Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018? | |||
| Sony (by more than 3m) | 260 | 27.84% | |
| Sony (between 2-3m more) | 52 | 5.57% | |
| Sony (between 1-2m more) | 73 | 7.82% | |
| Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) | 133 | 14.24% | |
| Nintendo (between 1-2m more) | 150 | 16.06% | |
| Nintendo (between 2-3m more) | 59 | 6.32% | |
| Nintendo (by more than 3m) | 104 | 11.13% | |
| Microsoft (seriously) | 15 | 1.61% | |
| Microsoft (for the lulz) | 30 | 3.21% | |
| Scoreboard | 58 | 6.21% | |
| Total: | 934 | ||
I am confused.
This prediction is PS4 vs Switch+3DS?
| Intrinsic said: I am confused. This prediction is PS4 vs Switch+3DS? |
No, its Nintendo vs Sony so NSW/3DS vs PS4/Vita.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
Louie said:
The Japanese sales numbers and all the stuff I wrote in the post before. I know you'll tell me it's premature and that's fine, but again Labo is not a blue ocean product, not disruptive, and didn't sell that well in Japan despite getting a big marketing push. |
You're not explaining anything though, you are basically just repeating yourself without giving any context.
If a video game where you build cardboard creations for engineering/programming purposes isnt a blue ocean game than i dont know what is.
Labo did sell well in Japan, ~120k first week and reports are saying it looks like it will have a soft drop in week 2 and week 3 is a consumer holiday. In other words it will likely double or even triple its FW sales by the end of week 3.
So yeah i think your statements are based on a whole lot of nothing.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
As a Nintendo fan, I don’t think it’s correct to add 3DS to Switch hardware - they’re two separate platforms: 3DS sales are NOT helping the Switch. True, they are all Nintendo hardware sales, but one 3DS is NOT worth as much as a Switch for hardware revenue, and nowhere near as much for software revenue - 3DS has a low tie-in and software is lower value. A Switch and PS4 will likely sell similar amounts of software, on the other hand - even the “casual” Wii sold similar software to PS3, and usually the value of the software was higher since A. Nintendo rarely dropped software prices and B) games generally cost more to begin with, as Wii had a lot of software that came with expensive accessories - Wii Fit for example. So Nintendo generated A LOT more revenue and profit than Sony did that generation. Handhelds have been good money for Nintendo, but Nintendo with a strong home console does better. DS, as big as it was, is not where Nintendo got its billions.
Switch, while I want it to be like the wii days, it’s just not there yet. Right now, it’s probably on its way. 69M pieces of software for year 1 is quite good. Next year could be 200M!
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
|
Why do you think Switch estimations are too optimistic? Switch already have Smash Bros for this year and that definitely isn't only strong heavy hitter for this FY, we could easily have Pokemon for instance in November (with combination Smash + Pokemon Switch would easily hit 20m) and maybe even Animal Crossing in March. Actuayl Nintendo was quite conservative with Switch estimations from launch, its very posible that even this 20m are conservative. |
Im based on 17 FY. We had 3 10+ million-ish potential games (MK8D, odyssey and splatoon) and Nintendo shipped 15 million switches.
For now, in 18 we only have 1 (smash).
Of course momentum will keep it above 17, but if only smash among the 10+ million games(or no price cut), I hardly see 20M.
But if pokemon is ready, I give it to you.
Miyamotoo said:
In Nintendo case shipment means sales at end. https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html |
No, it doesn’t.
jonathanalis said:
Im based on 17 FY. We had 3 10+ million-ish potential games (MK8D, odyssey and splatoon) and Nintendo shipped 15 million switches. For now, in 18 we only have 1 (smash). Of course momentum will keep it above 17, but if only smash among the 10+ million games(or no price cut), I hardly see 20M. But if pokemon is ready, I give it to you. |
But last year Switch had huge stock problem and Switch would sell even more whitout stock problems, this year Switch dont have those problems and only in Q1 of this calendar year with weak Q1 lineup Nintendo shipped 3m units, from late April through July lineup is much stronger (thats actualy Q1 of FY2018.).
Smash Bros will definitely not be only one huge system seller game in current FY 2018. lineup, they definitely have more announcements for FY 2018. I can bet that we definatly getting Pokemon or Animal Crossing (smaller chanches that we could have both in FY 2018.).
Lawlight said:
No, it doesn’t. |
But it does, look at link, those all numbers for each hardware are shipped aka sold units at end.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html
Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 30 April 2018
| zorg1000 said: You're not explaining anything though, you are basically just repeating yourself without giving any context. If a video game where you build cardboard creations for engineering/programming purposes isnt a blue ocean game than i dont know what is. Labo did sell well in Japan, ~120k first week and reports are saying it looks like it will have a soft drop in week 2 and week 3 is a consumer holiday. In other words it will likely double or even triple its FW sales by the end of week 3.
So yeah i think your statements are based on a whole lot of nothing. |
What kind of context do you want exactly? I guess it's about my "the market didn't respond well to Labo" statement, in which case let me change it to this: The Japanese market didn't respond well to Labo factoring in the huge marketing push Nintendo gave it and, using the theoretical framework of Blue Ocean Products and disruptive Technology, I doubt Labo will fare much better in the long run worldwide. Does that sound better to you?
Labo is not Blue Ocean just because it mixes cardboard and games! Blue Ocean products create new markets (Labo isn't a new market, it just added something to an already existing toy concept - it's more a sustaining innovation), they are developed to avoid the competition (Nintendo isn't avoiding Sony and Microsoft with this one - it's just a single game that caters to an already existing market of products for kids), they create a new kind of demand (like the DS, which dramatically increased the pool of people interested in buying games with Nintendogs, Brain Training, etc. Labo doesn't do that, it just wants to have some of the kids toys cake), they dramatically change the expenses:profits formula for a company (the DS did that: bad and cheap graphics compared to the PSP, but created a new market and because of the weak CPU the hardware business made insane amounts of money for Nintendo, a novum in the market) and lastly the blue ocean strategy changes the direction of the whole company toward low costs and differentiation. Labo doesn't do that in the slightest, it's just a product that mixes cardboard and mini games and won't do anything for the Switch's direction in the long run.
Lastly, hey you could be right about Labo selling well over the long run, that's absolutely true. But my statements are certainly not based on nothing. If Labo sells well for the next year (without the big marketing push it's getting right now) then that's cool and I'll admit to being wrong. But the first week sales certainly haven't been as big as Nintendo expected - you don't flood Japan's stores with advertisements (and hire Bill Nye in the west) for 120k sales in Japan of two different Labo products combined.
Edit: And we have news that Labo only sold through 30% of its initial shipment in Japan (which would put the shipment at about 400k units). Clearly Nintendo, a company that is often conservative with its shipments (Switch, SNES Mini, Wii...), expected more of this.
Last edited by Louie - on 30 April 2018
Miyamotoo said:
But last year Switch had huge stock problem and Switch would sell even more whitout stock problems, this year Switch dont have those problems and only in Q1 of this calendar year with weak Q1 lineup Nintendo shipped 3m units, from late April through July lineup is much stronger (thats actualy Q1 of FY2018.). Smash Bros will definitely not be only one huge system seller game in current FY 2018. lineup, they definitely have more announcements for FY 2018. I can bet that we definatly getting Pokemon or Animal Crossing (smaller chanches that we could have both in FY 2018.).
But it does, look at link, those all numbers for each hardware are shipped aka sold units at end. https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html |
shipped is sold for nintendo, but sold through = more sales for nintendo, because they would shipping way more, so there is a huge difference. as for the other comment last year nintendo could shipped 4 million easy they just didn't have the stock because of launch demand.
Louie said:
What kind of context do you want exactly? I guess it's about my "the market didn't respond well to Labo" statement, in which case let me change it to this: The Japanese market didn't respond well to Labo factoring in the huge marketing push Nintendo gave it and, using the theoretical framework of Blue Ocean Products and disruptive Technology, I doubt Labo will fare much better in the long run worldwide. Does that sound better to you? Labo is not Blue Ocean just because it mixes cardboard and games! Blue Ocean products create new markets (Labo isn't a new market, it just added something to an already existing toy concept - it's more a sustaining innovation), they are developed to avoid the competition (Nintendo isn't avoiding Sony and Microsoft with this one - it's just a single game that caters to an already existing market of products for kids), they create a new kind of demand (like the DS, which dramatically increased the pool of people interested in buying games with Nintendogs, Brain Training, etc. Labo doesn't do that, it just wants to have some of the kids toys cake), they dramatically change the expenses:profits formula for a company (the DS did that: bad and cheap graphics compared to the PSP, but created a new market and because of the weak CPU the hardware business made insane amounts of money for Nintendo, a novum in the market) and lastly the blue ocean strategy changes the direction of the whole company toward low costs and differentiation. Labo doesn't do that in the slightest, it's just a product that mixes cardboard and mini games and won't do anything for the Switch's direction in the long run. Lastly, hey you could be right about Labo selling well over the long run, that's absolutely true. But my statements are certainly not based on nothing. If Labo sells well for the next year (without the big marketing push it's getting right now) then that's cool and I'll admit to being wrong. But the first week sales certainly haven't been as big as Nintendo expected - you don't flood Japan's stores with advertisements (and hire Bill Nye in the west) for 120k sales in Japan of two different Labo products combined. Edit: And we have news that Labo only sold through 30% of its initial shipment in Japan (which would put the shipment at about 400k units). Clearly Nintendo, a company that is often conservative with its shipments (Switch, SNES Mini, Wii...), expected more of this. |
How often do Blue Ocean Products start out with massive sales right off the bat? Or how about new IPs aimed at kids/family/casual gamers in general?
GB Pokémon Red / Green / Blue FW 140.074 / LTD 7.936.360
NDS Tomodachi Collection FW 100.371 / LTD 3.692.859
3DS Yo-kai Watch FW 52.901 / LTD 1.332.971
NDS Style Savvy FW 86.446 / LTD 891.076
PS1 Monster Farm FW 60.876 / LTD 729.063
NDS Inazuma Eleven FW 41.458 / LTD 401.820
NDS Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day! 44.166 / 3.847.136 Nintendo 19/05/2005
WII Wii Sports 176.880 / 3.724.565 Nintendo 02/12/2006
WII Wii Fit 254.009 / 3.561.787 Nintendo 01/12/2007
NDS Nintendogs: Labrador / Dachshund / Chihuahua & Friends 135.674 / 2.080.644 Nintendo 21/04/2005
WII Wii Play 171.888 / 2.804.201 Nintendo 02/12/2006
WII Wii Party 223.595 / 2.389.549 Nintendo 08/07/2010
Its not uncommon for games aimed at kids/families/casuals to sell 10-20x their FW sales.
As for the 30% sell-through, Golden Week started like 8 days after Labo launched, clearly retailers wanted to have plenty of stock for the holidays.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
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