10 million seems like a really conservative estimate. The 3DS managed 13.5m in FY2012, and that was with a difficult launch and Nintendo still fighting in 2 separate markets. Outside of them still having supply issues going into the holidays (which would mean Nintendo are either doing it on purpose, or either they and/or nvidea are just outright incompetent), them hitting 10m should be fairly easy.

Completely agree with you here. Honestly, unless you're marketing to like 4-9 year olds, kids don't want something that'll make them look like....well, kids By marketing to an audience in their 20s, not only will that of course cater to people in those years, but it'll also seep into those kids from 10 up, as they'd likely want things more 'cool' and 'adult'. Why do people think games like CoD are so popular with kids those age? If you're aiming for an audience around that age, marketing like you're marketing for 5 year-olds as you point out will only deter them from your product.

Zelda alone can do almost 3m consoles. (Reminder, this is March. Doesn't count April. So it's likely that they already hit over 3m this far)

So with Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey at the least... there's no way it's not not going to hit that 10m goal.

I am confused though. Was it Nintendo who said that Switch could outpace the Wii? Or was that someone else?

It was a Gamestop exec (CEO?).

Honestly, 10 Million seems like a softball intended for Nintendo to knock it out of the park.  If they really screw up on some of the upcoming softare (big delays or bad quality) then maybe.

I see lots of calls for a price cut, I don't think it's needed at all, and don't count on Nintendo to do one unless things suddenly drop off a cliff.  $100 more than PS3 or Xbox One?  Who cares?  Increase the value of the console with more great software (DS, sort of Wii) rather than decreasing the price to match a mediocre lineup (3DS, Wii U). 

Edit: Of course, I see Switch more as the true next-gen console in a race with a couple of last-gen competitors where others see it as a "Wii U replacement". 

Just keep doing what they've been doing with marketing, have a kick ass E3 that shows off big titles that'll be coming in 2018 along with the ones we already know about and want more of (Mario Odyssey), also a Splatoon 2 bundle would light Japan on fire. How bout a Mario Odyssey bundle and some sweet Black Friday deals as well.

Yep, if they start going overboard with the kids/family marketing shit they are going to get themselves into trouble. Like I said market like this:

= Good. 

Market like this:

= Bad

Nintendo needs to stay away from the above shit. I know they have a boner for the "family" concept but it always comes off "aw ... look little Johnny's game system and look dad has even stopped by to play with him". That shit just gives your brand the stench of being a toy. 

This! xD 

But remember we are talking about the sales period of FY2018 (from April 1st 2017 to March 31st 2018), that will not include the launch month sales since that was FY2017. So the road to 10 million started on April 1st not March 3rd.

Just to play devil's advocate though, in the period of FY2014 (April 1 2013-March 31 2014), Super Mario 3D World, Zelda WWHD, Pikmin 3, Lego City Undercover was not enough to convince enough consumers to purchase the Wii U at $299 (which is the price of the Switch now) to meet Nintendo's then goal of shipping 9 million units (2.72 million were actually shipped). This is one reason why I am looking at the price, more so than the line up (although with that being said, the Wii U also had confusing marketing and absolutly terrible press with regards to the system during this period; something which the Switch has not experiencedand hopefully will not experience in the future).