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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Unconfirmed: Nintendo Raises Switch Forecast To 16 Mill From 8 Mill For Next Fiscal Year

Ariakon on 17 March 2017
Miyamotoo said:
Soundwave said:

Probably should be noted though, Nintendo has by now a fairly established history of projecting shipment forecasts which they fail to reach.

I think virtually every year of both 3DS and Wii U, they ended up selling less than what they forecast, in many cases their projections are hilarious to look back at now -- ie: Wii U was supposed to sell 10 million in it's first full fiscal year. 3DS was far off some of Nintendo's ambitious targets as well.

Difference is that they decided to double production after Switch launch and after they saw market demand for Switch, while initial plan was to produce 8m Switch in its 1st year. Nintendo itself said they will raise production numbers if demand is strong.

Also production plan and sales forecast are two different things, you better add that ("to produce" not "forecast") in hadline.

True, but they also placed Wii U's forecasts at 9 million well after launch, and it ended up doing about a third of that. As you say, though, production plans and sales forecasts are very different. I'm still very bullish on Switch, I just think that 16m might be a bit high. I could definitely see 12 to 13 million, though. 



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Wyrdness on 17 March 2017

16m seems more realistic than 8m as Switch is replacing two platforms.



Jranation on 17 March 2017

Oh fuck! But it could happen if:
- Arms goes really well
- Splatoon 2 does 5 mil before 2018
- Mario Odyssey is a hit!
- New Animal Crossing!
- Pokemon stars is this November!
- Super Smash Deluxe gets released by then!
- Zelda BOTW Have awesome legs!
- The casuals loving 1 2 Switch!

I would love it to outsell the Wii U LT in 1 year! 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Miyamotoo on 17 March 2017
Otter said:
Miyamotoo said:

Retro game is almost certain 2018. game. March is too early for new Switch model, only one year.

Possibly a Vo.2 as oppose to an actual rebranded model. The same way we got the PS4 with less power consumption and slightly modified internals in summer 2015

Nintendo never doing revision of hardware just after one year, maybe end of 2018. or beginning of 2019, but not before that. Even PS4 got revision closer to after 2 years, not to after 1 year.

 

Vor said:
ppl seems to forget that Switch is supposed to replace both the 3ds and the wii u so I think its not that unrealistic. 16m is a bit below both the 3ds and the wii u's peak year (13.95 and 3.6 mil. respectively), CMIIW.

Thats not so simple, even if Switch is aiming at handheld and home console market in same time, you can't really say just WiiU+3DS numbers.

 

Ariakon said:
Miyamotoo said:

Difference is that they decided to double production after Switch launch and after they saw market demand for Switch, while initial plan was to produce 8m Switch in its 1st year. Nintendo itself said they will raise production numbers if demand is strong.

Also production plan and sales forecast are two different things, you better add that ("to produce" not "forecast") in hadline.

True, but they also placed Wii U's forecasts at 9 million well after launch, and it ended up doing about a third of that. As you say, though, production plans and sales forecasts are very different. I'm still very bullish on Switch, I just think that 16m might be a bit high. I could definitely see 12 to 13 million, though. 

Yup, if they have plan to produce in FY 2017 (note that plan could easily change during year), I dont think they planning to sell exactly same number but they could aim at something like 12-14m to sell.



Asriel on 17 March 2017

Yes, it should be clarified in the original WSJ article that this is a 12 month production plan, not a shipment plan. They plan to produce 16 million (up from 8 million) and ship "at least" 10 million Switch units in their next fiscal year. That really needs to be in the original post. WSJ also state that launch month shipments will actually be 2.5 million, so 25% higher than Nintendo's initial estimates.

If true, the dramatic increase in production likely isn't just a result of launch success, though. I would guess that Nintendo have had confirmation of further software support from other publishers, and have a firmer idea of their own software schedule for the next 18 months or so, which means they're confident enough to increase production based on their software slate.

My bet would be Nintendo now feel confident that Pokemon Stars will be ready to launch on Switch this Christmas, and that Animal Crossing will be ready in 2018. They might also have been able to secure key Japanese software from publishers like Capcom (Monster Hunter) and Level 5.



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Barkley on 17 March 2017
Asriel said:

Yes, it should be clarified in the original WSJ article that this is a 12 month production plan, not a shipment plan. They plan to produce 16 million (up from 8 million) and ship "at least" 10 million Switch units in their next fiscal year. That really needs to be in the original post.

Well that changes things, 16 million did seem high for shipments.



pastro243 on 17 March 2017

16 million looked like too much, this sounds more realistic



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xl-klaudkil on 17 March 2017

16 mill is higher then even the ps4.
And ps4 launch was already bigger.

I hope it does, but don't expect it.



 

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Jranation on 17 March 2017
Asriel said:

Yes, it should be clarified in the original WSJ article that this is a 12 month production plan, not a shipment plan. They plan to produce 16 million (up from 8 million) and ship "at least" 10 million Switch units in their next fiscal year. That really needs to be in the original post. WSJ also state that launch month shipments will actually be 2.5 million, so 25% higher than Nintendo's initial estimates.

If true, the dramatic increase in production likely isn't just a result of launch success, though. I would guess that Nintendo have had confirmation of further software support from other publishers, and have a firmer idea of their own software schedule for the next 18 months or so, which means they're confident enough to increase production based on their software slate.

My bet would be Nintendo now feel confident that Pokemon Stars will be ready to launch on Switch this Christmas, and that Animal Crossing will be ready in 2018. They might also have been able to secure key Japanese software from publishers like Capcom (Monster Hunter) and Level 5.

Ah! That makes more sense!



Pocky Lover Boy! 

AnthonyW86 on 17 March 2017

10 million would be extremely dissapointing, 16 million sounded acceptable to me. Even 3DS did around 13.5 million in it's second FY. Not to mention Switch seems to be their only system this gen.