Naisu Switch numbers.

Curious how much of a boost Mario Kart will give.

As long as there's a 2 week gap between the two it would've been fine. The whole "can't release big games together" has rarely been proven to be true. If you look at the DS it would rife with moments with 2-3 sometimes even 4 huge releases within weeks of each other which would feed off each other and everything would benefit. You get more people buying the hardware, then they buy more software, rinse and repeat. A rising tide lifts all boats. 3DS also had one of its most prosperous windows when Mario 3D Land, Monster Hunter 3G, and Mario Kart 7 all launched within several weeks of each other. 

Switch is still supply-constrained in Japan, and In two weeks MK8D arrives on Switch.

Excellent Switch performance. How many weeks until we can say the "new console honeymoon period" has worn off?

Yes, but Splatoon 2 is too big game in any case (we are probably talking about most popular game that will be on Switch). Also fact is that Switch version of DQ11 game is in development less time than 3DS/PS4 versions of game, so probably Switch version couldn't be finished on time with alongside 3DS/PS4 versions.

Probably sometime in June I would guess, though who knows. But that will lead right to Splatoon 2 in July ... so basically in Japan especially, Nintendo's got this thing on easy street. 

As I edited into my post ... 3DS got Mario 3D Land, Monster Hunter 3G, and Mario Kart 7 in a 5 week period and that period was among the best for the 3DS in its lifecycle there. In fact I believe that holiday season in Japan for 3DS was actually better than the one with the new Pokemon game for 3DS a couple of years later. It helps those games and the hardware, it doesn't hurt. 

As for not being finished on time, I think they just didn't prioritize it, but I think there's also a bit of stupidity ... it's a Nintendo system that's portable ... yeah lets put that on the back burner and make the PS4 version the priority. They bet on the wrong horse. For Final Fantasy I can understand because they have to consider the Western audience, but DQ doesn't have much of a Western following so all those PS4s in the West may as well be moot for DQ. Didn't they announce DQXI for NX like almost two years ago too? LOL. Is it that terribly hard to port a game over the course of two years? 

Switch is going to destroy PS4 in Japan, when S-E sees the type of hardware boost Switch gets from Splatoon 2 they will be kicking themselves.

It seems that Switch is new 3DS in Japan, actualy Switch started selling better than 3DS in same period (7. week on market).
Also Switch is still still supply-constrained, and next few months Switch will have MK8D, Minecraft, ARMS and Splatoon 2, so Switch will continue having strong sales in next moths too.

Switch should outsell 3DS for the next few weeks, months even launch alligned as the 3DS lineup post-launch was terrible. Likely though 3DS turns it up in holiday, it's fall onwards was monstrous with tha huge price drop + Mario 3D Land + Monster Hunter 3G + Mario Kart 7 as mentioned before. Not sure if Mario Odyessy + Xenoblade 2 can match that alone, gonna need some help. 

In Japan though 3DS has been a huge success, it's the second highest selling game system there ever (behind DS of course). More than any Playstation platform period. 

So I'm not really sure what the hell was going on in the minds of Japanese developers. It's a Nintendo system ... that can be played portably. You reeeeally need to "wait and see" on it? 

Yes, few weeks after MK8D launch Switch will completely overtake 3DS. I don't have any doubts that Switch will be very popular in holiday season in any case.

They definatly played "wait and see" aprouch, but buy time, more and more Japanese developers will be on Switch board, I think some time next year Switch will be lead platform for Japanese developers, and actualy Switch will have better support than 3DS in Japan beacuse for Switch can be made even big AAA game and PS4 ports that will be in portable format also on Switch.