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Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 260 27.84%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 52 5.57%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 73 7.82%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 133 14.24%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 150 16.06%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 59 6.32%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 104 11.13%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 15 1.61%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 30 3.21%
 
Scoreboard 58 6.21%
 
Total:934
Teeqoz said:
Teeqoz said:
I remember this thread. If I remember right I think I voted for a virtual tie, or perhaps a Sony win by 1-2 million.

In hindsight, a virtual tie still seems pretty likely, or perhaps a Nintendo win by 1-2 million. What surprises me the most though is the 3DS. How Nintendo managed to ship 1.9 million of the 3DS in this quarter baffles me. Do that many people still want the 3DS?

The 3DS shipments still baffle me. The moderate decline in hardware sales hasn't sustained an equally moderate decline in software sales. Are people just grabbing 2DS XLs for cheap and then buy two-three games?

A notable portion of late adopter territory consists of parents buying their kids their first video game system, so one or two games are deemed sufficient and the overall tie ratio suffers. Nintendo has a breakdown of SKU shipments in their financial report. Only three models are left, of which the New Nintendo 3DS XL saw a big drop year over year (down over 50%), the 2DS only a minor drop (down 20%, perfectly positioned as kid's first video game system) and the New 2DS XL was introduced this fiscal year. I'd say the New 2DS XL is cutting into sales of the New 3DS XL. Late adopters who are not kids are usually price-conscious and don't mind buying used games from various sources, that's another reason why software sales decline sharper than hardware sales.

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 02 February 2018

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Johnw1104 said:
Teeqoz said:

The 3DS shipments still baffle me. The moderate decline in hardware sales hasn't sustained an equally moderate decline in software sales. Are people just grabbing 2DS XLs for cheap and then buy two-three games?

Did they clarify anywhere which models were selling? The New 2DS XL is fairly inexpensive and otherwise pretty cool... I know they've said it's still being purchased for young kids (it's certainly durable enough to warrant that), so maybe that 2DS version that's extremely cheap is also still selling?

Really, though, it just seems like there's a huge spike in hardware sales every time there's a new Pokemon game (even if it's barely "new"). There's not much reason for Nintendo to abandon the platform, so it will probably be around longer than most assumed.

Out of the 5.86 million total shipped so far this fiscal year, 2.45 million were NN2DS XLs, 1.77 million were N2DSs, and 1.63 million were NN3DSXLs.

I'm still expecting 3DS hardware to plunge on 2018. The ever decreasing software sales make it inevitable. We only have four weeks of Media Create, but so far, the 3DS is down 50% over last year. And this year it won't have Dragon Quest or Pokemon to help it either.

Basically, I think the release of the 2DSXL managed to postpone the collapse in 3DS hardware sales by a year, but it'll happen this year instead.



Johnw1104 said:
Teeqoz said:

The 3DS shipments still baffle me. The moderate decline in hardware sales hasn't sustained an equally moderate decline in software sales. Are people just grabbing 2DS XLs for cheap and then buy two-three games?

Did they clarify anywhere which models were selling? The New 2DS XL is fairly inexpensive and otherwise pretty cool... I know they've said it's still being purchased for young kids (it's certainly durable enough to warrant that), so maybe that 2DS version that's extremely cheap is also still selling?

Really, though, it just seems like there's a huge spike in hardware sales every time there's a new Pokemon game (even if it's barely "new"). There's not much reason for Nintendo to abandon the platform, so it will probably be around longer than most assumed.

Yes, they always do a breakdown by model.

New 3DS XL-1.63m (down from 3.53m)

2DS-1.77m (down from 2.17m)

New 2DS XL-2.45m

Total-5.86m (down from 6.45m)

 

Software-31.25m (down from 46.78m)

 

Based on the big drop in software but stable hardware, I would say the majority of hardware sales come from 2 groups.

1. Young kids getting their first handheld and only getting a couple games

2. People who already own a 3DS and just buying the new model



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

They also sold 4 million SNES MINI's, so they have a huge lead.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

Alkibiádēs said:
They also sold 4 million SNES MINI's, so they have a huge lead.

The SNES Mini does not count.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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Teeqoz said:
Johnw1104 said:

Did they clarify anywhere which models were selling? The New 2DS XL is fairly inexpensive and otherwise pretty cool... I know they've said it's still being purchased for young kids (it's certainly durable enough to warrant that), so maybe that 2DS version that's extremely cheap is also still selling?

Really, though, it just seems like there's a huge spike in hardware sales every time there's a new Pokemon game (even if it's barely "new"). There's not much reason for Nintendo to abandon the platform, so it will probably be around longer than most assumed.

Out of the 5.86 million total shipped so far this fiscal year, 2.45 million were NN2DS XLs, 1.77 million were N2DSs, and 1.63 million were NN3DSXLs.

I'm still expecting 3DS hardware to plunge on 2018. The ever decreasing software sales make it inevitable. We only have four weeks of Media Create, but so far, the 3DS is down 50% over last year. And this year it won't have Dragon Quest or Pokemon to help it either.

Basically, I think the release of the 2DSXL managed to postpone the collapse in 3DS hardware sales by a year, but it'll happen this year instead.

Looks like a reasonable prediction. At least in Japan 3DS should have a big drop. In the west it may still surprise, right now 2DS and 2DS XL looks still strong, but i still expect a big YOY drop.



Ryng_Tolu said:
I can see Nintendo ship 3 million 3DS next quarter, and then 700k in Q1 2018, for a total of over 6.5 million 3DS for the quarter, while Switch i think they will ship 7.5 million next quarter and 3.5 million in Q1 2018 for a total of almost 16 million.

For PS4 i can see something like 9 million this quarter and then 2.5 million in Q1 2018, so i think Sony prediction of 19 million is very spot on, but i would not be surprised if they ship more than that in the end (like 20 million, as they did last FY). Even so, i really don't see PS4 ship more than Switch and 3DS combined for the next 2 quarters...

They will both have an amazing FY, that's for sure, both will do better than the original expectation, expecially Nintendo.

HOLY SHIT. My predictions were super spot on LMAO.

Switch - 7.24 million (-4%)
3DS - 3.01 millin (+0%)
PS4 - 9.00 million (perfect)

 

For the next quarter my PS4 prediction (2.5 million) remain the same. Huuum, maybe i'll increase it to 2.6 million... Monster Hunter World did better than expect, and it boosted Japan sales a lot in January. But as for now i'm stick with 2.5 million to match Sony 19 million prediction for the Fiscal Year, which looks very realistic.

 

For 3DS, i increase my prediction to 800k, 3DS really surprised me this holiday, while Switch i'll decrease it to 3 million, i thought at this point Nintendo would have been ready with the stock... but there are still stock issues, expecially in Japan.



Ouya gonna make a comeback and upset both of them, just you watch



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Teeqoz said:

Basically, I think the release of the 2DSXL managed to postpone the collapse in 3DS hardware sales by a year, but it'll happen this year instead.

Its funny because 2016 was supposed to have a collapse then Pokemon Go came along and postponed it.

Then 2017 was supposed to have a collapse then New 2DS XL came along and postponed it.

Now we are saying 2018 will have a collapse.

I wonder what will postpone it this time



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: February 2nd, 2018

Both Sony and Nintendo have announced their latest shipment figures.

Sony: 9.0m PS4s this quarter, YTD is 16.5m.
Nintendo: 7.23m Switch units this quarter, YTD is 12.12m. 3.00m 3DS units this quarter, YTD is 5.86m. Total: 17.98m.

Nintendo expanded their previous lead of 0.25m to 1.48m. Furthermore, Nintendo increased their forecasts for both Switch and 3DS while Sony's PS4 forecast remained flat.

Sony: 19m PS4s projected for the current fiscal year.
Nintendo: 15m for Switch, up by 1m. 6.4m for 3DS, up by 0.4m. Total: 21.4m.

With a projected lead of 2.4m units based on known data, the PS4 having a comfortable bar to surpass (only needs to ship 2.5m in fiscal Q4) and factoring in PlayStation Vita at ~500k, things are now pointing to a Nintendo win by 1-2m. Since the accuracy of forecasts is very high with only three months left to go in the fiscal year, the probability of a different result is rather low. It looks like Sony's most successful run against Nintendo is coming to an end as Nintendo returns to the #1 position in the video game hardware business.

The user StarDoor has collected all historical data and made estimates for the periods that necessitated it.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230847

Sony has won four years in a row which marks their longest streak in history. Overall, they beat Nintendo only seven times in 23 qualifying fiscal years, so the recent past hasn't been anywhere close to the norm of the Sony vs. Nintendo battle. Fiscal year 2016 saw Sony win by ~11.5m units which constituted their biggest margin of victory in history. Now only one year after setting such a record, it looks like they'll be back to losing again.

Lastly, here's another snapshot of the poll.

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 250 28.18%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 50 5.64%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 67 7.55%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 131 14.77%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 144 16.23%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 51 5.75%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 95 10.71%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 15 1.69%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 28 3.16%
 
Scoreboard 56 6.31%
 
Total: 887

Almost 250 additional votes were casted since the last update that shifted the forecasts of Sony and Nintendo from a Sony win by 2-3m to a virtual tie. The option "Sony by more than 3m" lost three percent points, "Virtually tied" gained one, "Nintendo by 1-2m" gained three, "Nintendo by 2-3m" gained one, "Nintendo by more than 3m" lost one. So overall the results were shifting closer to the eventual reality which is an encouraging sign for the VGC community.

Are we certain that Vita only ships to Japan basically? Obviously very little info on vita and if shipments ended in some countries or not.

It's 250k sold in Japan for first 3 quarters so at least ~300k shipped. Jan so far only has 24k, Feb and March will be similar so around ~320k sold and ~400k shipped and you give it 100k more than that for everything else.