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Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 260 27.84%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 52 5.57%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 73 7.82%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 133 14.24%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 150 16.06%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 59 6.32%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 104 11.13%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 15 1.61%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 30 3.21%
 
Scoreboard 58 6.21%
 
Total:934
Lawlight said:
LimaBean01 said:

Sigh... yep. And if Nintendo doesn’t win we will never hear the end of it lol.

If? I don't think anyone thinks the Switch will win. Also, the PS4 already won against the WiiU. Nobody banged on about how Nintendo lost.

Again... talking about overall sales rather than switch vs PS4.



Bet with flashfire926: I think switch will win November NPD, and he thinks xbox one will win (if ps4 is victorious, it's a draw). Loser has to state that they lost in the signature for some time.

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LimaBean01 said:
Lawlight said:

If? I don't think anyone thinks the Switch will win. Also, the PS4 already won against the WiiU. Nobody banged on about how Nintendo lost.

Again... talking about overall sales rather than switch vs PS4.

So, 2 systems vs 1?



Lawlight said:
LimaBean01 said:

Again... talking about overall sales rather than switch vs PS4.

So, 2 systems vs 1?

I'm sure Rol would include the Vita if Sony had the balls to reveal numbers.



p0isonparadise said:
Lawlight said:

So, 2 systems vs 1?

I'm sure Rol would include the Vita if Sony had the balls to reveal numbers.

I think he should include Sony’s phones in there as well while he’s at it.



Lawlight said:
p0isonparadise said:

I'm sure Rol would include the Vita if Sony had the balls to reveal numbers.

I think he should include Sony’s phones in there as well while he’s at it.

That sounds like a good idea, but a community consultation should be made first. Set up a separate thread with a poll to ask if phones should be counted towards console sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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personally i think phones don't fall under the 'dedicated gaming console' title, but maybe that is just me.



Bet with flashfire926: I think switch will win November NPD, and he thinks xbox one will win (if ps4 is victorious, it's a draw). Loser has to state that they lost in the signature for some time.

UPDATE: February 2nd, 2018

Both Sony and Nintendo have announced their latest shipment figures.

Sony: 9.0m PS4s this quarter, YTD is 16.5m.
Nintendo: 7.23m Switch units this quarter, YTD is 12.12m. 3.00m 3DS units this quarter, YTD is 5.86m. Total: 17.98m.

Nintendo expanded their previous lead of 0.25m to 1.48m. Furthermore, Nintendo increased their forecasts for both Switch and 3DS while Sony's PS4 forecast remained flat.

Sony: 19m PS4s projected for the current fiscal year.
Nintendo: 15m for Switch, up by 1m. 6.4m for 3DS, up by 0.4m. Total: 21.4m.

With a projected lead of 2.4m units based on known data, the PS4 having a comfortable bar to surpass (only needs to ship 2.5m in fiscal Q4) and factoring in PlayStation Vita at ~500k, things are now pointing to a Nintendo win by 1-2m. Since the accuracy of forecasts is very high with only three months left to go in the fiscal year, the probability of a different result is rather low. It looks like Sony's most successful run against Nintendo is coming to an end as Nintendo returns to the #1 position in the video game hardware business.

The user StarDoor has collected all historical data and made estimates for the periods that necessitated it.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230847

Sony has won four years in a row which marks their longest streak in history. Overall, they beat Nintendo only seven times in 23 qualifying fiscal years, so the recent past hasn't been anywhere close to the norm of the Sony vs. Nintendo battle. Fiscal year 2016 saw Sony win by ~11.5m units which constituted their biggest margin of victory in history. Now only one year after setting such a record, it looks like they'll be back to losing again.

Lastly, here's another snapshot of the poll.

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 250 28.18%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 50 5.64%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 67 7.55%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 131 14.77%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 144 16.23%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 51 5.75%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 95 10.71%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 15 1.69%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 28 3.16%
 
Scoreboard 56 6.31%
 
Total: 887

Almost 250 additional votes were casted since the last update that shifted the forecasts of Sony and Nintendo from a Sony win by 2-3m to a virtual tie. The option "Sony by more than 3m" lost three percent points, "Virtually tied" gained one, "Nintendo by 1-2m" gained three, "Nintendo by 2-3m" gained one, "Nintendo by more than 3m" lost one. So overall the results were shifting closer to the eventual reality which is an encouraging sign for the VGC community.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Teeqoz said:
I remember this thread. If I remember right I think I voted for a virtual tie, or perhaps a Sony win by 1-2 million.

In hindsight, a virtual tie still seems pretty likely, or perhaps a Nintendo win by 1-2 million. What surprises me the most though is the 3DS. How Nintendo managed to ship 1.9 million of the 3DS in this quarter baffles me. Do that many people still want the 3DS?

The 3DS shipments still baffle me. The moderate decline in hardware sales hasn't sustained an equally moderate decline in software sales. Are people just grabbing 2DS XLs for cheap and then buy two-three games?



Teeqoz said:
Teeqoz said:
I remember this thread. If I remember right I think I voted for a virtual tie, or perhaps a Sony win by 1-2 million.

In hindsight, a virtual tie still seems pretty likely, or perhaps a Nintendo win by 1-2 million. What surprises me the most though is the 3DS. How Nintendo managed to ship 1.9 million of the 3DS in this quarter baffles me. Do that many people still want the 3DS?

The 3DS shipments still baffle me. The moderate decline in hardware sales hasn't sustained an equally moderate decline in software sales. Are people just grabbing 2DS XLs for cheap and then buy two-three games?

Did they clarify anywhere which models were selling? The New 2DS XL is fairly inexpensive and otherwise pretty cool... I know they've said it's still being purchased for young kids (it's certainly durable enough to warrant that), so maybe that 2DS version that's extremely cheap is also still selling?

Really, though, it just seems like there's a huge spike in hardware sales every time there's a new Pokemon game (even if it's barely "new"). There's not much reason for Nintendo to abandon the platform, so it will probably be around longer than most assumed.



RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: February 2nd, 2018

Both Sony and Nintendo have announced their latest shipment figures.

Sony: 9.0m PS4s this quarter, YTD is 16.5m.
Nintendo: 7.23m Switch units this quarter, YTD is 12.12m. 3.00m 3DS units this quarter, YTD is 5.86m. Total: 17.98m.

Nintendo expanded their previous lead of 0.25m to 1.48m. Furthermore, Nintendo increased their forecasts for both Switch and 3DS while Sony's PS4 forecast remained flat.

Sony: 19m PS4s projected for the current fiscal year.
Nintendo: 15m for Switch, up by 1m. 6.4m for 3DS, up by 0.4m. Total: 21.4m.

With a projected lead of 2.4m units based on known data, the PS4 having a comfortable bar to surpass (only needs to ship 2.5m in fiscal Q4) and factoring in PlayStation Vita at ~500k, things are now pointing to a Nintendo win by 1-2m. Since the accuracy of forecasts is very high with only three months left to go in the fiscal year, the probability of a different result is rather low. It looks like Sony's most successful run against Nintendo is coming to an end as Nintendo returns to the #1 position in the video game hardware business.

The user StarDoor has collected all historical data and made estimates for the periods that necessitated it.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230847

Sony has won four years in a row which marks their longest streak in history. Overall, they beat Nintendo only seven times in 23 qualifying fiscal years, so the recent past hasn't been anywhere close to the norm of the Sony vs. Nintendo battle. Fiscal year 2016 saw Sony win by ~11.5m units which constituted their biggest margin of victory in history. Now only one year after setting such a record, it looks like they'll be back to losing again.

Lastly, here's another snapshot of the poll.

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 250 28.18%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 50 5.64%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 67 7.55%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 131 14.77%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 144 16.23%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 51 5.75%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 95 10.71%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 15 1.69%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 28 3.16%
 
Scoreboard 56 6.31%
 
Total: 887

Almost 250 additional votes were casted since the last update that shifted the forecasts of Sony and Nintendo from a Sony win by 2-3m to a virtual tie. The option "Sony by more than 3m" lost three percent points, "Virtually tied" gained one, "Nintendo by 1-2m" gained three, "Nintendo by 2-3m" gained one, "Nintendo by more than 3m" lost one. So overall the results were shifting closer to the eventual reality which is an encouraging sign for the VGC community.

So where in this does it tell me Nintendo is doomed?

 

Jokes aside, that's super impressive that Nintendo has rebounded so quickly, especially in what may well have been the PS4's peak year. Obviously including 3DS in that tips the scales but still a stellar showing!



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