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Forums - Sales Discussion - SuperData: 2.4 million Switch's Sold First Month

RolStoppable said:
b00moscone said:
How would this stack up with other consoles? Though even without knowing, that would be an impressive number to achieve!

It would stack up pretty well.

Wii sold ~3.5m through its first 1.5 months of availability.
PS4 sold ~4.2m through its first 1.5 months.

Those are the only systems that would beat Switch if half a month is tacked on and the SuperData estimate turns out to be correct.

I see, it does indeed stack up well! While I don't expect it to keep up with these consoles, I do expect it to certainly keep up throughout the year. 

Also another thing to note is that if this estimate is accurate, then Nintendo definitely did not lie about ramping up production, making the "Nintendo limits stock!!!" thing more redundant then it was before



 

NNID: b00moscone

Switch ID: SW-5475-6755-1986

3DS friend-Code: 4613-6380-5406

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It seems like a slight overestimate from where it should be from VGC + NPD + MC numbers, but still sort of reasonable. Since US and Japan made up some 62% of sales on launch week, and stand right now combined at some 1.35m, the remaining 38% would bring sales after a month to 2.17m, if it followed a similar sales pattern to the US and Japan.

It also allows us to more or less estimate current weekly sales at something around 150,000 a week (guesstimating the drop-off patterns outside of Japan).





 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:

It seems like a slight overestimate from where it should be from VGC + NPD + MC numbers, but still sort of reasonable. Since US and Japan made up some 62% of sales on launch week, and stand right now combined at some 1.35m, the remaining 38% would bring sales after a month to 2.17m, if it followed a similar sales pattern to the US and Japan.

It also allows us to more or less estimate current weekly sales at something around 150,000 a week (guesstimating the drop-off patterns outside of Japan).



NPD+Media Create has Switch at just under 1.5 million, not 1.35 million

NPD-909k

MC-565k



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Superdata is not reliable.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

irstupid said:
This the same superdata that predicted that the switch would sell 5 million in all of 2017?

Superdata as a forecasting company is a joke at this point.They are ALWAYS wrong(when they try to predict things), and they always reajust them.i mean, anyone here can do that, and do a better job.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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zorg1000 said:
haxxiy said:

It seems like a slight overestimate from where it should be from VGC + NPD + MC numbers, but still sort of reasonable. Since US and Japan made up some 62% of sales on launch week, and stand right now combined at some 1.35m, the remaining 38% would bring sales after a month to 2.17m, if it followed a similar sales pattern to the US and Japan.

It also allows us to more or less estimate current weekly sales at something around 150,000 a week (guesstimating the drop-off patterns outside of Japan).



NPD+Media Create has Switch at just under 1.5 million, not 1.35 million

NPD-909k

MC-565k

But that MC number does include a week inside April, does it not?For march it would be around 500k, if Im not mistaken



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

b00moscone said:

I see, it does indeed stack up well! While I don't expect it to keep up with these consoles, I do expect it to certainly keep up throughout the year. 

Also another thing to note is that if this estimate is accurate, then Nintendo definitely did not lie about ramping up production, making the "Nintendo limits stock!!!" thing more redundant then it was before

I don't see why it can't keep up with them.

I have been saying this for a while and sme may think I am crazy; but the NS will eventually cannibalize the sales of the 3DS. So that means it would sell at least as good as a mobile nintendo console. So there isn't a reason why it doesn't sell 60-80M by the time its all said and done and most likely more.

The thing is that the only thing the 3DS has going for it right now is price, but there is absolutely no reason why both consoles should co-exist... its just redundant on nintendos part.Once the NS hits $200, thats the end for the 3DS, and soon we will start seeing a lot of games that would have typically beeen on the 3DS end up being on the NS.

Who in their right mind will buy a dedicated handheld when you can buy a handheld/home console hybrid that can give you a gaming experinece 10 times better than the 3DS with significantly more functionality. I am sure nintendo knows this too, even believe its part of their master plan but obviously they wouldn't come out and say that now as long as the 3DS keeps selling well. But when the NS price startts going down, it will just be a natural switch.

I can say this much... this holiday and those to follw the NS is gonna be the new hot item for soccer moms buying a "babysitter" for their kids. It will keep their kids busy at home, and it will allow them take it along in the car. Just wait till you start seeing official protective drop proof cases from nintendo.

My biggest shock is why this all isn't obvious to everyone.



is this good or bad?



 

Nautilus said:
zorg1000 said:

NPD+Media Create has Switch at just under 1.5 million, not 1.35 million

NPD-909k

MC-565k

But that MC number does include a week inside April, does it not?For march it would be around 500k, if Im not mistaken

NPD too...

March is a 5 weeks month... Actually, every last month of a quarter has five weeks.

 

Nintendo's FY317  which begins in April 2016, ends on the 31st of March 2017 , while the 5th week of March ends on the 2nd of April... So it's not really a week inside april but there are five weeks months that have a couple of days from the following month...



Intrinsic said:
b00moscone said:

I see, it does indeed stack up well! While I don't expect it to keep up with these consoles, I do expect it to certainly keep up throughout the year. 

Also another thing to note is that if this estimate is accurate, then Nintendo definitely did not lie about ramping up production, making the "Nintendo limits stock!!!" thing more redundant then it was before

I don't see why it can't keep up with them.

I have been saying this for a while and sme may think I am crazy; but the NS will eventually cannibalize the sales of the 3DS. So that means it would sell at least as good as a mobile nintendo console. So there isn't a reason why it doesn't sell 60-80M by the time its all said and done and most likely more.

The thing is that the only thing the 3DS has going for it right now is price, but there is absolutely no reason why both consoles should co-exist... its just redundant on nintendos part.Once the NS hits $200, thats the end for the 3DS, and soon we will start seeing a lot of games that would have typically beeen on the 3DS end up being on the NS.

Who in their right mind will buy a dedicated handheld when you can buy a handheld/home console hybrid that can give you a gaming experinece 10 times better than the 3DS with significantly more functionality. I am sure nintendo knows this too, even believe its part of their master plan but obviously they wouldn't come out and say that now as long as the 3DS keeps selling well. But when the NS price startts going down, it will just be a natural switch.

I can say this much... this holiday and those to follw the NS is gonna be the new hot item for soccer moms buying a "babysitter" for their kids. It will keep their kids busy at home, and it will allow them take it along in the car. Just wait till you start seeing official protective drop proof cases from nintendo.

My biggest shock is why this all isn't obvious to everyone.

You kinda of just answered your own question there. Along with some ports of Japanese games and such keeping a bit of interest going, the reason the 3DS is still selling decently is because of its price. A cheap handheld along with cheap, kid-friendly games is gonna look a lot more appealing to a parent than an expensive $300 piece of kit. Furthermore, a small, but existant group of people who like to wait until the end of a console's life will be picking it up, now that it and its games are cheap. People who instead want to spend less on a system with an established lineup of excellent game is the kind of person that'll buy the 3DS.

Not saying of course that the Switch isn't going to phase out the 3DS sometime, it obviously will as it is with any console cycle, but until its discontinued and/or isn't being supported with games, as shown it's still going to sell enough for it to be worthwhile, and revenue from two platforms is better than one if they're able to do so. Also to note by the time the Switch is down to $200 (If it ever will be) i'm sure the 3DS will be but a distant memory anyways



 

NNID: b00moscone

Switch ID: SW-5475-6755-1986

3DS friend-Code: 4613-6380-5406

PSN: b00mosconi