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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How many million sellers will the Switch have after a year?

 

How many million sellers will the Switch have after a year?

1-2. 17 3.44%
 
3-4. 63 12.75%
 
5-6. 140 28.34%
 
7-8. 120 24.29%
 
9-10. 66 13.36%
 
More than 10 million sellers. 88 17.81%
 
Total:494
Alby_da_Wolf on 07 May 2017
Mbolibombo said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
5 or 6. It could be more, but it looks like Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart and Splatoon are going to take the lion's share and leave space for a very few other million sellers this year. I could be wrong, but current sales give me this impression.

I dont know man, 5 is a bit low imo. But yeah, at thery least 5 possibly a whole lot more.

 

  • 1-2 Switch are almost there. Pretty sure it will grind itself to 1Million sells. '
  • Zelda: BotW - already confirmed
  • MK8: Confirmed
  • Splatoon 2 - Lock
  • Super Mario - Lock
That is set in stone. Then we have these games that I would give at least a chance to pass 1 million this year
  • Arms - New Nintendo IP, I'm pretty sure this will pass 1 million, would be very surprised if it did not.
  • Skyrim - dedicated fans, playing it on the go? Will get people to dip again. Nintendo is the only platform not yet exposed to Skyrim so there's possibly of a new big userbase here.
  • Minecraft - Well.. it's Minecraft.
  • Super Bomberman R - Halfway there in a month.. Could see it leg it's way to a million
  • Snipperclips - 300k in month one. I'd say it has a chance
And the Sleepers / longshots
  • Fifa 18 - could end up anywhere. Huge IP, once again trying out Nintendo.. 
  • Fire Emblem Warriors. Pretty sure it will leg itself to a million, not sure about year 1 though
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - Will become a million seller at one point.. probably not year 1 though.
  • Yooka Laylee - Just a hunch, it's so Nintendo-esque. 
  • Sonic Forces - Coul be a holiday title.. Always do well on Nintendo systems.
  • Dragon Quest XI - Depending on release date, this will sell a million with ease.. but year 1? if it releases sooner rather than later for sure.
Then we coul possibly or likely see another few first party releases from Nintendo and they are always a threat. I think 8 or so is a realistic goal

 

You bring good arguments, then this could mean either insanely high first year HW sales or insanely high first year attach rate, particularly for a portable, but very high for a home console too. Ninty must be very satisfied.   



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curl-6 on 07 May 2017
Mbolibombo said:
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - Will become a million seller at one point.. probably not year 1 though.

 

I'm not so sure; neither the Wii original nor XCX made it to a million.

Not saying it won't happen, but I don't think it's a lock.



WagnerPaiva on 07 May 2017

10



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leedlelee on 07 May 2017

Hmmm...
I think at this point we can say for sure that...
BotW...
MK8Deluxe...
Splatoon 2...
Super Mario Odyssey...
Are all as good as guaranteed...
I can't see Arms not making it to a million, but I think sneers to start promoting it sooner rather than later if they want it to be big...
Skyrim on the go could be big, but I won't go so far as to say it's definite...
1 2 Switch and Bomberman could both leg it out...
Mincraft will probably do it, as well as one or both of the Sonic games, but that will probably require some legs...
I don't think Xenoblade 2 will have the mass appeal needed to cross the million milestone...
Has anyone brought up Street Fighter???
What do we think the chances are that it could happen???



Have a nice day...

radishhead on 08 May 2017

I'm surprised everybody is putting Minecraft in their "for sure" category: haven't most people already bought Minecraft?



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Darwinianevolution on 08 May 2017
radishhead said:
I'm surprised everybody is putting Minecraft in their "for sure" category: haven't most people already bought Minecraft?

If Minecraft released today on the Virtual Boy and the Nokia NGage, it would sell a million units on each. It is that good of a seller.

Also, this will be the best portable version of Minecraft (if Mojang don't fuck the port up) so that ought to sell.



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Green098 on 08 May 2017
radishhead said:
I'm surprised everybody is putting Minecraft in their "for sure" category: haven't most people already bought Minecraft?

It was released physically on the Wii U only last summer (not even a full year from now) and it still managed to sell over million, so I think it's a given.



tbone51 on 08 May 2017

Zelda went up for both sku (wiiu by a tiny bit but still) switch version up by almost 5k. Zelda is around 540k with digital around 580k? Just between 420k-450k more to go for thar 1mil seller



Barkley on 08 May 2017

Splatoon 2, Zelda, Mario Kart and Mario Odyssey are certain, so 4 is the minimum.

But it could be anywhere from 5-8 imo.



Mbolibombo on 08 May 2017
curl-6 said:
Mbolibombo said:
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - Will become a million seller at one point.. probably not year 1 though.

 

I'm not so sure; neither the Wii original nor XCX made it to a million.

Not saying it won't happen, but I don't think it's a lock.

Hmm I was pretty sure that the first one reached a million sold.. this page says otherwise though.