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Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 260 27.84%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 52 5.57%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 73 7.82%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 133 14.24%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 150 16.06%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 59 6.32%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 104 11.13%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 15 1.61%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 30 3.21%
 
Scoreboard 58 6.21%
 
Total:934

Several weeks ago we had discussions about Nintendo and Sony selling totals of 700m and 500m consoles, respectively. We also had a thread that was specifically about Sony's ability to close the gap. Obviously, the gap can only be closed if Sony is #1 in the video game business. This has been the case during the last few years, but it looks like that run will come to an end, possibly already during this fiscal year.

Sony's forecast: 18m PS4s.
Nintendo's forecast: 10m Switches and 6m 3DSes for a total of 16m.

There isn't a big gap between these forecasts and Nintendo is more likely than Sony to exceed theirs. It's certainly doable for Nintendo to beat Sony, hence why I call it a realistic shot. It's by no means a given who will win and that's what makes it interesting.

My take is that the two companies will end up virtually tied if the shameful PlayStation Vita is factored in. Essentially, I expect it to be too close to make a definite call once the fiscal year is over. But that doesn't mean that it won't be fun to speculate. So let's have at it.

UPDATE: August 1st, 2017

Both Sony and Nintendo have announced their latest shipment figures.

Sony: 3.3m PS4s.
Nintendo: 1.96m for Switch, 0.96m for 3DS. Total: 2.92m.

Both companies are on track to meet their forecasts and the current gap is 0.38m in Sony's favor. Neither company has announced adjustments to their shipment forecasts, but that's the norm after fiscal Q1. The upcoming quarter has the Destiny 2 launch for Sony while Nintendo should benefit from increased Switch production as well as the launch of the New 2DS XL. It's likely that the numbers for fiscal Q2 will be similar again, so the gap isn't going to grow/close by much.

I didn't see the question from June about the SNES Mini until now, but here is the clarification: No, SNES Mini shipments will not count towards this competition.

Lastly, here are the standings of the poll at the time of this writing. Polls do not have much meaning because they can be manipulated and because there will always be some people who vote for options that they don't believe in. In the broadest sense, we have : ~45% Sony, ~14% tie, ~30% Nintendo, ~11% others.

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 170 31.89%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 32 6.00%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 41 7.69%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 74 13.88%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 65 12.20%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 27 5.07%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 65 12.20%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 9 1.69%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 15 2.81%
 
Scoreboard 35 6.57%
 
Total: 533

The most popular option by far is a clear victory for Sony which is understandable because of Nintendo's performance in recent years, but these votes assume that things stay as they have been. I consider the amount of votes for a clear Nintendo victory disturbing because that was and still is wishful thinking. A close outcome is expected by roughly one third of the voters. Compared to the posts in the thread, the pro-Nintendo votes are disproportionally high in the poll.

UPDATE: October 31st, 2017

Both Sony and Nintendo have announced their latest shipment figures.

Sony: 4.2m PS4s for the quarter, YTD of 7.5m.
Nintendo: 2.93m for Switch for the quarter, YTD 4.89m. 1.9m for 3DS, YTD 2.86m. Total: 7.75m.

Nintendo turned the 0.38m deficit from last quarter into a lead of 0.25m. Furthermore, both companies made upwards adjustments to their projected figures for the full fiscal year.

Sony: Expected to ship 19m PS4s, up by 1m.
Nintendo: Expected to ship 14m Switches, up by 4m. 3DS remains at 6m. Total: 20m.

Nintendo's forecasts started with a deficit of 2m and are now 1m ahead of Sony, so currently the numbers are pointing towards a Nintendo win by a tiny margin after Sony's Vita is factored in. If the fiscal year ended as forecasted by both companies, this would qualify as virtual tie.

Lastly, here's an updated snapshot of the poll. The previously mentioned caveats for VGC polls still apply.

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 202 31.56%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 39 6.09%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 49 7.66%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 88 13.75%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 84 13.13%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 30 4.69%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 75 11.72%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 10 1.56%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 20 3.13%
 
Scoreboard 43 6.72%
 
Total: 640

A good 100 additional votes have been casted with a very similar distribution as before. The biggest change is for the option 'Nintendo (between 1-2m more), but even that is an increase by less than one percent point compared to three months ago.

UPDATE: February 2nd, 2018

Both Sony and Nintendo have announced their latest shipment figures.

Sony: 9.0m PS4s this quarter, YTD is 16.5m.
Nintendo: 7.23m Switch units this quarter, YTD is 12.12m. 3.00m 3DS units this quarter, YTD is 5.86m. Total: 17.98m.

Nintendo expanded their previous lead of 0.25m to 1.48m. Furthermore, Nintendo increased their forecasts for both Switch and 3DS while Sony's PS4 forecast remained flat.

Sony: 19m PS4s projected for the current fiscal year.
Nintendo: 15m for Switch, up by 1m. 6.4m for 3DS, up by 0.4m. Total: 21.4m.

With a projected lead of 2.4m units based on known data, the PS4 having a comfortable bar to surpass (only needs to ship 2.5m in fiscal Q4) and factoring in PlayStation Vita at ~500k, things are now pointing to a Nintendo win by 1-2m. Since the accuracy of forecasts is very high with only three months left to go in the fiscal year, the probability of a different result is rather low. It looks like Sony's most successful run against Nintendo is coming to an end as Nintendo returns to the #1 position in the video game hardware business.

The user StarDoor has collected all historical data and made estimates for the periods that necessitated it.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=230847

Sony has won four years in a row which marks their longest streak in history. Overall, they beat Nintendo only seven times in 23 qualifying fiscal years, so the recent past hasn't been anywhere close to the norm of the Sony vs. Nintendo battle. Fiscal year 2016 saw Sony win by ~11.5m units which constituted their biggest margin of victory in history. Now only one year after setting such a record, it looks like they'll be back to losing again.

Lastly, here's another snapshot of the poll.

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 250 28.18%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 50 5.64%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 67 7.55%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 131 14.77%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 144 16.23%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 51 5.75%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 95 10.71%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 15 1.69%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 28 3.16%
 
Scoreboard 56 6.31%
 
Total: 887

Almost 250 additional votes were casted since the last update that shifted the forecasts of Sony and Nintendo from a Sony win by 2-3m to a virtual tie. The option "Sony by more than 3m" lost three percent points, "Virtually tied" gained one, "Nintendo by 1-2m" gained three, "Nintendo by 2-3m" gained one, "Nintendo by more than 3m" lost one. So overall the results were shifting closer to the eventual reality which is an encouraging sign for the VGC community.

FINAL UPDATE: April 27th, 2018

Both Sony and Nintendo have announced their results for the full fiscal year.

Sony: 19.0m PS4s, Vita undisclosed.
Nintendo: 15.05m for Switch, 6.4m for 3DS. Total: 21.45m.

In the final quarter of the fiscal year, Nintendo grew their lead of 1.48m to 2.45m before PlayStation Vita is factored in. This value of 2.45m makes it a little bit difficult to determine if Nintendo's win falls into the 1-2m range or the 2-3m range, but either way, it's certain that Nintendo is #1 again. I'll say that Nintendo's margin of victory falls into the 1-2m range, because it isn't really something that is worth fighting over and it has been a very long time since we've heard anything about Vita sales outside of Japan.

As you can tell from the headline of this update, this thread has run its course and won't receive any further updates. A year ago this was a very interesting comparison, because anything other than a Sony win was going against the majority opinion. Now there's no question anymore regarding who is the #1 in the console business, because the forecasts for the fiscal year ending March 2019 are as follows:

Sony: 16m PS4s, Vita undisclosed.
Nintendo: 20m for Switch, 4m for 3DS. Total: 24m.

That's such a big gap between forecasts that it is a foregone conclusion who will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year that started this month.

The reason why there's no new snapshot of the poll in this final update is because only 24 new votes have come in during the last three months. Those are too few votes to have a meaningful impact on the results of a poll with over 900 votes in total.

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 27 April 2018

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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These comparisons with the PS4 and Wii by both Nintendo itself and these threads keep bumming me out lol... I'm trying to enjoy the sudden burst of optimism for Nintendo's situation and everyone should be busy being grateful that they've had strong a start as they have, but instead of celebrating the very possibility of 10 million sold in a year we're instead setting historically high and nigh unreachable goals for it. It keeps forcing me to take the other side, and I don't like that lol (I understand speculation is a lot of fun though, so I'm not suggesting we should stop or anything... just wish I was on Nintendo's side in these more often :p)

The PS4 is an enormous hit; they'll be selling their old models for incredibly little throughout the year and continue to release big games for it. Obviously there's going to be more competition over the coming year with the Switch and Scorpio than its faced in an almost competition-free console environment for most of its existence (especially when compared with last gen, which was about as balanced as any in regards to console sales), but that's not very likely to slow down sales much.

I really don't see Nintendo matching that, even if you include 3DS sales. If they do, awesome, but I'd be thrilled so long as the Switch approaches 10 million.



This holiday will be big for Sony with many big third party games like Destiny 2, CoD WW2, Battlefront 2, and the rumored Far Cry 5/AC Egypt. With all these huge games I think Sony will sell 18m PS4 also lets not forget they have a good future line up with God of war , Last of us 2 etc.

As for the Switch it also has many System sellers to push it to Maybe exceed Nintendos expectations but I don't see the 3DS doing anything over 6m even with if it still has a decent lineup with Ever Oasis, Fire Eblem, Pikmin because it's pretty dated by now and will sorta compete with the Switch.

I can't see Nintendo passing the Sonys estimated sales unless they give the switch a $250 price or Pokemon. If one of the two happen then I think it will definitely happen but the way it is now probably not.



Looking at this weeks hardware the Vita is doing about 1/4 of 3DS business overall and 1/2 of the business compared to 3DS in Europe. It's still surely going to sell in the millions this year, barely i guess. Despite Europe as a whole being a bigger market than the US we take half as many Switches it seems. I can't see Nintendo beating Sony especially with the rumoured PS4 price drop coming. I would of thought it would be a comfortable win for Sony but again I'd like to see how the Switch sells after lets say 6m worldwide. It could maintain momentum or drop significantly.



Johnw1104 said:

These comparisons with the PS4 and Wii by both Nintendo itself and these threads keep bumming me out lol... I'm trying to enjoy the sudden burst of optimism for Nintendo's situation and everyone should be busy being grateful that they've had strong a start as they have, but instead of celebrating the very possibility of 10 million sold in a year we're instead setting historically high and nigh unreachable goals for it. It keeps forcing me to take the other side, and I don't like that lol (I understand speculation is a lot of fun though, so I'm not suggesting we should stop or anything... just wish I was on Nintendo's side in these more often :p)

The PS4 is an enormous hit; they'll be selling their old models for incredibly little throughout the year and continue to release big games for it. Obviously there's going to be more competition over the coming year with the Switch and Scorpio than its faced in an almost competition-free console environment for most of its existence (especially when compared with last gen, which was about as balanced as any in regards to console sales), but that's not very likely to slow down sales much.

I really don't see Nintendo matching that, even if you include 3DS sales. If they do, awesome, but I'd be thrilled so long as the Switch approaches 10 million.

So you are telling me that I should be grateful for a single piece of chocolate cake instead of celebrating that I was guaranteed to get as much chocolate cake as I can eat for the next few years.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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RolStoppable said:
Johnw1104 said:

These comparisons with the PS4 and Wii by both Nintendo itself and these threads keep bumming me out lol... I'm trying to enjoy the sudden burst of optimism for Nintendo's situation and everyone should be busy being grateful that they've had strong a start as they have, but instead of celebrating the very possibility of 10 million sold in a year we're instead setting historically high and nigh unreachable goals for it. It keeps forcing me to take the other side, and I don't like that lol (I understand speculation is a lot of fun though, so I'm not suggesting we should stop or anything... just wish I was on Nintendo's side in these more often :p)

The PS4 is an enormous hit; they'll be selling their old models for incredibly little throughout the year and continue to release big games for it. Obviously there's going to be more competition over the coming year with the Switch and Scorpio than its faced in an almost competition-free console environment for most of its existence (especially when compared with last gen, which was about as balanced as any in regards to console sales), but that's not very likely to slow down sales much.

I really don't see Nintendo matching that, even if you include 3DS sales. If they do, awesome, but I'd be thrilled so long as the Switch approaches 10 million.

So you are telling me that I should be grateful for a single piece of chocolate cake instead of celebrating that I was guaranteed as much chocolate cake as I can eat for the next few years.

Who guaranteed that? I'm not convinced your comparison makes sense lol

Otherwise, that sounds very bad for your health.



I quite honestly think 10m Switch sold is the best case scenario, but not the most likely one. I expect it to sell less.



Johnw1104 said:
RolStoppable said:

So you are telling me that I should be grateful for a single piece of chocolate cake instead of celebrating that I was guaranteed as much chocolate cake as I can eat for the next few years.

Who guaranteed that? I'm not convinced your comparison makes sense lol

Otherwise, that sounds very bad for your health.

Video game history guarantees it. There's no good reason to be worried about Switch's long term prospects.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

the original comparison was useless so this one is too by default



PS4 and Switches are flying of shelves, that´s for sure.