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Forums - Sony Discussion - Sony Reports Preliminary Profit Above Forecast on Savings

and i remember members on this site calling him a hack, lol. huge numbers for Sony. i hope they can improve their mobile division and be more profitable there. i love their phones and they are of great quality.



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VGPolyglot said:
Do some companies purposely put conservative estimates in their forecasts, so that they can over perform in their reviews?

Yes. Closer to all companies do that actually. It's not so much for the reason of over performance, but more that underperformance gets people fired in a hurry.



RolStoppable said:
VGPolyglot said:
Do some companies purposely put conservative estimates in their forecasts, so that they can over perform in their reviews?

Not really. I think people who do such a thing can face jail for manipulation of the stock market. Also, outperforming a forecast by 19% is no reason to suspect deliberate lowballing.

aLkaLiNE said:

There were many analysts saying Sony was on the verge of bankruptcy in 2012. I remember reading that they had around a ~85% chance of going bankrupt by some analysts marks. 

Edit: here's something from as late as 2014 saying they had a 78% chance of bankruptcy. The idea was widespread before the start of this gen

https://www.technobuffalo.com/2014/01/02/sony-has-78-chance-to-go-bankrupt-in-two-years-says-macroaxis/

The algorithm from your link is the sole reason why articles about possible bankruptcy were floating around. 78% probability to bite the dust within the next two years is such a ridiculous result that the algorithm needed to be dismissed to begin with. Which is what was done when such an article was posted on VGC.

Of course you might/will find some crazy people somewhere who predicted bankruptcy for Sony, but those weren't analysts. What analysts would talk about in regards to Sony was that struggling sectors of the company needed to be either corrected or shut down rather sooner than later. Hirai ended up doing that, and while Sony isn't the same company as it was a few years ago, it's definitely in a much healthier shape now.

You would have to prove malicious intent to put someone behind bars for conservatively forecasting quarterly/yearly results. As in, intent to play the stock market. There's nothing illegal in and of itself for being conservative in your estimates and Im sure that many companies do so.

And articles about Sonys bankruptcy began floating around with the PS3, well before that algorithm in my link was created and posted on the Internet. Sony as a whole lost money for nearly 10 years straight, sold off one or two huuuuge buildings, laid off tens of thousands of workers, spun off some divisions. That article isn't why everyone thought Sony was on the verge of bankruptcy. The clearly bad management from that era is the reason people thought they were going bankrupt. Articles like what I included only exasperated the idea.



RolStoppable said:
aLkaLiNE said:

You would have to prove malicious intent to put someone behind bars for conservatively forecasting quarterly/yearly results. As in, intent to play the stock market. There's nothing illegal in and of itself for being conservative in your estimates and Im sure that many companies do so.

And articles about Sonys bankruptcy began floating around with the PS3, well before that algorithm in my link was created and posted on the Internet. Sony as a whole lost money for nearly 10 years straight, sold off one or two huuuuge buildings, laid off tens of thousands of workers, spun off some divisions. That article isn't why everyone thought Sony was on the verge of bankruptcy. The clearly bad management from that era is the reason people thought they were going bankrupt. Articles like what I included only exasperated the idea.

Looks like we are in agreement regarding forecasts.

I really don't remember how prevalent articles about Sony's bankruptcy were, but articles are often opinion pieces of people who don't know much about how financials work. Limiting the potential bankruptcy of Sony to the input of analysts though, I don't recall any analysts who claimed such a thing.

The point is that it'd be really really really challenging to prove to a jury that a CEO or other high ranking official specifically wanted to twist a share price based solely on a conservative fiscal forecast (with the intent to over deliver when results are due, so they get a fluffed bonus etc etc)

 

Anyway, here's that article from 2006. It's from a business trading site that actually has a lot of clout in swaying stock prices.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/17605-why-the-playstation-3-will-bankrupt-sony

 

From around then Sony started stumbling in a lot of their branches. There's been talks of selling off various divisions through the years, that bankruptcy calculator has been doing rounds (and it's constantly being updated. I saw it hit the >80% chance around 7 years ago, the company has climbed it's way back and now sits around ~%40 chance), tons of speculation, articles every year about them being in trouble, and we saw Sony themselves making pretty big changes in the recent past. The talk has been there. I don't disagree that it's opinion, but a lot of it comes from the business sect. And you'd be hard pressed to find an analyst anywhere that would claim a company is going bankrupt before it actually happens. Claims like that, you can't really back down from and if some analyst said a company was going bankrupt but that analyst ended up being completely wrong it could ruin their career. I don't know how patcher does it.



A few years ago there was some real pessimism around these parts about Kaz's plan, especially since he was selling buildings left and right which was just short-term change an asset into cash etc.

But it seems he's legitimately done it, and I couldn't be happier.



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BraLoD said:
But I heard they were losing trillions just yesterday.

they lost so much money that the numbers they reached were the lowest numbers possible. when they reached that they reached the end of the numbers map, it glitched and put them in the other side of the map, where they make money. 

 

make sense now?



BraLoD said:
bananaking21 said:

they lost so much money that the numbers they reached were the lowest numbers possible. when they reached that they reached the end of the numbers map, it glitched and put them in the other side of the map, where they make money. 

 

make sense now?

No, but I'll take that.

So, can we agree Sony should go third party, now?

Hahaha



34 years playing games.

 



Been a bumpy road but it looks like the ship may have finally righted. Nice job, Kaz and co.



if this is true overall then jesus they must have done a good job cutting dead weight in all of the struggling divisions (phones, consumer electronics, hell even movies). 



ClassicGamingWizzz said:

Great, now I'm hard.  Thanks a lot.

@ OP

Good goind Kaz.  Now, do something about that movie business.  Like not letting SJWs control what you put out and fucking up remakes.