things get sour. Then it's cheap to be crazy. Try to do what I do and then you'll feel the burden that makes you to be as neutral and rigorous as possible.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

zorg1000 said:
Zod95 said:

Let's just consider that SW sales and profits are proportional to HW sales. 80M is what Nintendo made last gen while crying in agony. How's that going to be a success this gen?

Don't take me wrong. I believe (because NS can overlap clients from 2 shrinking markets) that 80M is ok. But to call it a success? No way.

im not going to consider that because its not true, SW sales & profit are not proportional to HW sales.

There are many ways Nintendo can be more profitable despite lower hardware sales.

1. Selling hardware at a profit. 3DS was sold at a loss for a full year after the initial big price cut and Wii U was sold at a loss for the majority of its life. This was one of the main reasons they posted losses for a few fiscal years.

2. Streamlined development. They just recently completed the merging of their various software teams and are now working together in a single building. On top of that, developing and creating games/engines for a single platform is more cost/time efficient than developing for two seperate platforms.

3. Reduced hardware R&D costs. Just like with software, Nintendo has merged their hardware teams together and for Switch they abandoned using an exotic chipset and opted for a much more modern and less customized design.

4. Increased 1st party software sales. With a single unified platform all of Nintendo's games will be available to their full audience unlike previous generations. For example, Wii U accounts for less than 20% of their overall hardware sales last generation, that means games exclusive to Wii U were unable to sell to their full potential. Same with 3DS but to a much smaller extent.

5. Increased 3rd party support. Wii U & 3DS did not have support of some of the major 3rd party game engines. Wii U had poor sales resulting in lack of support. 3DS on the other hand had a sizeable install base but did not have support of the major game engines such as Unity or Unreal. Switch having support of the major game engines along with a sizeable install base leads to a higher chance of strong support resulting in higher revenue from 3rd party royalties.

6. Online subscription service. Nintendo is set to release their own paid subscription service for online games. This likely wont make a huge difference right away but in a few years Nintendo could have tens of millions of subscribers. Lets say three years from now Nintendo has 20 million subscribers at $30, thats $600 million in revenue in a single year.

7. Increased digital sales. Nintendo in the last few years has embraced selling games digitally along with DLC. These things have a higher profit margin than physical sales and Nintendo is likely to continue moving in this direction.

8. Increased accessory sales. Unlike 3DS, Switch does not have a clamshell design so things like screen protectors and carrying cases are far more needed. Extra controllers is another big one, Wii U had a low install base meaning a low number of people looking to buy extra controllers, nevermind the fact that Wii controllers were compatible with Wii U so many Wii U owners already had multiple controllers. On top of that Switch has things like additional docks & charging grips/stands.

The combination of all these things will likely see Nintendo post far healthier profit with Switch than they did with 3DS+Wii U.

Ok, I get you. If everything turns out and you say, you may have a point. But, even still, it will be a small success.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 said:
Anfebious said:

Are you really going to stick by that prediction? You are starting to sound like a negative version of Johnlucas!

If you look to the history of predictions in my signature (which I never erase) I stick to every prediction for at least a year. And I intend to continue to do so. And even when I make new predictions, I tend not to deviate far away from the previous ones.

My predictions come from macro-analysis and they are for long periods of time. Some of them are bold but sometimes they are actually more right than the thinking in vogue at the time. Like X1 selling 70% of PS4 when both were perfoming similar and X1 had more margin to lower the price + Halo yet to come. Like the WiiU selling 25M when most people were pointing to 80M-100M. Like X1 selling 40M when today people think that's an incredibly low number. And now the Switch, where no one is sharing my view at the moment but some months/years later that can be common sense.

...Or I'm wrong and then I failed at my analysis. I will be here with my signature intact to accept the mistake. I'm not Johnlucas, who makes insane predictions with no basis and then runs when things get sour. Then it's cheap to be crazy. Try to do what I do and then you'll feel the burden that makes you to be as neutral and rigorous as possible.

Your prediction for the Switch looks just as crazy as johnlucas prediction (200M) for the Wii U to me, just wanted to point that out.

 



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"