11m
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| gtaguidelng said: 18m 1st year and 50m LT |
I dont think you really thought those numbers through. That would give it the best first year sales ever with the worst legs ever.
Based on those numbers it would peak in the 1st or 2nd year then have an unheard of drop in sales. For example,
1st year peak
Year 1-18 million
Year 2-14 million
Year 3-10 million
Year 4-6 million
Year 5-2 million
Total-50 million
2nd year peak
Year 1-18 million
Year 2-20 million
Year 3-8 million
Year 4-3 million
Year 5-1 million
Total-50 million
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
7-9 million as a random guess but of course many factors could change this, small price drop. heavy marketing, decent bundle etc.
8.25M.
If Nintendo is smart, and do a Super Mario Odyssey Bundle for the holidays, they could sell way more than that I think.
"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."
p0isonparadise said:
I think you forgot about MK7 and Mario 3D Land were relased during the holidays in 2011. |
Oh yeah that's right. That's still a seven month gap between launch and any big games though. The same thing happened with the Wii U. It launched with NSMBU and then didn't get much of anything until Pikmin 3.
Switch on the other hand is launching with a beloved game, and will have at least 4 good games by year's end.
Cerebralbore101 said:
Oh yeah that's right. That's still a seven month gap between launch and any big games though. The same thing happened with the Wii U. It launched with NSMBU and then didn't get much of anything until Pikmin 3. Switch on the other hand is launching with a beloved game, and will have at least 4 good games by year's end. |
yep, 3DS & Wii U both had terrible post launch droughts while Switch has a steady flow when it comes to 1st party games.
3DS
March-Nintendogs+Cats, Steel Diver, Pilotwings Resort
June-Ocarina of Time 3D
September-Star Fox 64 3D
October-Pokemon Rumble Blast
November-Super Mario 3D Land
December-Mario Kart 7
Wii U
November-New Super Mario Bros U, Nintendo Land
June-Game & Wario
August-Pikmin 3
September-Wind Waker HD
October-Wii Party U
November-Super Mario 3D World
Switch
March-Breath of the Wild, 1 2 Switch
April-Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
June-ARMS
July-Splatoon 2
Autumn-Fire Emblem Warriors (likely Sept)
Holiday-Super Mario Odyssey (likely Nov)
2017-Xenoblade Chronicles 2
I could very well see Xenoblade getting delayed but Nintendo likely has at least 1 surprise for this holiday to announce at E3 (Smash Bros Deluxe?) so they cancel each other out. The overall quantity is pretty much the same between the 3 but Switch has far better pacing and arguably bigger titles.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
yep, 3DS & Wii U both had terrible post launch droughts while Switch has a steady flow when it comes to 1st party games.
3DS March-Nintendogs+Cats, Steel Diver, Pilotwings Resort June-Ocarina of Time 3D September-Star Fox 64 3D October-Pokemon Rumble Blast November-Super Mario 3D Land December-Mario Kart 7
Wii U November-New Super Mario Bros U, Nintendo Land June-Game & Wario August-Pikmin 3 September-Wind Waker HD October-Wii Party U November-Super Mario 3D World
Switch March-Breath of the Wild, 1 2 Switch April-Mario Kart 8 Deluxe June-ARMS July-Splatoon 2 Autumn-Fire Emblem Warriors (likely Sept) Holiday-Super Mario Odyssey (likely Nov) 2017-Xenoblade Chronicles 2
I could very well see Xenoblade getting delayed but Nintendo likely has at least 1 surprise for this holiday to announce at E3 (Smash Bros Deluxe?) so they cancel each other out. The overall quantity is pretty much the same between the 3 but Switch has far better pacing and arguably bigger titles. |
Not to mention all the little downloadable games they are peppering the console with over the next few months. The real question is, can Nintendo keep this pace up for 4-5 years? Or will they run out of steam in 3 years like they did with the Wii?
6 Month long game droughts are just unacceptable. Hopefully the merger between handheld, and console branches has erased that issue.
| Cerebralbore101 said: Not to mention all the little downloadable games they are peppering the console with over the next few months. The real question is, can Nintendo keep this pace up for 4-5 years? Or will they run out of steam in 3 years like they did with the Wii? 6 Month long game droughts are just unacceptable. Hopefully the merger between handheld, and console branches has erased that issue. |
I'm actually kinda anxious about what year 2 will look like with so many of their big guns htting in the first 9 months, much less year 4-5.
Don't get me wrong, frontloading the likes of Zelda, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey was absolutely the right decision, as having a barren first year is a big part of what killed Wii U, but I hope they're not blowing their load too soon and that the droughts don't start again next year.
3DS needs to die ASAP so the support it's currently getting can be transferred to the Switch.
curl-6 said:
I'm actually kinda anxious about what year 2 will look like with so many of their big guns htting in the first 9 months, much less year 4-5. Don't get me wrong, frontloading the likes of Zelda, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey was absolutely the right decision, as having a barren first year is a big part of what killed Wii U, but I hope they're not blowing their load too soon and that the droughts don't start again next year. 3DS needs to die ASAP so the support it's currently getting can be transferred to the Switch. |
Like I already wrote to you about this mather, Retros game, new Pokemon, new Animal Crossing, Next Level Games game, posible Pikmin 4, posible new 2D Mario, some new IP, posible some other Wii U/Wii ports, posible some 3rd party exclusives...all those games are posible for 2018. for Switch. Not to mentione that Switch will have stronger 3rd party support in 2018. than Wii U in any case because Wii U losed almost all 3rd party support in its 1st year, also I think that Switch will have much better 3rd party support in 2017. because more 3rd party devs will be on board, espacily Japanese ones.
Talking about 3DS, look at this list, 3DS games with reviews in 2017. until now, only 6 games.
http://www.metacritic.com/browse/games/score/metascore/year/3ds/filtered?sort=desc
Also check out this NeoGaf thread
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1361901
3DS is started losing Nintendo support and it obvious that Nintendo is focused at Switch, most likely Nintendo will completely stop supporting 3DS next year.
Miyamotoo said:
Like I already wrote to you about this mather, Retros game, new Pokemon, new Animal Crossing, Next Level Games game, posible Pikmin 4, posible new 2D Mario, some new IP, posible some other Wii U/Wii ports, posible some 3rd party exclusives...all those games are posible for 2018. for Switch. Not to mentione that Switch will have stronger 3rd party support in 2018. than Wii U in any case because Wii U losed almost all 3rd party support in its 1st year, also I think that Switch will have much better 3rd party support in 2017. because more 3rd party devs will be on board, espacily Japanese ones. Talking about 3DS, look at this list, 3DS games with reviews in 2017. until now, only 6 games. http://www.metacritic.com/browse/games/score/metascore/year/3ds/filtered?sort=desc Also check out this NeoGaf thread http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1361901 3DS is started losing Nintendo support and it obvious that Nintendo is focused at Switch, most likely Nintendo will completely stop supporting 3DS next year. |
Retro Studios is a myth, just like unicorns, global warming and the female orgasm.
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