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None of the blockbuster 3rd party games coming to switch 2017

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Switch lifetime figures?

12-15 million 72 7.05%
 
15-20 million 58 5.68%
 
20-25 million 78 7.64%
 
25-30 million 119 11.66%
 
Way more than the above 694 67.97%
 
Total:1,021
Zod95 said:
RolStoppable said:

But what zorg said is true. The margin by which Switch is beating Wii U launch-aligned is growing at a rapid rate with each passing day. Three months after launch the Wii U was selling about 40k units per week. Switch is comfortably doing 160k units per week.

...

Switch isn't following the Wii U's pattern at all. Switch only needed three months to beat the Wii U's entire peak year performance.

I only see 9 weeks of HW data for NS. How do you see 3 months?

RolStoppable said:

To break it down by years, your prediction of 20m would have to look similar to this when taking the common sales curve for a struggling system into account:

2017 - 5m
2018 - 6m
2019 - 5m
2020 - 3m
2021 - 1m

But by the end of June Switch will already be closing in on 5m and then there's still half a year left, including the holiday season. Your prediction has no grounds in reality anymore, because it would require a dropoff in sales rate that is unprecedented.

WiiU was unprecedented:

2012 + 2013: 5.3M

2014: 3.6M

2015: 3.5M

2016: 1.5M

2017: 0.1M

It would only require this for NS:

2017: 9M

2018: 6M

2019: 4M

2020: 1M

But let me know your prediction. It's easy to "counter-bet", not so easy to bet.

I am extrapolating month 3 sales based on month 2 sales and the knowledge that Switch is still selling through its stock quickly. There's no good reason to assume that month 3 sales will be notably lower than month 2 sales. But even ignoring that. VGC has been showing weekly sales of ~200k after the launch month. Wii U had weekly sales of ~40k. That's a huge gap.

Your Wii U breakdown combines 2012 and 2013 for a period of 14 months that includes two holiday seasons. This skews the numbers and is not an accurate or honest representation of how Wii U performed.

My prediction for Switch lifetime sales is more than 100m units. I am obviously factoring in that Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS and that's the most blatant mistake in your prediction. You are aware that your prediction will be very wrong if Switch is also replacing the 3DS.

My signature contains the link to one of my threads, but I post it for convenience because many members have disabled signatures in their VGC settings.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224719

The thread was created shortly after the Switch presentation in January and calls out all predictions of 50m or less. This means that I was and am so confident in Switch that I consider anything below 60m ridiculous.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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RolStoppable said:

This means that I was and am so confident in Switch that I consider anything below 60m ridiculous.

Mathmatically anything below 45m doesn't make much sense after it posts a 10m+ first year.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Barkley said:
RolStoppable said:

This means that I was and am so confident in Switch that I consider anything below 60m ridiculous.

Mathmatically anything below 45m doesn't make much sense after it posts a 10m+ first year.

Indeed, but you know from the "When will PS4 outsell Wii" thread that maths is a difficult subject.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Barkley said:

Mathmatically anything below 45m doesn't make much sense after it posts a 10m+ first year.

Indeed, but you know from the "When will PS4 outsell Wii" thread that maths is a difficult subject.

you dont think PS4 will pass 100 million?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
RolStoppable said:

Indeed, but you know from the "When will PS4 outsell Wii" thread that maths is a difficult subject.

you dont think PS4 will pass 100 million?

I think there's no way that it doesn't pass 100m. Never believed otherwise since Microsoft's Xbox One reveal. PS vs. Xbox is a zero sum game, so if Xbox One was going to struggle to sell 50m with projected lifetime sales of 160-170m between Sony and Microsoft, then PS4 had to cross 100m for sure.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Around the Network
greencactaur said:
I mean those games couldn't run on Switch even if they tried TBH. The Switch imo will take 2nd place ultimately.

No matter how weak you think the switch is, if ps3 can run gtav and mgsv then switch can run these if they wanted it to



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Volterra_90 said:
Zod95 said:

Make a prediction for NS's lifetime sales.

Right now I'd say 80M. Bold one. We'll see in a few years time though!

Why is it bold?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

SpokenTruth said:
Zod, are you aware they've already upped their production run to 18 million for the fiscal year?

I didn't hear your prediction for NS's lifetime sales.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Bolded the games which had Bundles. Of course this pushed their numbers pretty high. What do you think Nintendoland would have sold without it's bundle? I doubt it could have beaten 1-2 Switch, heck, I don't think it would have reached 500k lifetime without the bundle, as not even casuals picked it up. Had they bundled 1-2 Switch, it would already be close to Nintendoland's total sales and would have easely outsold it 2-1 by now?

Which leaves us with 1-2 Switch and Wii Play, as they didn't got bundled with a console. But Wii Play came with a Wiimote for barely more than a Wiimote alone, so naturally many (including me) bought it for the Wiimote and enjoyed the fact that they had a partygame to play when everybody got drunk.

So all in all, a very unfair comparision, though I don't think you realised that before posting.

I agree to some extent with what you're saying. But Nintendo Land was a disaster. 2 times that isn't pretty either. Moreover, I don't remember Wii Fit being bundled. If it ever was, it was not significant.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 said:
SpokenTruth said:
Zod, are you aware they've already upped their production run to 18 million for the fiscal year?

I didn't hear your prediction for NS's lifetime sales.

Greater than 20 million.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."