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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Only Minecraft and Street Fighter for May? Can Switch sell well this month?

 

Switch will be ok?

Switch will win May NPD 227 54.57%
 
Nintendo will drop Switch 30 7.21%
 
Wii U shall rise and take the throne 79 18.99%
 
See results 80 19.23%
 
Total:416
Slownenberg said:

Yeah I don't get why you think it will fail so miserably. The Switch is very obviously the successor to both the Wii U and the 3DS, It's a console that doubles as a portable, how is this not clear?? Of course Nintendo is gonna try to say Switch and 3DS will live alongside each other, they still want to sell the 3DS!! Didn't they say the same thing when talking about a 3 system strategy when they tried to say the DS and GBA would sell together with the console (or was it 3DS and DS?).

Two years from now 3DS sales should be dead and Nintendo should be able to sell perhaps a slightly smaller version of the Switch for under $200, picking up the handheld only people. With a release of a full fledged Pokemon game around then the Switch will start eating up their traditional handheld crowd.

As has been said, the Wii U + 3DS market is currently ~80 million and will be over 90 million by the time the 3DS is done selling. There is NO other handheld out or probably coming out anytime soon to compete for the 3DS market (and that's not even including the 15 million PSVita market). And it is pretty clear the Switch is going to be a lot more popular with console gamers than the Wii U, so the Switch selling the combined Wii U + 3DS market of ~90 million is a pretty good bet, give or take let's say 20 million. Saying it's gonna sell 20-25 million just honestly feels like trolling.

Like you, I believe the Switch will steal some handheld sales. That's why I expect it to sell 10M more than the WiiU.

I'm just not as optimistic as you seem to be. The handheld market was over 230M in the last generation and it shrank to 80M this generation. I don't expect it to remain the same in the next few years and I think Switch will only get a fraction of what's left.

I'm not trolling at all. I'm being honest (telling exactly what I feel), transparent (explaining everything you ask me) and commited to my own predictions (having them in my signature, which appears in every post of every thread I'm in).

25M in January 2014 for the WiiU's lifetime sales was also felt like I was trolling. Now we all know I was being too generous.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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Zod95 said:

zorg1000 said:

My signs pointing to Switch becoming the 3DS successor basically is from what Iwata said in the years leading up to Switch's release about struggling to support two seperate hardware lines and aiming for a fully unified platform. That can't happen if 3DS gets a successor that isn't Switch.

The vision and reality are always different. I trust more the claims of today than the hopes of yesterday.

 

zorg1000 said:

Pretty much the entire world will disagree with you that Wii U had a better concept and software output than Wii U, like you are literally the only person i have ever seen say that. The concept of Wii was to get make gaming accessible to everybody and feature unique software, the concept of Wii U was to get ports of PS3/360 games. Wii had a steady flow of 1st party software with a few droughts in there (most notably mid 08-mid 09 and the final year) and had well over 100 3rd party games each year, Wii U had 3-4 months droughts between 1st party releases and only had like 100 3rd party titles in its entire lifespan.

Maybe we're talking about different things. I was referring to the fact that the WiiU was designed not only to deliver an innovative experience (2-screen gameplay and all the sensors, etc.) but also to cater to the HD market the PS3 and X360 were dominating. That double strategy seemed to be a better concept than the Wii (which won the previous generation with only 37% of the market share, because it was out of the HD experience). As a result, the WiiU's beginning had several top-quality HD titles from 3rd parties (that's what I meant by a better software output).

Switch is even better, once it has a more powerful machine that is also closer to the PC architecture, while keeping the previous innovations (sensors from the Wii and 2-screen gameplay from the WiiU) and going even further (with the different portable experiences). As a result, it's getting 3rd party titles that the previous Nintendo consoles didn't get.

Switch is walking the same path WiiU did and I see nothing but the same fate.

is there a reason you ignored the other 3 paragraphs?

the claims of today do not contradict their vision from 2014/2015. stating that they are looking into ways to appeal to handheld gamers, that they arent working on a 3DS successor at the moment and that 3DS can coexist with Switch at the moment do not in any way, shape or form disprove that Nintendo has created a single unified platform going forward.

Wii had great marketing, an easy to understand concept that made gaming more accessible & had a steady flow of unique software.

Wii U had terrible marketing, a poor concept revolving around getting ports and had constant droughts.

Switch so far has great marketing, an easy to understand concept and has a steady flow of unique software.

Im not saying Switch will sell like Wii, im just saying in terms of marketing, design & software it shares much more in common with Wii than with Wii U.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Marketing to kids = shitty marketing.

Even kids don't want things specifically marketed only to them.

That was one of the Wii U's big mistakes.

It's not just "vague" shitty marketing.

Switch is very obviously heavily marketed to adult males.



zorg1000 said:
fedfed said:

Oh Yes - true... I want that!

from a 1st party standpoint it seems like Nintendo has something roughly every 1.5 months this year.

Early March-Breath of the Wild & 1,2 Switch

Late April-Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

Mid June-ARMS

Late July-Splatoon 2

September-Fire Emblem Warriors

November-Super Mario Odyssey

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is also slated for 2017 but I could see it being pushed back to 2018. But to counter that I almost gaurantee Nintendo has 1-2 surprises for this fall to be announced at E3, probably Smash Bros Deluxe and perhaps a medium sized game similar in scope to Captain Toad or something.

If Nintendo can keep a similar output going forward of 2 big 1st party releases every quarter along with a handful of small-medium sized indie, Japanese & kid/family titles in between and the occasional mainstream western title than it will have a solid flow of releases to keep momentum going.

Agree, I definitely can see Smash Bros port of Pokemon like October game, and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 can easily be just for Japan December game.



zorg1000 said:

is there a reason you ignored the other 3 paragraphs?

the claims of today do not contradict their vision from 2014/2015. stating that they are looking into ways to appeal to handheld gamers, that they arent working on a 3DS successor at the moment and that 3DS can coexist with Switch at the moment do not in any way, shape or form disprove that Nintendo has created a single unified platform going forward.

Wii had great marketing, an easy to understand concept that made gaming more accessible & had a steady flow of unique software.

Wii U had terrible marketing, a poor concept revolving around getting ports and had constant droughts.

Switch so far has great marketing, an easy to understand concept and has a steady flow of unique software.

Im not saying Switch will sell like Wii, im just saying in terms of marketing, design & software it shares much more in common with Wii than with Wii U.

I'm very busy these days, I have very little time to answer and I focus on what I believe it's worth arguing. I don't mean to ignore any of your comments.

Battery life can be improved and revisions do appear, but it's not that simple. If it was, PSP would have sold much more than DS. A console must be born with a purpose and stay laser-focused on its niche. X360 for example had a ton of wonderful arcade downloadable games. That was not its focus. Those games could not eat market share from the Wii's casual market. Same thing with PS3's Move (which was even better than Wii Motion). Switch is a home console and will always be seen as that. How many consoles do you know that have been able to change their marketing orientation along the way?

This claim does contradict the vision you talked about: "We are thinking of ways that we will be able to continue bringing portable gaming systems out".

What do you mean by great/terrible marketing? You're referring to what?

In my opinion, the WiiU had a good concept and it was easy to understand. In just a few words: 2-screen gameplay. The droughts came when PS4 and XOne appeared. Switch has a good concept but it's not as easy to understand. I had to see its initial trailer several times to fully comprehend it. And it will have droughts, believe me. When PS5 and Xbox 4 appear, they will make the same shadow to Switch that PS4 and XOne did to WiiU.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Around the Network
Soundwave said:
Marketing to kids = shitty marketing.

Even kids don't want things specifically marketed only to them.

That was one of the Wii U's big mistakes.

It's not just "vague" shitty marketing.

Switch is very obviously heavily marketed to adult males.

Zelda, 1-2 Switch, Bomberman, Dragon Quest, Puyo Puyo and Just Dance are the 6 NS best sellers at the moment. That's definitely not a console havily marketed to adult males. Even the WiiU had ZombiU as a launch game (how is that more marketed to kids?).



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 said:
Soundwave said:
Marketing to kids = shitty marketing.

Even kids don't want things specifically marketed only to them.

That was one of the Wii U's big mistakes.

It's not just "vague" shitty marketing.

Switch is very obviously heavily marketed to adult males.

Zelda, 1-2 Switch, Bomberman, Dragon Quest, Puyo Puyo and Just Dance are the 6 NS best sellers at the moment. That's definitely not a console havily marketed to adult males. Even the WiiU had ZombiU as a launch game (how is that more marketed to kids?).

Well, about young adult males target, I can see that cow milking game going strong at frat parties!   



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TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Moderated - Miguel



Zod95 said:
zorg1000 said:

is there a reason you ignored the other 3 paragraphs?

the claims of today do not contradict their vision from 2014/2015. stating that they are looking into ways to appeal to handheld gamers, that they arent working on a 3DS successor at the moment and that 3DS can coexist with Switch at the moment do not in any way, shape or form disprove that Nintendo has created a single unified platform going forward.

Wii had great marketing, an easy to understand concept that made gaming more accessible & had a steady flow of unique software.

Wii U had terrible marketing, a poor concept revolving around getting ports and had constant droughts.

Switch so far has great marketing, an easy to understand concept and has a steady flow of unique software.

Im not saying Switch will sell like Wii, im just saying in terms of marketing, design & software it shares much more in common with Wii than with Wii U.

I'm very busy these days, I have very little time to answer and I focus on what I believe it's worth arguing. I don't mean to ignore any of your comments.

Battery life can be improved and revisions do appear, but it's not that simple. If it was, PSP would have sold much more than DS. A console must be born with a purpose and stay laser-focused on its niche. X360 for example had a ton of wonderful arcade downloadable games. That was not its focus. Those games could not eat market share from the Wii's casual market. Same thing with PS3's Move (which was even better than Wii Motion). Switch is a home console and will always be seen as that. How many consoles do you know that have been able to change their marketing orientation along the way?

This claim does contradict the vision you talked about: "We are thinking of ways that we will be able to continue bringing portable gaming systems out".

What do you mean by great/terrible marketing? You're referring to what?

In my opinion, the WiiU had a good concept and it was easy to understand. In just a few words: 2-screen gameplay. The droughts came when PS4 and XOne appeared. Switch has a good concept but it's not as easy to understand. I had to see its initial trailer several times to fully comprehend it. And it will have droughts, believe me. When PS5 and Xbox 4 appear, they will make the same shadow to Switch that PS4 and XOne did to WiiU.

@bolded, I have no idea how you came to that conclusion or how its relevant to the discussion.

The purpose/concept wouldnt have to change, the main goal of Switch is to consolidate their home & handheld audiences and software output onto a single unified platform. Currently they have a single device that acts as both because that is the easiest way to demonstrate the concept. Later on, once the concept of Switch is firmly established than they can release seperate devices that cater to the individual audiences.

For example,

Switch Go-5" screen, built in controls, 4-8hr battery life, $199.99

Switch TV-microconsole form factor w/Pro Controller, $199.99

These devices will still have the same branding & same software, its just giving consumers more options if they prefer one style over the other.

Great/terrible marketing as in Wii had extensive advertsing found everywhere& had an easy to understand concept while Wii U was primarily advertised on kids networks and nowhere else & the majority of people either didnt realize it existed or thought it was an expensive tablet add-on for Wii.

2 screen gameplay worked great for DS because both screens are in your line of sight simultaneously. It did not work great for Wii U because you had to constantly look from one screen to the other making it only useful for a map/inventory screen that you only had to glance at seldomly.

Wii U droughts happened instantly. It had a solid amount of launch titles but no notable 1st party titles until 9 months later and only a handful of 3rd party titles in that time frame.

It seems like you are arguing for the sake of argument because many of the things you are arguing against are undeniable facts.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Well those who do not have it yet likely have not played Zelda, throw in Mario Kart 8 and the fear of it being unavailable later in the year when other games like Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey, and Xenoblade 2 drop and thats a wrap. There is no reason why it would not continue to sell out in May.



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